2024 Primary Prognostication (P.S. Politics Prohibited)

[amadeus]

Primary season is kicking off soon and I thought it would be “fun” to have a thread where we go state by state and make our predictions for winners and percentages of votes.

As stated in the title, this is not the place to discuss candidates or policies you like—we have a panoply of people perpetually posting political posturing!

Alliterations are also appreciated.

Gotta do my research before Iowa, but I will make my predictions!

 

[Broken_Erika]

Jeb Bush wins the worldwide vote becoming God-Emperor of mankind.

 

[Gori the Grey]

!

 

[Birdjaguar]

Trump does not win in November.

 

[amadeus]

Not all of the percentages are going to add to 100%

IOWA

GOP:
Trump — 65%
Haley — 18%
DeSantis — 14%

DEM:
Biden — 82%
Williamson — 3%
Uncommitted — 12%

Iowa apparently has an option for voters to claim they are uncommitted. Right now polling indicates around 20%, but gut says in both cases voters will come out for Trump/Biden in bigger numbers as people recognize that DeSantis isn’t going anywhere now and that remaining uncommitted at this point still probably isn’t going to get them the Bill Clinton they want to swoop in and steal the thunder, respectively—one note though is that I mean someone like Clinton in the sense that he came in later in the race before crushing Cuomo and moonbeam and everyone else.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

There should always be an option for "undecided". Some people will use that because they really haven't decided, and others may say that because they don't want to say who they'd vote for.

What annoys me about polls is when someone phones after I've voted (in the advance polls). I tell them it's pointless to ask me who I'm voting for because I already voted - and my vote is between me, my conscience, and the ballot box.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Fanta Fuhrer's fanatics face ferocious frost to fuel favorite.

(Trump "covers the spread," i.e. does at least as well as his polling; his supporters actually like that the difficult weather gives them a way of demonstrating their devotion to him.)