EnglishEdward
Deity
I don't have to prove the past existed, because it is convenient to forget policy failure.
[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
- Start date
I don't have to prove the past existed, because it is convenient to forget policy failure.
Snowygerry
Deity
Hm, your army launched the offensive, one thing we’ve not seen in the last two years, is success..
Just misery, and piles of dead foreigners.
Good luck with that.
Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
You don't have to prove anything period. But since you got nothing, I'll value your claim likewise.
No, the offensive we were discussing, was launched by Ukraine.
Snowygerry
Deity
That was more a counteroffensive no ?
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
Russian plot to kill Zelensky foiled, Kyiv says
The Ukrainian security service (SBU) says it has foiled a Russian plot to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian officials.Two Ukrainian government protection unit colonels have been arrested.
The SBU said they were part of a network of agents belonging to the Russian state security service (FSB).
They had reportedly been searching for willing "executors" among Mr Zelensky's bodyguards to kidnap and kill him.
Ever since Russian paratroopers attempted to land in Kyiv and assassinate President Zelensky in the early hours and days of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, plots to assassinate him have been commonplace.
The Ukrainian leader said at the start of the invasion he was Russia's "number one target".
But this alleged plot stands out from the rest. It involves serving colonels, whose job it was to keep officials and institutions safe, allegedly hired as moles.
Other targets included military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov and SBU chief Vasyl Malyuk, the agency added.
The group had reportedly planned to kill Mr Budanov before Orthodox Easter, which this year fell on 5 May.
According to the SBU, the plotters had aimed to use a mole to get information about his location, which they would then have attacked with rockets, drones and anti-tank grenades.
One of the officers who was later arrested had already bought drones and anti-personnel mines, the SBU said.
SBU head Vasyl Malyuk said the attack was supposed to be "a gift to Putin before the inauguration" - referring to Russia's Vladimir Putin who was sworn in for a fifth term as president at the Kremlin on Tuesday.
The operation turned into a failure of the Russian special services, Mr Malyuk said.
"But we must not forget - the enemy is strong and experienced, he cannot be underestimated," he added.
The two Ukrainian officials are being held on suspicion of treason and of preparing a terrorist act.
The SBU said three FSB employees oversaw the organisation and the attack.
One of them, named as Dmytro Perlin, had been recruiting "moles" since before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Another FSB employee, Oleksiy Kornev, reportedly held "conspiratorial" meetings "in neighbouring European states" before the invasion with one of the Ukrainian colonels arrested.
In a released interrogation with one of the suspects, they can be heard describing how they were paid thousands of dollars directly by parcels or indirectly through their relatives. It is not clear whether he was speaking under duress or not.
Investigators insist they monitored the men throughout. We are unlikely to know how close they came to carrying out their alleged plan.
The plot may read like a thriller but it is also a reminder of the risks Ukraine's wartime leader faces.
Last month, a Polish man was arrested and charged with planning to co-operate with Russian intelligence services to aid a possible assassination of Mr Zelensky.
At the weekend Ukraine's president appeared on the Russian interior ministry's wanted list on unspecified charges.
The foreign ministry in Kyiv condemned the move as showing "the desperation of the Russian state machine and propaganda", and pointed out that the International Criminal Court had issued a warrant for Vladimir Putin's arrest.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68968256
These thrilling stories about 159-th attempt to assassinate Zelensky tend to appear when Ukraine is losing ground.
Kislovka, Kotlyarovka and Arkhangelskoe were captured in last couple of days.
Comrade Ceasefire
Simmer slowly
Even the BBC is sounding more and more pessimistic.
'If we go home, a lot of inexperienced soldiers will die'
Under the rich, leafy cover of the Ukrainian spring, an artillery unit awaits.
Only a fraction of their job is firing rockets from their 50-year-old launcher. Most of their time is spent digging a new bunker into the hillside.
They're outgunned and outmanned by the Russian invaders, 5km (3 miles) away in the eastern Donetsk region, who are inching closer.
Incoming American ammunition is expected to help, but how the Ukrainian government is addressing its need to recruit is controversial.
A new mobilisation bill passed earlier in April was criticised for not including a limit on time served. A clause aimed at demobilising soldiers after three years was dropped at the army's request.
Now, war-weary troops have told the BBC the military needs to "rethink" how it recruits.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68932127Ukraine War:
'If we go home, a lot of inexperienced soldiers will die'
Under the rich, leafy cover of the Ukrainian spring, an artillery unit awaits.
Only a fraction of their job is firing rockets from their 50-year-old launcher. Most of their time is spent digging a new bunker into the hillside.
They're outgunned and outmanned by the Russian invaders, 5km (3 miles) away in the eastern Donetsk region, who are inching closer.
Incoming American ammunition is expected to help, but how the Ukrainian government is addressing its need to recruit is controversial.
A new mobilisation bill passed earlier in April was criticised for not including a limit on time served. A clause aimed at demobilising soldiers after three years was dropped at the army's request.
Now, war-weary troops have told the BBC the military needs to "rethink" how it recruits.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68932127Ukraine War:
that's the numbers following the days of heavy assault on fortified positions. The average since the beginning of the war is 1:3
The average during the Ukrainian offensive was 1:1.
The sources you usually quote never reported equal casualty ratio, their message has always been "glorious Ukraine is winning".
During Ukrainian offensive the losses were about 3:1 in Russia's favor, that was the reason of current Ukrainian manpower shortage, which wasn't the case a year ago when Ukraine had numerical superiority.
Thorgalaeg
Deity
False, it was reported equal casualty ratio or even in favor of Russia some days along the counteroffensive.
Totally unfounded.
Ukraine never had numerical superiority. In any case it had overwhelming material inferiority at the beginning of the war.
Nop, for example I posted multiple links to this blog, like this one:
Des chiffres et des êtres
Lorsqu’il arrive au 3 e bureau (opérations) du Grand quartier général en 1917, le commandant et futur général Emile Laure est frappé de voi...
lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com
for example, from visually confirmed losses, it was estimated to be 1:2 at the time of that post
there is no source for that.
You are confusing vehicle and manpower losses.
Ukraine has to conserve their tanks and APCs, because they have far less of them remaining - for example their Abrams losses were zero for the last several weeks because they weren't deploying them.
It doesn't mean their casualty ratio was more favorable in that same period. Quite the opposite, they very likely had to pay for their conserved vehicles, with lives of their soldiers. When they deploy tanks, they can do more tasks without putting infantry at risk, but at the same time, we begin to see reports and videos with their tanks being destroyed. Which is bad from PR point of view, as it's much harder to hide comparing to hundreds of soldiers killed by artillery fire and glide bombs.
Ukraine had numerical superiority in manpower from the beginning of their mobilization roughly until this winter. Their successful offensives were in the directions where they were outnumbering Russia several fold. As soon as they lose numerical advantage, we begin to see what we currently see. Currently it's close to parity, and they are retreating.
Vast majority of casualties are from artillery fire and aerial bombs, where Russia has serious advantage. Oryx won't show you these losses, we'll only see them from the situation on the frontline. What we see is Russia's larger mobilization pool remains untapped for the last 1.5 years, while Ukraine is scraping at the bottom.
Ukraine has to conserve their tanks and APCs, because they have far less of them remaining - for example their Abrams losses were zero for the last several weeks because they weren't deploying them.
It doesn't mean their casualty ratio was more favorable in that same period. Quite the opposite, they very likely had to pay for their conserved vehicles, with lives of their soldiers. When they deploy tanks, they can do more tasks without putting infantry at risk, but at the same time, we begin to see reports and videos with their tanks being destroyed. Which is bad from PR point of view, as it's much harder to hide comparing to hundreds of soldiers killed by artillery fire and glide bombs.
Ukraine had numerical superiority in manpower from the beginning of their mobilization roughly until this winter. Their successful offensives were in the directions where they were outnumbering Russia several fold. As soon as they lose numerical advantage, we begin to see what we currently see. Currently it's close to parity, and they are retreating.
Vast majority of casualties are from artillery fire and aerial bombs, where Russia has serious advantage. Oryx won't show you these losses, we'll only see them from the situation on the frontline. What we see is Russia's larger mobilization pool remains untapped for the last 1.5 years, while Ukraine is scraping at the bottom.
Last edited:
Thorgalaeg
Deity
Vehicles are usually filled with people when they explode (or carry a lot of people on top in the case of Russia as it is safer than going inside). About your numbers and claims, all escruplously extracted from your wishful thinking. Since the beginning of the war Ukrainian inferiority much more in material but also in manpower was commonly accepted. You started with the stories about Ukraine numerical superiority only after Russian important defeats in Kharkiv, Lyman, Kherson, etc
Last edited:
PPQ_Purple
Purple Cube
- Joined
- Oct 11, 2008
- Messages
- 5,507
He is right though.
There is plenty of evidence of Russian manpower shortages from day one of the war. Just look at all the videos of tanks operating without escorting infantry or BMPs driving around like light tanks with no infantry inside of them. It's just a reality of the way the Russian army is structured which is very different from modern western armies. It is literally built around conscripts to fill certain roles, including infantry. And since this is not a "proper" war they can't get those conscripts.
All this leads to a situation where whilst Russia has more manpower on paper that manpower is either distributed poorly or not present at all. And when it is present its often not what is needed. You can't for example expect veteran highly trained AA radar crewmen to make up a good infantry assault squad. And yet in the early days of the war this sort of thing is what we have seen the Russians doing. Worse yet, the Russians have sent their training units, those being the people who are supposed to train new conscripts into battle often with predictable results. Those being that new manpower being deployed now is shall we say substandard.
The Ukrainian army is no different, of course, but they actually mobilized a long time ago so they have the conscripts to do those jobs. And they have retained their training units and added western advisers and mercenaries to the mix as well. And so when it comes to the numbers that actually count, that being troops that are trained properly and in the jobs that need doing they have the advantage.
And of course, the average Ukrainian conscript has just a tiny bit more motivation to fight hard than his average Russian counterpart which further compounds the issue.
So it is reasonable to assume that both on an individual and on a unit level the average Ukrainian unit is going to be punching above its weight in terms of simple manpower. Where as you can expect the average Russian unit to punch under its weight. Which is why the ebb and flow of this conflict weighs so heavily on who has superiority in equipment at any given time.
Source ?
That's logical, but not backed. There are Ukrainian MBT losses visually confirmed almost every days since the beginning of the war. When had they no losses in tanks ? There is a bias on Russian side because destroying one of the 30 M1 in Ukraine is a celebration, while T-64/72/80 are common. It's like saying "if there no T-90M lost on Russian side for a few days, Russia is not using tanks"
Russia had that serious advantage for 6 months, not advancing that much faster than Ukraine last year. It still will have it for a few months then it will not be so serious.
Also no sources for "Ukraine is scrapping at the bottom", the post by Comrade Ceasefire with the BBC article that you liked reports that it's the same troops fighting since the beginning of the war.
Do I really have to prove Russia has more vehicles than Ukraine?
"Ukraine's Armed Forces possessed less than 1,800 tanks as of 2024, which was more than eight times less than Russia's."
Russia vs Ukraine military comparison 2024 | Statista
Ukraine's military capabilities were lower than Russia's for most indicators. For example, Ukraine's Army had 420,000 less active soldiers than Russia's.
www.statista.com
Russia had several times more vehicles throughout the whole war, while Ukraine had manpower advantage until after their failed and costly counteroffensive.
In Feb. 2022 Russia attacked with only ~200k soldiers, Ukraine had superior numbers even before they started mobilization.
Later in 2022 both sides increased their numbers, but since only Ukraine was mobilizing, their advantage in manpower became overwhelming until September.
Only if you somehow missed all the articles I've been posting here since the end of 2023, about Ukraine facing acute shortage of soldiers, mass draft dodging, etc.
Draft-dodging plagues Ukraine as Kyiv faces acute soldier shortage
An early burst of patriotic fervor saw draft centers swamped with volunteers, but that has waned with Vladimir Putin’s war in its third year.
www.politico.eu
"Scraping at the bottom" doesn't mean Ukraine ran out of people entirely, only out of people motivated to fight.
No idea where did they go, according to Zelensky Ukraine lost only 31 thousand troops killed.
Moderator Action: Arguing over whose propaganda is accurate is nothing more than a futile endeavor. The purpose of this thread is to post news to reveal what the differing sides are saying and allowing readers to decide for themselves what they get out of that. Please get back to news and allow readers to decide.
Thorgalaeg
Deity
Last week's have seen a massive use of motorbikes in Russian assaults. The idea is the motorcycle is harder to hit for drones, so the future casualty is supposed to ride as fast as possible to an advanced position, usually some ruin or hole, while is hunted by FPV drones, reach it if still alive, hold as much as possible waiting for reinforcements, bracing meanwhile for the incoming FPV and grenade dropping drones, artillery, Bradley fire, etc
The usual result is predictable, can't post the twitts because the usual result.
The usual result is predictable, can't post the twitts because the usual result.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Locked
