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A study of espionage mission

Discussion in 'Civ3 Strategy Articles' started by Oystein, Aug 15, 2004.

  1. wtiberon

    wtiberon One man who stands alone

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    question: For stealing plans it says units, is that your units or his units?
     
  2. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    Its his units.
     
  3. jkp1187

    jkp1187 Unindicted Co-Conspirator

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    Excellent post. But I have a question of my own:

    Can a spy be promoted to veteran status if he starts out "regular"? And are these the same chances as a unit being promoted to veteran (i.e., he has a % chance of getting the promotion after a successful mission?)
     
  4. eldar

    eldar ChiefTank

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    Spy experience levels are based on you Government - they are Vets under Communism and Fascism, and Regular under all other govts. There's no way for them to be 'promoted'.

    Neil. :cool:
     
  5. wtiberon

    wtiberon One man who stands alone

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    you mention "flags" where do they appear and how do you know if it has been lowered?
     
  6. Pfeffersack

    Pfeffersack Chieftain

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    The flags are invisible, they are just markers in the save file.They disappear with a probability of 1/3 every turn, but you don't know when a flag has vanished, because you get no message or so.
     
  7. microbe

    microbe Cascaded Mansion

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    Terrific studies! Finally we have one of the most important pieces of information. Thanks a lot!
     
  8. Offa

    Offa Bretwalda

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    Fascinating; stealing techs has seemed a very dark art until now. How did you work this out?

    I guess therefore that planting spies is crucial to increase steal success rates. The vet spy advantage is another factor favouring communism in Conquests.
     
  9. SesnOfWthr

    SesnOfWthr True Believer

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    Nice article Oystein! :)

    A question: You say the flag has a 1/3 chance of disappearing after each turn. Does that mean that three turns later the probability of the flag going away is 3/3 or still 1/3, assuming it is still there at all?

    I just wonder if it's like getting a leader, where you can go 50+ battles without getting one, then get two in a row. Could the flag (conceivably) remain on my file for 10 or more turns?
     
  10. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    The probability that the flag will disappear is 1/3, no matter how many turns has past. So the flag has a chance of about 1.7% of remaining after 10 turns.
     
  11. SesnOfWthr

    SesnOfWthr True Believer

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    I think I saw you post earlier that there is no way for the player to discern if the flag is gone or not.

    However, if a utility (like CivAssist) reads the save file, it should be able to see it, correct?

    Is this flag something you could point out to a save game afficionado (like Ainwood) for possible implementation?
     
  12. magritte

    magritte Chieftain

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    Thanks for this article. I had given up on spying (unless I was already at war with the civ) because it seemed like the chance of getting caught was so high. Now I realize it was because of that flag effect that I sometimes would get caught six or seven times in a row.
     
  13. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    Now I think I have worked out the whole propaganda part also. Original post updated.

    And SesnOfWthr, I will happily point out to a utility maker where the flag are stored in the savefile.
     
  14. Pfeffersack

    Pfeffersack Chieftain

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    Nice update on the propaganda part; haven't expected that number of improvments may have an influence on propaganda sucess...thanks for working those details out!

    Two questions:
    1) For modding purposes...I wonder what effect "conscript" or "elite" diplomats/spies is...just another -10/+10 difference?

    2) about the factor "development" for propaganda against cities...do improvements count for the 6-improvment-value which are given through a wonder?
     
  15. Roland Johansen

    Roland Johansen Chieftain

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    Great article! :goodjob:

    I still have a question about propaganda. If I understand your calculations correctly, it will be very difficult to succesfully use propaganda on large cities.

    If you have a 30% chance of persuading a citizen in a size 1 enemy city, the probability to succesfully use propaganda on this city will be 30%.

    If you have a 30% chance of persuading a citizen in a size 20 enemy city, then you will on average persuade 6 citizens while you need to persuade at least 15. The probability to get a result of 15 or more persuaded citizens is very far from the average result and thus very small.

    Of course, there is the additional effect that size 20 cities tend to be developed and size 1 cities not, but this is just about the effect of city size on the probabilities.

    Am I understanding your formulas correctly?

    Another question about the propaganda mission popped up in my head.
    In the editor, the courthouse has a flag added: resistant to propaganda, but according to your formula the courthouse has no effect. Are you sure?

    Thanks for the great article. :worship:
     
  16. Pfeffersack

    Pfeffersack Chieftain

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    You mean the "resistant to propaganda"-flag? Good question...

    Sucessful propaganda in large cities is only likely, if you have a far better culture...which I think is quiete realistic.Another question: I thought a capital cannot flip, but its factor in the formula is only 40 - does this mean it is possible to flip a capital via propaganda, even it is unlikely?
     
  17. Roland Johansen

    Roland Johansen Chieftain

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    Uh, you're right. I'll edit the original post...
     
  18. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    You have a good point Roland. Good to have some critical readers. It is the courthouse that reduce the flip chance by 20. Stuped me, I was always adding the courthouse as the 6th improvment. I should have tested better, but I guess I was to happy of finally getting it all. At least I have corrected it now.

    It look like you understand me correctly. If the flip chance of a size 1 city if 30%, then the flip chance of a size 20 city is about 0.004%
     
  19. Roland Johansen

    Roland Johansen Chieftain

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    Ok, then it makes all sense. Thank you for the additional research and the great article.
     
  20. anarres

    anarres anarchist revolutionary

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    Wow, how could I have not looked in this forum for so long? :o
     

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