Coronavirus 12: Don't Abandon Hope

[Samson]

Merck’s COVID pill loses its lustre

The full results, decreased the risk of hospitalization from COVID-19 by 30% — down from a 50% reduction observed early in the trial.

Monoclonal antibody treatments, by contrast, reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 by up to 85%. But they are costly and need to be administered intravenously.
​

Could it make the pandemic worse?

Although Merck reported similar rates of side effects for trial participants taking the antiviral as for those on the placebo, some researchers are worried that molnupiravir’s novel mechanism of action has the potential for long-term safety risks. The antiviral works by incorporating itself into the virus’s RNA, creating errors and hamstringing SARS-CoV-2’s ability to replicate.

Intentionally introducing mutations into viral RNA might create a more dangerous version of SARS-CoV-2, critics say. In such a scenario, mutations could occur in the virus’s spike protein, which it uses to gain entry to human cells, making the virus more transmissible or able to evade vaccines.​

 

[The_J]

Pretty disappointing :/.

 

[Samson]

There is some new study about the severity of omicron. This recently came out from the authors, but it seems the primary data source is this twitter thread. That in itself drives me a bit mad, especially now twitter is blocking hotlinking. Some of the images are clearly screenshots of presentations as they have the pointer icon on them:



The biggest news is this seems to be the biggest dataset indicating that omicron is less severe:





But it is really infective:

 

[The_J]

There is some new study about the severity of omicron. This recently came out from the authors, but it seems the primary data source is this twitter thread.

How do you conclude that?

 

[Samson]

How do you conclude that?

Reading the thread, skimming the paper and some news articles. I could very well be wrong. There is data in the thread which is not in the paper, and that is the only paper I found referenced in the thread.

 

[Takhisis]

Jared Polis didn’t actually answer either question that was posed to him.

He's a politician!

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

78,610 confirmed cases were announced on Wednesday, the highest number of daily cases since the pandemic began. - UK

 

[thetrooper]

London calling

 

[Grisu]

78,610 confirmed cases were announced on Wednesday, the highest number of daily cases since the pandemic began. - UK

In Switzerland we reached a new record number of infections last week (roughly 12k) a week ago. The fact that we basically have the lowest vaccination rate of any western country doesn't help either

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

In Switzerland we reached a new record number of infections last week (roughly 12k) a week ago. The fact that we basically have the lowest vaccination rate of any western country doesn't help either

I am surprised. Culturally I would have guessed you guys would be ahead of average. Why do you think it is not the case?

 

[Grisu]

I am surprised. Culturally I would have guessed you guys would be ahead of average. Why do you think it is not the case?

we can't afford it

but joking aside, I don't really know. All german speaking countries have very low vaccination rates, with switzerland being still a bit lower than Austria and Germany. Some say it's because homeopathic humbug medicine is pretty popular here, but I'm not sure if that is enough of an explanation. Another reason might be that we've been hit relatively weakly on the first waves (other than spain, italy, etc. which have high vaccintion rates

And of course it doesn't help if large parts of our biggest partty spread anti-vaxxer stuff....

 

[Zardnaar]

We had around 80 cases yesterday 5 months after delta arrived.

Vax rate hit 90% with highs of 95-97%.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national...u-dhb-hits-90-percent-fully-vaccinated-target

 

[stfoskey12]

Meanwhile in the US, hospitalizations are increasing, but cases and deaths don't seem to be. I'm not entirely sure why. It might be some sort of reporting issue.

 

[Birdjaguar]

we can't afford it

but joking aside, I don't really know. All german speaking countries have very low vaccination rates, with switzerland being still a bit lower than Austria and Germany. Some say it's because...

...when you translate "covid vaccination" into German it comes out as "not beer"

 

[Drakle]

Meanwhile in the US, hospitalizations are increasing, but cases and deaths don't seem to be. I'm not entirely sure why. It might be some sort of reporting issue.

Not according to the New York Times. They have the 14 Day change as

Cases 44%
Hospitalised +22%
Deaths +40%

 

[stfoskey12]

Not according to the New York Times. They have the 14 Day change as

Cases 44%
Hospitalised +22%
Deaths +40%

The data I was looking at showed it pretty flat. But maybe the data I was looking at was funky because of Thanksgiving. I heard that NYT tries to fix that.

 

[Hrothbern]

we can't afford it

but joking aside, I don't really know. All german speaking countries have very low vaccination rates, with switzerland being still a bit lower than Austria and Germany. Some say it's because homeopathic humbug medicine is pretty popular here, but I'm not sure if that is enough of an explanation. Another reason might be that we've been hit relatively weakly on the first waves (other than spain, italy, etc. which have high vaccintion rates

And of course it doesn't help if large parts of our biggest partty spread anti-vaxxer stuff....

South Tirol, part of Italy, but a lot of German speaking people, having similar issues with low vaccination rates.

Here below an article of Politico on that.
I think the social media contact in German language with neighboring Austrian and Swiss people will also play a role.
It will not be the beer.

The richest province in Italy, often perceived as being the most efficient and having the best health care, Bolzano is perhaps a surprising contender for having the lowest vaccination rate in Italy. About 30 percent of the population is unvaccinated, according to GIMBE — a level similar to those in Germany and Austria.

As a semi-autonomous region, Bolzano has a historic disinclination to accept orders from the central government. Its tendency towards vaccine hesitancy dates back two centuries, when Tyrolean guerrillas rebelled against a smallpox vaccine mandated by the Bavarian administration.

South Tyrol had low levels of childhood vaccination before COVID, with only 68 percent of kids jabbed against measles in 2014. The pro-autonomy South Tyrolean People’s Party, which has controlled the province since 1948, has at times held ambiguous positions on vaccines and defied lockdowns last year, citing its independence.

And while Bolzano is 70 percent German speaking, a curious reversal of stereotypes has seen Italian speakers tending to be more obedient during the coronavirus pandemic. When the workplace rules came, 20 percent of school staff at German-language schools were unvaccinated compared to 3 percent in Italian schools.

German speakers also seem to have lower levels of trust in health authorities. A survey in May found just 44 percent of German speakers trusted the Italian National Institute for Health versus 70 percent of Italian speakers.

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-german-speaking-bolzano-south-tyrol-coronavirus-surge/

 

[Samson]

Omicron more into higher up in the lungs than lower down, possibly explaining both increased infectiveness and reduced severity

The researchers found that Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus, which may explain why Omicron may transmit faster between humans than previous variants. Their study also showed that the Omicron infection in the lung is significantly lower than the original SARS-CoV-2, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity.
​

Spoiler And now for something completely different :

 

[Drakle]

1% of all Americans aged over 65 have died of COVID. Not 1% of those infected. 1% of all of them.

It's amazing how much the elderly dominate politics, in terms of voting power, yet still got utterly mulched by the pandemic as the Republicans led by Trump who is also old let it rip through them. The elderly practice self-preservation personally, with even most elderly Republicans being vaccinated. But they seem to have no influence on the rest of the party on this, despite being their single largest voting demographic, and more importantly, very reliable voters. They don't act in their collective interest in staying alive, politics remains separate.

 

[Kyriakos]

That seems to be the average death rate, or very close to it, for over 65 year olds each year in the US anyway, going by a quick google:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age-and-sex-in-the-us/

Eg for 75-84 it is 0.5%, and for 85 and over it is 1.4%.
Noting that covid has been around for almost 2 years, this practically seems to make the current death rate identical (depends on the specifics for calculation, since the covid stat obviously is a total and not an average) so that's not much of a stat.