[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Gedemon]

"Evacuate" implies planning, "flee" implies spontaneity; I am wondering what the balance was.

IDK about that balance, but the offensive there was planned.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2024

Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan May 2, 2024, 8pm ET Click here to see ISW’s inter...

www.iswresearch.org

Skibitskyi assessed that Russian forces will likely begin an offensive effort towards Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts at the end of May or start of June 2024 but that Russian forces will not be able to take Kharkiv or Sumy cities. Skibitskyi stated that Russian forces have currently concentrated roughly 35,000 personnel in the international border area and plan to concentrate a total of 50,000 to 70,000 personnel for this effort, presumably before the start of the offensive operation.[6] Skibitskyi stated that this grouping will be insufficient for achieving anything beyond localized gains, consistent with ISW’s assessments that Russian forces would likely struggle to take Kharkiv City but that Russian offensive operations in the area would draw and fix Ukrainian forces from other parts of the frontline.[7] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on April 28 that Ukrainian forces are monitoring the increased number of Russian forces regrouping in the Kharkiv direction, likely referring to Belgorod Oblast, and that Ukrainian forces have reinforced defensive positions in the "most threatened" areas with additional artillery and tank units.[8]

 

[saamohod]

More than 4,000 flee Russian cross-border attacks in Ukraine's Kharkiv region​

More than 4,000 people have been evacuated from border areas in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region, the local governor said on Sunday, following a surprise cross-border Russian offensive there that began on Friday.

More than 4,000 flee Russian cross-border attacks in Ukraine's Kharkiv region

More than 4,000 people have been evacuated from border areas in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region, the local governor said on Sunday, following a surprise cross-border Russian offensive there that…

www.france24.com

These are several thousand more of Russian speaking Ukrainians who will never see their homes again.

 

[saamohod]

Armored warfare year 2024. What a time to be alive.

 

[amadeus]

Putting an economist in charge of the defense ministry doesn't sound, to me, like weakness or desperation.

Depends on what you think of McNamara, and what the job of defense minister really is—is it a military command position or organizing a large bureaucracy?

Looking at his bio, the new guy, he studied economics in the 1970’s so I’m not sure how that was taught during the Soviet days. I also have no idea how competent he was at his previous jobs, so to what extent he would be effective I can’t even begin to take a guess.

And then also there’s the question of what he would actually be allowed to do—in Russia’s system, I don’t think Putin has an open-door policy towards criticizing decisions, so maybe no matter who is in there the job is just a middle management one while the chief exec calls the shots.

 

[Verbose]

Seems like we should understand what will become of Nikolai Patrushev?

I read much of this stuff pretty skeptically. We are hearing that Russia is making tactically significant gains, well, how many of those equals a strategic gain?

Putting an economist in charge of the defense ministry doesn't sound, to me, like weakness or desperation.

It smacks of a realization this is for the looong run, and business as usual for the Russian government will not cut it. So a change is necessary. Or things will get desperate.

Shoigu's new job has been commented that it seems Putin is shuffling him to a position of internal-brokerage, behind-the-scenes-politcking – which arguably is where Shoigu's actual strengths lie (aside from loyalty to Putin).

So yes, what's up with patrushev seems the bigger question. He is an ideologue for the war, alongside Putin. It is however just possible that he is starting to be discerned as a liability – logically speaking because Putin as a fellow ideologue IS a liability – but for obvious reasons that conclusion cannot be drawn. Not by Putin ever. Not by the rest, yet...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Seems like we should understand what will become of Nikolai Patrushev?

Regarding Nikolai Patrushev and his ideology:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/04/patrushev-putin-paranoia-propaganda/678220/
----------
April 27, 2024
Patrushev stands out for the luridness and intensity of his anti-West--and especially anti-U.S.--animus.

His prominence is a reminder that, if Putin were to lose power tomorrow, his potential successors could be more warlike and expansionist

Patrushev’s greatest current fixation is “all this story with Ukraine”—a confrontation supposedly “engineered in Washington.” In 2014, by his account, the U.S. plotted the Maidan Revolution in Kyiv—a “coup d’état”—that pushed out a pro-Moscow president and sought to fill Ukrainians with “the hatred of everything Russian.” Today, Ukraine is no more than a testing ground for aging U.S. armaments as well as a place whose natural resources the West would prefer to exploit mercilessly—and “without the indigenous population.” Preserving Ukraine as a sovereign state is not in America’s plans, Patrushev claims. Afraid of attacking Russia directly, “NATO instructors herd Ukrainian boys to certain death” in the trenches. Indeed, the West is essentially perpetrating an “annihilation” of the Ukrainians, whereas Russia’s goal is to “put an end to the West’s bloody experiment to destroy the fraternal people of Ukraine.”

More and more a policy maker in his own right, [Patrushev] frequently stands in for Putin in essential negotiations with top allies, reducing Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to ceremonial duties and the signing of meaningless treaties. As the exiled Russian journalist Maxim Glikin has pointed out, Patrushev is where foreign policy meets war.

Patrushev has some sway over Russia’s nuclear strategy. In October 2009, he announced in an interview with the national newspaper Izvestia that Russian nuclear weapons were not just for use in a “large-scale” war. Contrary to the restriction spelled out in the 2000 version of Russian military doctrine, Patrushev proposed that Russia’s nukes could be deployed in a conventional regional conflict or even a local one. He also thought that in a “critical situation,” a preventive strike against an aggressor “may not be excluded.” Four months later, Putin signed a revision of the doctrine. As Patrushev had suggested, a conflict would no longer have to be “large-scale” for Russia to reach for its atomic bombs and missiles.

Yet should he survive Putin, Patrushev is certain to deploy his secret army to help guide the transition and may well have a shot at coming out on top.
----------

Patrushev's son is going places:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...a-technocrat-to-crank-up-russia-s-war-machine
----------
His son, Dmitry Patrushev, was promoted to deputy prime minister overseeing Russia’s agriculture industry in the government shuffle
----------

Patrushev is apparently going to take on a different role:
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/12/1250841515/putin-replaces-defense-minister-shoigu-ukraine-war
----------
May 12, 2024
[Kremlin spokesman Dmitry] Peskov said Sunday that Patrushev is taking on another role, and promised to reveal details in the coming days.
----------

Yeah, we do that here in the US. Out with the old, in with the new.

It seems that someone missed that memo. In the November 2024 election, Biden will be 81 and Trump will be 78.

Spoiler Civ 4 allows for Third-Party Peace Negotiations :

Thank you to everyone who participated in the Peace thread. I apologise for not getting my replies together in time. However, that thread is closed and thus we won't be discussing the topic any further. I do want to leave you with the images that I was preparing in response to Snowygerry's inquiry, to show that in Civ 4, peace can be negotiated by a third party.

 

[Snowygerry]

(....)

Yet should he survive Putin, Patrushev is certain to deploy his secret army to help guide the transition and may well have a shot at coming out on top.

Interesting, other Russians here agree with that ? I always felt we're watching the war of Russian succession in slow motion here.

Edit, Russia watchers here consider Patrushev The Elder too old, they put money on his son, now minister of agriculture iirc to become president, when Putin kicks the bucket.

 

[EvaDK]

According to YouTube blogger 'InsideRussia', Russia's new Defense Minister Belousov is known as a 'economic hawk', who has a history of blackmailing Russian businesses. So, the expectation is that he'll find additional funds and resources for Putin's war by squeezing the right business owners. But the blogger emphasizes that the change of guard is more about Putin isolating Shoigu and reducing his power and influence, than it is about Belousov.

​

 

[red_elk]

Yet another technocrat, in addition to Nabiullina, Siluanov and others.

“Belousov . . . won’t pretend to lead the army like a general with all these medals. He’s a workaholic. He’s a technocrat. He’s very honest, and Putin knows him very well,”

Who is Andrei Belousov, Russia’s new defence minister?

Putin’s appointment of pliant technocrat indicates major shift in handling of Ukraine war

www.ft.com

Also, a reincarnation

Although, this is extremely high bar to meet.

 

[saamohod]

Europe's booming trade with Kyrgyzstan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790381588255002998

 

[red_elk]

Nothing to see here. Kyrgyzstan is rapidly developing economy, people's living standards are improving and require huge amount of imported goods.

 

[saamohod]

Tonight U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken performs“Rocking to the Free World” in a bar in Kyiv

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790454002263482450

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

There were claims that the money were stolen. Dirty insinuations and Russian propaganda, of course.

Well, it won't come from Ukrainian investigative journalists any more because they would be sent to the front line.

Ukraine’s investigative journalists are facing intimidation
KYIV — “I ran investigations for 15 years before the war, and it was always hard and risky. But I think it’s worse for journalists now,” said Ukrainian reporter Yuri Nikolov, editor and co-founder of the anti-corruption investigative project Nashi Groshi (Our Money).

“They use different intimidation tactics to try to deter reporters and then, of course, they can always threaten to ship you off to the front lines,” he added with a rueful guffaw. For a man at the end of death threats, he remains remarkably upbeat.

Last year, Nikolov published several stories alleging graft in the Ukrainian military. The focus of his exposé was on defense procurement and the highly inflated prices of food and catering services for the country’s combat troops — he found suppliers were allowed to charge three times the average retail price for food.

Nikolov’s groundbreaking investigation on the shady procurement contracts prompted public uproar and led to the resignation of the country’s deputy defense minister. It also contributed to the resignation of then-Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov later in the year.

But for all the clear-out, according to Nikolov, intimidatory pressure on Ukraine’s investigative journalists is only mounting — despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s January statement that “any pressure on journalists is unacceptable.” And while the level of corruption in the country may be on the decline, it’s still far from over.

Since his stories came out, Nikolov’s been the target of harassment and denounced on social media by anonymous government supporters questioning his loyalty. Then, in January, the intimidation went further, when “two guys in camouflage came and banged on my apartment door,” he said. They terrified his ailing mother, who was there alone at the time, and plastered the door with notes accusing him of being a traitor, provocateur and draft dodger.

A video of the incident was later uploaded to a Telegram channel supportive of Zelenskyy.

Ukraine’s investigative journalists are facing intimidation

While the level of corruption in the country may be on the decline, it’s far from over — and pressure on journalists is only mounting.

www.politico.eu

 

[EnglishEdward]

Europe's booming trade with Kyrgyzstan.

More likely Europe's booming trade with Russia, via Kyrgyzstan.

 

[Snowygerry]

It seems the Y axis has been tampered with, Spain exporting for *5 million* goods to Kyrgyzstan per month(?) is hardly exceptional, Austria even less.

Seems to come a from a class political statistics 101, who is Robin Brooks ? What the EU defintely does not need is more people that manipulate graphs for political purposes

 

[saamohod]

It seems the Y axis has been tampered with, Spain exporting for *5 million* goods to Kyrgyzstan per month(?) is hardly exceptional, Austria even less.

Seems to come a from a class political statistics 101, who is Robin Brooks ? What the EU defintely does not need is more people that manipulate graphs for political purposes

The sudden trading boom in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan etc since March 2022 isn't news.

https://www.reuters.com/world/german-exports-russias-neighbours-fuel-sanctions-evasion-fears-2023-05-16/

The Kyrgyzstan route facilitating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine | Lowy Institute

Russia’s military aims in Ukraine have been furthered by its trade with the Central Asian nation.

www.lowyinstitute.org

 

[Snowygerry]

But it is tiny, Germany exporting for 80 million is maybe 0.00xx % of total export..

For comparison - Belgium in 2022 exported for 76 million to San Marino.

I do not doubt that sanctions are circumvented, most notably they are circumvented by the products that are not included, not by shipping all the way to Kyrgyzstan.

In the same year we exported for 54,7 billion gas to mostly neighbouring countries, much of that came from Russia, we should join OPEC.

Closing that "loophole" would do a whole lot more than cutting the Kyrgyzstani connection, unfortunately it would also collapse the German and possibly the French economy.

 

[Verbose]

It is VERY difficult to legally prevent individual market actors in the EU to NOT trade with the Kyrgyz like this. What would be the legal basis? – Kygyzstan is not under sanctions. And then the Kyrgyz happily re-export to Russia...

Of course, POLITICALLY the Kyrgyz can get the book thrown at them for the re-exportation by the EU. Though likely there are already all kinds of contractual obligations to not re-export to Russia in place that they just ignore/evade.

Financially that is all gravy for the Kyrgyz – long may this situation last where they can get lots of action and money for little effort. Suddenly little Kyrgyzstan has demand like a MUCH larger national economy...

And we know Moscowers brag about how everything from the west is still available to buy in their stores...

However, that is not then end of the world as far as sanctions are concerned. Provided the Kyrgyz makes these trades on a sufficiently hefty mark-up, forcing a ton on alternative costs on Russia for buying western stuff, then the sanction do in fact still work, if indirectly and somewhat reduced. Which frankly given how these things work, IS how sanctions function. Not least since the Russians are putting in overtime of evade them – including the purely political propaganda denial that they are costing Russia real money and value – they are...

The EU market actors however should start jacking up the prices until an equilibrium point is reached, when the alternative costs for the Russian consumers makes them begin to think twice, and deselect these western goods (buying Chinese of whatever instead). Clearly that doesn't seem to be the case yet, so either the EU actors or the Kyrgyz middle-men are still not maximizing profits here.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The EU market actors however should start jacking up the prices until an equilibrium point is reached, when the alternative costs for the Russian consumers makes them begin to think twice, and deselect these western goods (buying Chinese of whatever instead). Clearly that doesn't seem to be the case yet, so either the EU actors or the Kyrgyz middle-men are still not maximizing profits here.

What benefits are there for the EU in having Russians consumers switch from EU to Chinese goods ?

 

[Snowygerry]

But what is the benefit for Robin Brooks to frame it like this, I checked his resume, he seems to be part of the IMF crowd, is he British or US American ?

Once again, a major nation state like Germany exporting for 80 million is negligible.

Although no doubt even a single shipment of high value goods can significantly boost Kyrgyzstani economy, because it is tiny.

My guess is he is just opposing economic sanctions as a general principle, "free trade rules the world" ?