2011 MLB Thread

[El Justo]

raul is a gamer. sure he's lost some. but he can still get it done to a certain degree. 20 homers and 80 rbi's isn't so bad. better than the LF in queens if you are a mets fan. better return for the coin too. please try to pay attention about what i've said and have been saying about sabremetrics - they have some vaule, just not the end-all/be-all of statistics.

perhaps some of you sabre heads here should put their mojo to the task next season and jopin the cfc fantasy baseball league. we'll see how looking at stats, using sabre comparisons for draft strategy etc works out - i dare you all

 

[GamezRule]

I was at the Tigers game last night. I was disappointed.

 

[Lambert Simnel]

Cards close to within 1. It's reported that the Phils will be pitching Lee, Oswalt and then a mixed bag of relievers in the three games against the Braves. This season's Cards being as they are, we could still easily blow this, and Atlanta do still have a decent line-up (regardless of how they have performed the last month). At the moment, my gut tells me that we'll lose against Wandy, but take the next two, while the Braves win against the Bag O' Relievers TM, but drop the other two, and we have a one-off single game for the Wild Card.

I'd take that.

 

[Theige]

raul is a gamer. sure he's lost some. but he can still get it done to a certain degree. 20 homers and 80 rbi's isn't so bad. better than the LF in queens if you are a mets fan. better return for the coin too. please try to pay attention about what i've said and have been saying about sabremetrics - they have some vaule, just not the end-all/be-all of statistics.

perhaps some of you sabre heads here should put their mojo to the task next season and jopin the cfc fantasy baseball league. we'll see how looking at stats, using sabre comparisons for draft strategy etc works out - i dare you all

Honestly at this point the term "sabremetrics" is dated. They're just "statistics"

And with his superior OBP and better fielding, Jason Bay has actually been the better left fielder this season

Note: I am a Yankee fan.

I have actually been to Jason Bay's house though

 

[El Justo]

no, they're not just "statistics". to you maybe. but to the average baseball fan they are surely not and to many discerning seem heads, they are not. they are advanced statistics, partly arbitrary i may add.

you're going to say b/c bay has a better obp and that he is a better fielder that he is a better player? you should have cited some sabre stats to back up your asinine claims

again, i invite all of the sabremetricians here to join the cfc fantasy baseball league next season and we'll see how well you all can translate these mostly arbitrary stats into winning baseball

 

[illram]

Worked out fine for me, barring my unlucky week last week.

 

[Theige]

Well, of course they are the more advanced statistics.

But they are absolutely not arbitrary. To say so makes it clearly evident that you haven't bothered to understand them.

I don't really care about the "average" baseball fan, who doesn't know very much about baseball , and I don't know who you refer to when you say "many discerning heads."

Even ESPN cites "sabre" stats regularly these days, and I've seen individual players talking about their FIP

And RE: Jason Bay, of course i could cite a "sabre" stat, but those sabre stats are still calculated using "un-sabre" stats like OBP, SLG, etc, as their components. And OBP is what separates Bay from Ibanez offensively. He's still been pretty terrible as well though, and I wouldn't want either of them on my team

 

[El Justo]

i fully understand them. you insist that i don't but trust me, i do and i'm entitled to my opinion just as you are. let's leave it at that why don't we.

the average baseball fan damn well knows the nuances of the game, the statistics, most of the intricacies. are sabre-heads elitist now too? but ask these average fans, ones who are familiar with the game but don't play in fantasy leagues, watch every game, chart pitches...what they think of WAR or VORP for example. sure, explain to them what they are and the variables etc. i mean, really? anticipate the look that they will give you for a moment. it is mind numbing some of these arbitrary stats, i'll write that again some of the stats are arbitrary. are there some good sabre stats? yea, of course. OPS is great but nothing new. it's just a combo of 2 stats. but it tells a part of the story (but certainly only a part). LIPS is a neat stat. but again, it's nothing new. we've been getting bombarded with these types of stats for years, many time in-game while watching or listening to a broadcast. anyhow, my point continues to be (Thiege doesn't read all my posts) that sabre stats do hold some value but they are clearly not the end all be all of stats. and the stock that some put into them are just a joke

 

[illram]

For me, I appreciate that "sabremetrics" has led to an increased understanding of the game and helped me and others re-evaluate some old and defunct notions about baseball. I think the point is that any good GM needs to use the complete arsenal of valuation methods to structure a team and all these new statistics help complete the picture. Some of them seem arbitrary and some may indeed be a tad useless. But things like WAR and VORP are not to be used in isolation; they have a niche for a person whose job consists of not just signing the right players, but signing the right players and paying them the right amount of money. The idea is if you have a more objective and broad toolset (i.e., scouts, stats, and advanced stats) you will make a larger amount of good decisions than if you limited yourself to something else. Why limit yourself? I think this kind of thinking is what is separating bad and good GMs today. (Not talking Fantasy... I don't think you need more than basic stats, like OBP, AVG, WHIP, HR, etc., to be a good fantasy manager.)

I don't think anyone should solely rely on "sabremetric" stats but they are a useful way of digging into the extra of a player. Alot of people toss them around without knowing how to use them, or put more weight on some stats that probably should not have that much weight. There is a push to find the next best stat that tells all, and this is perhaps pushing some to use measurements that are a little out there. But when it comes to money and contracts and things a GM actually has to worry about things like VORP (by now a very used and respected stat) should come into play if you want to make an educated decision. (Or a calculated risk, really. Isn't that what every signing really is?)

 

[Theige]

The average baseball fan watches every game and independently charts pitches?

I guess I'm now a below average baseball fan

But in all seriousness, I really don't think it's possible anymore to separate out baseball "sabremetrics" from baseball "statistics". It simply is the mainstream now.

I agree with illram; you have to look at every stat in the evaluation of a player, whether or not you think the stat qualifies as a "sabremetric" or not, and you have to understand exactly what each stat means.

 

[Lambert Simnel]

...and you have to understand exactly what each stat means.

Aye, and there's the rub.

It's not that difficult to understand how each stat is calculated, nor what it is they are trying to quantify. I'd suggest that that is still a long way from understanding what the stat exactly means. Especially with composite stats, they don't inherently mean anything - they are formulated as a way of trying to approximate or value (but not measure...) a particular player's (or team's) worth; possibly an overall worth, or possibly just an element of his contribution.

Many of these composite stats are useful (e.g. xFIP) in helping predict future levels of performance. On the other hand, if by "LIPS" we're talking about "Late Inning Pressure Something or another", then I think the usefulness of the analysis is to show that clutch hitting is largely an illusion, and not the creation of a stat which seems to offer insight but just delivers opacity.

Oh, and the bozos at ESPN will offer up any old stat which gets flagged to them if it can fill up some air-time. Doesn't mean it's a bad stat, nor a good stat, but I guess it does support the suggestion that they are pretty mainstream.

 

[El Justo]

it will be mainstream once everyone A. understands it all and B. standardizes it. say what you will thiege but it is not mainstream. maybe in your little world but certainly not the baseball world at large (some prominent baseball scribes put no stock in it at all, HOF writers mind you). it is a separate and distinct set of stats that have some value but are certainly not mainstream.

 

[El Justo]

cards lose to the lowly 'stros last night. cards fans, in an ironic twist, are rooting for the phils and what in the world of bucky dent is going on with the red sox? i never would have predicted such desperation.

 

[GamezRule]

And the Tigers beat the Indians! 14-0!!!

 

[Lambert Simnel]

cards fans, in an ironic twist, are rooting for the phils

Trust me, it's only temporary

 

[KMRblue1027]

Trust me, it's only temporary

You better be rooting for your team to take 2 of 3 or you and the Braves will be playing a 9 inning playoff.

 

[Theige]

it will be mainstream once everyone A. understands it all and B. standardizes it. say what you will thiege but it is not mainstream. maybe in your little world but certainly not the baseball world at large (some prominent baseball scribes put no stock in it at all, HOF writers mind you). it is a separate and distinct set of stats that have some value but are certainly not mainstream.

My little world?

ESPN is as mainstream as sports gets, and WAR is regularly cited in ESPN articles.

 

[Darkness]

So, both wildcard races coming down to the last game... I honestly did not see this coming at the beginning of september, with the Red Sox and the Braves both have huge leads over the Rays and the Cards....

@El J: I'll be rooting for the Phillies again tonight. But that's it really, after that I'm leaving the bandwagon again, OK...?

 

[El Justo]

good for you, cards fans. it's exciting. believe it or not, i'm happy that you guys are in the thick. atlanta looks gassed. maybe we will see each other again this weekend?

@thiege
perhaps Ibanez's WAR and VORP went up over the last few days? save the espn references. it is not mainstream. i will keep posting this until you stop. i am more annoying than you write it down.

 

[sophie]

@thiege
perhaps Ibanez's WAR and VORP went up over the last few days? save the espn references. it is not mainstream. i will keep posting this until you stop. i am more annoying than you write it down.

Jesus christ. Stop being such a baby.