Anyone know the formula for BATTLE?


Great Scientist
Mar 14, 2002
Highlands, Scotland Uni: St Andrews
More formula questions, does anyone know the formula for battle? I like to know the chances of winning, or losing against another unit. Sodak did a great one, (Good Job!:goodjob: ) But the problem was, I didn't know how to calculate 'n'. It said n=dmh to dmh+amh-1. (The dmh might have been dfh, but it doesn't matter).

Anyone know anything about a battle formula? :confused:

I'm afraid I don't visit this forum often, so I'm not aware of past combat discussions. There have been a few threads on Apolyton about the formula. Here's a pretty thorough one:Great Library: CivII combat (Marquis de Sodaq) -- same as Sodak?. Combat can be predicted well using a binomial distribution equation. Unfortunately, the original thread in which the equation was first discussed by Eggman, Euclid, and Buenos, is no longer available.

Based on the discussion there, I wrote the attached Excel program, which does the following:
1) predict the probability of success for a single attacking unit;
2) predict the average attacker's loss required to kill one defending unit;
3) allows modification of combat factors caused by terrain, special combat cases, vet status, fortified status, remaining movement, etc (this required most of the programming work);
4) briefly explains most of the modifiers.

One advantage of using Excel is that you can use the BINOMDIST function and solve the equation in a single cell, rather than make rows of results to sum. If you have Excel, please give this program a try. You can dissect it to get some detailed answers to your question. I wrote it to help scenario development, but it certainly can help you with your request. It's gone through a few rounds of beta testing (thanks, Slowthinker and Henrik), but I could use some more feedback.

I think Kobayashi also wrote a calculator in Excel that uses a more empirical approach.
Thanks for a great site Boco, I have yet to try your spreadsheet. The only problem is that I don't know how to calculate n.

It said precisely n is summed from: dh to dh+ah-1

Now what does to mean? It can't mean addition or why didn't it say: dh^2+ah-1?

Maybe it means ratios, but I still am puzzled.

Oh Well, thanks for the site anyway!:goodjob:

(And the spreadsheet!)

I'll try that BINOMDIST too!
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