This is an interesting idea. 5K out on Moonsinger's game is quite a significant error but with further refinement you could be onto something here. It surely won't replace SirPleb's tool but it could provide a useful way of estimating final scores from a much earlier stage for idiots like me that know very little about milking. I'll be watching!
Aspiring Quartermaster
- Thread starter SpiffyKeen7744
- Start date
RFHolloway
Analyst in the UK
I would approach the estimation as requiring a guess from the player as to how long it will take to get to the final set up. Then if the internal score increases linearly from now to the maximum, and then stays at the maximum you should get a reasonable estimate.
SpiffyKeen7744
Prince
OK, so I looked at my old 39k game, and it turns out that I did not get to max population until after 1900AD, which is about turn 420, not 320. Also, I had a domination limit of 4430. So, I fiddled around with the calculations a little bit, and I got it to work close for my game and Moonsinger's 88k game.
88k (4562 domination limit, max population after 270 turns, x8 multiplier) = 86,035
39k (4430 domination limit, max population after 420 turns, x5 multiplier) = 40,526
Now, what I really need to do is check it against as many other huge games as were documented.
SirPleb never really said exactly what domination limit he ended up with, but he did say it would be between 4300 and 4400, so I'll say 4350. He was still adjusting his territory in 1842AD, and he finished his last population-related builds in 1874AD. So, I'll just say turn 420 for his Sid game.
64k (4350 domination limit, max population after 420 turns, x8 multiplier) = 63,671
killercane's Deity game had a domination limit of 4512, but he gave no definite date for a final population situation. The Persians were still around in 1710AD, and his other report was in 1973AD after the Persians were gone. killercane does mention that he got nuked and had a lot of war unhappiness during the 20 year war with Persia. This is quite different from other milking attemps, but I would guess that he reached close to max when the Persians were gone, which was 20 turns after 1710AD??? I will use turn 350.
61k (4512 domination limit, max population after 350 turns, x7 multiplier) = 65,566
So my tool was off on killercane's game, but he did not have an uneventful milking phase like the others. The plot of his internal score would be more wild than the one Moonsinger gave.
Chamnix had a more regular miking phase, and he said that he reached the domination limit around 1200AD and then switched to Republic. It is likely that he had some time until max population was reached with all those hospitals to rush, etc. Let's say it took until 1700AD. That would give turn 330. As for domination limit, I downloaded his game, and MapStat gave 4306.
63k (4306 domination limit, max population after 330 turns, x7 multiplier) = 64,693
If max population had been reached at 1300AD, his score would have been closer to 73k.
Well, the predictor is not perfect, but gives decent estimates. I'd have to consult with the players to get a better evaluation, since I am guessing about dates for max population. More important for prediction purposes is the ability to guess a date. Moonsinger is very fast (very soon after domination), while my games was very slow (max population much later than domination limit date).
88k (4562 domination limit, max population after 270 turns, x8 multiplier) = 86,035
39k (4430 domination limit, max population after 420 turns, x5 multiplier) = 40,526
Now, what I really need to do is check it against as many other huge games as were documented.
SirPleb never really said exactly what domination limit he ended up with, but he did say it would be between 4300 and 4400, so I'll say 4350. He was still adjusting his territory in 1842AD, and he finished his last population-related builds in 1874AD. So, I'll just say turn 420 for his Sid game.
64k (4350 domination limit, max population after 420 turns, x8 multiplier) = 63,671
killercane's Deity game had a domination limit of 4512, but he gave no definite date for a final population situation. The Persians were still around in 1710AD, and his other report was in 1973AD after the Persians were gone. killercane does mention that he got nuked and had a lot of war unhappiness during the 20 year war with Persia. This is quite different from other milking attemps, but I would guess that he reached close to max when the Persians were gone, which was 20 turns after 1710AD??? I will use turn 350.
61k (4512 domination limit, max population after 350 turns, x7 multiplier) = 65,566
So my tool was off on killercane's game, but he did not have an uneventful milking phase like the others. The plot of his internal score would be more wild than the one Moonsinger gave.
Chamnix had a more regular miking phase, and he said that he reached the domination limit around 1200AD and then switched to Republic. It is likely that he had some time until max population was reached with all those hospitals to rush, etc. Let's say it took until 1700AD. That would give turn 330. As for domination limit, I downloaded his game, and MapStat gave 4306.
63k (4306 domination limit, max population after 330 turns, x7 multiplier) = 64,693
If max population had been reached at 1300AD, his score would have been closer to 73k.
Well, the predictor is not perfect, but gives decent estimates. I'd have to consult with the players to get a better evaluation, since I am guessing about dates for max population. More important for prediction purposes is the ability to guess a date. Moonsinger is very fast (very soon after domination), while my games was very slow (max population much later than domination limit date).
SpiffyKeen7744
Prince
RFHolloway said:
I agree. An estimation that is to be worth anything assumes a final setup of cities that does not change, and all those cities with maximum population. This is very common for Histographic games that leave a few civs in tundra prisons.
SpiffyKeen7744
Prince
OK, now that I am more confident in my calculations, I will explain the equations.
First, the final internal score is estimated by finding the product of the domination limit, the difficulty multiplier (M), and a constant (K). The constatnt K is defined as 3.8, and I got that value by looking at how many points are usually possible per territory tile. All tiles provide 1.0 points per tile for territory, and about 90% provide a happy citizen (0.9*2.0=1.8). Finally, I assumed 1.0 specialist citizens per tile from extra food (about 2 extra food per tile).
Finding the Histographic score involves calculating the area of the rectangle [I*(540-T), where T is the turn when maximum population is achieved] and the area of the triangle [0.5*I*(T-140), where I used 140 as the turn when scores commonly begin to rise quickly], then dividing by the number of turns.
First, the final internal score is estimated by finding the product of the domination limit, the difficulty multiplier (M), and a constant (K). The constatnt K is defined as 3.8, and I got that value by looking at how many points are usually possible per territory tile. All tiles provide 1.0 points per tile for territory, and about 90% provide a happy citizen (0.9*2.0=1.8). Finally, I assumed 1.0 specialist citizens per tile from extra food (about 2 extra food per tile).
Finding the Histographic score involves calculating the area of the rectangle [I*(540-T), where T is the turn when maximum population is achieved] and the area of the triangle [0.5*I*(T-140), where I used 140 as the turn when scores commonly begin to rise quickly], then dividing by the number of turns.
SpiffyKeen7744
Prince
Update on the Small(60% Pangaea)/Demigod/Spaceship with the Sumerians (Korea, Greece, Germany):
I am at 600AD, in the IA. I have Steam, Industrialization, Medicine, and Sanitation. I am currently researching Electricity, and I currently doing research in about 4-5 turns a tech in the IA. However, this is quite dependent on GPT trades with the AI civs. I was at war with the Germans for a long time, and I was only getting 6-7 turn research while running 30-40% lux tax. At peace, I can get by with only 10% lux, and my tech lead can be traded to the other 3 civs for around 100 GPT. However, the $$$ keeps getting smaller. I might have to go to war with Greece to reduce their unit support.
In any case, I managed to expand well at the start with a few worker/settler factories (Ur, Sumer, Lagash), and I survived Greece in their GA since they attacked and crippled Korea instead of me. I got a SGL too late for any interesting wonders (missed Pyramids, Oracle, SoZ, etc.), so I used it on a quick FP in Erech. This lead to a good boost in research and $$$.
Germany, however, had tons of room to expand into, so they got too big for their britches. In their GA from wonder builds, I had an early war with them that they started. I lost 2 cities, but started my own GA. After the war, I hooked up iron, and was able to get Knights. Germany was without Iron or Horses at first. In fact, Germany did not even have contact with Greece. I did get Copernicus' Observatory in my capitol.
Later on, I started a war with Germany (after a BIG GPT deal for Education? Astronomy? was up). This got me the territory I lost from the first war, plus a few more cities and a MGL, which I used for a Knight Army. Salzburg was hard to hold, and I was still outnumbered by quite a bit even with superior troops, so I went for Peace. Using prebuilds, I also got Newton's University in my capital the turn I researched ToG. This will be very nice for research with a size 20 capitol.
Later on, they had Iron, Horses, and Saltpeter. I found their horses and saltpeter and pillaged them with my Knight Army.
However, they were trading with Greece for Iron (after contacts from Printing Press). So, when I started a third war with them, and brought Greece into it this time. Germany lost all three strategic resources in just a few turns. During the 3rd war, I must have defeated 100 longbowmen, only netting 2 MGLs. I used one for the Military Academy, and the other for another Army, this time with Cavs. The war lasted a long time, because I did not want to have to go to war again later, due to WW. I only kept a few cities, especially Konigsberg with Sun Tzu's. Most of the rest I razed and resettled. I went in order of arrows: red, orange, yellow, green, and blue.
Here is Ur at 600AD. It should be really nice in a few turns once the Hospital is done.
I am at 600AD, in the IA. I have Steam, Industrialization, Medicine, and Sanitation. I am currently researching Electricity, and I currently doing research in about 4-5 turns a tech in the IA. However, this is quite dependent on GPT trades with the AI civs. I was at war with the Germans for a long time, and I was only getting 6-7 turn research while running 30-40% lux tax. At peace, I can get by with only 10% lux, and my tech lead can be traded to the other 3 civs for around 100 GPT. However, the $$$ keeps getting smaller. I might have to go to war with Greece to reduce their unit support.
In any case, I managed to expand well at the start with a few worker/settler factories (Ur, Sumer, Lagash), and I survived Greece in their GA since they attacked and crippled Korea instead of me. I got a SGL too late for any interesting wonders (missed Pyramids, Oracle, SoZ, etc.), so I used it on a quick FP in Erech. This lead to a good boost in research and $$$.
Germany, however, had tons of room to expand into, so they got too big for their britches. In their GA from wonder builds, I had an early war with them that they started. I lost 2 cities, but started my own GA. After the war, I hooked up iron, and was able to get Knights. Germany was without Iron or Horses at first. In fact, Germany did not even have contact with Greece. I did get Copernicus' Observatory in my capitol.
Later on, I started a war with Germany (after a BIG GPT deal for Education? Astronomy? was up). This got me the territory I lost from the first war, plus a few more cities and a MGL, which I used for a Knight Army. Salzburg was hard to hold, and I was still outnumbered by quite a bit even with superior troops, so I went for Peace. Using prebuilds, I also got Newton's University in my capital the turn I researched ToG. This will be very nice for research with a size 20 capitol.
Later on, they had Iron, Horses, and Saltpeter. I found their horses and saltpeter and pillaged them with my Knight Army.
However, they were trading with Greece for Iron (after contacts from Printing Press). So, when I started a third war with them, and brought Greece into it this time. Germany lost all three strategic resources in just a few turns. During the 3rd war, I must have defeated 100 longbowmen, only netting 2 MGLs. I used one for the Military Academy, and the other for another Army, this time with Cavs. The war lasted a long time, because I did not want to have to go to war again later, due to WW. I only kept a few cities, especially Konigsberg with Sun Tzu's. Most of the rest I razed and resettled. I went in order of arrows: red, orange, yellow, green, and blue.
Here is Ur at 600AD. It should be really nice in a few turns once the Hospital is done.
SpiffyKeen7744
Prince
Update: I am just past 700AD. With Ur at size 20 I am doing 4 turn research with a little bit of room. Hopefully that means I can keep it up through the IA. Korea decided to declare war on me because they had a wandering settler guarded by a longbowman, and a size 2 town of mine near the Germans was empty. I took it back the next turn, and one other Korean city (red circle). I also made rails to Korea a priority, and in turn #2 of the war, I had conquered their other 4 cities on the main continent (yellow circle).
That was probably the best thing that could have happened. It netted me two luxury resources that I could not get my hands on, because Korea was trading with Greece, I assume. Now I am up to 7 lux, which is nice. Add onto that war happiness, and things are looking good.
The only remaining question pertains to the AI civs. I want Greece to stay strong, since I trade them techs for GPT, which I need to keep up my 80-100% research. However, Korea has been worthless since the Greeks had at them around the turn of the Middle Ages. I have no problem with Korea on islands. I can gift them up to the Modern Age if I want. However, Greece and Germany will probably not help with research. Their only use, besides GPT trades, would be gifting up to the Modern Age. However, I lost my reputation, so I cannot use GPT to get techs. Is my best bet to gift the other civs to the Modern Age AFTER I get there, and see if I can get a few more 1st-level techs? Or do I still have a chance to get some 2nd-level Modern Age techs? (Slim chance anyway, with only 3 other civs?)
That was probably the best thing that could have happened. It netted me two luxury resources that I could not get my hands on, because Korea was trading with Greece, I assume. Now I am up to 7 lux, which is nice. Add onto that war happiness, and things are looking good.
The only remaining question pertains to the AI civs. I want Greece to stay strong, since I trade them techs for GPT, which I need to keep up my 80-100% research. However, Korea has been worthless since the Greeks had at them around the turn of the Middle Ages. I have no problem with Korea on islands. I can gift them up to the Modern Age if I want. However, Greece and Germany will probably not help with research. Their only use, besides GPT trades, would be gifting up to the Modern Age. However, I lost my reputation, so I cannot use GPT to get techs. Is my best bet to gift the other civs to the Modern Age AFTER I get there, and see if I can get a few more 1st-level techs? Or do I still have a chance to get some 2nd-level Modern Age techs? (Slim chance anyway, with only 3 other civs?)
brennan
Argumentative Brit
I like your new avatar spiffykeen.
SpiffyKeen7744
Prince
Thanks brennan! I am glad you like it. I tried a few other designs, but they were far too busy, while this one is simple and fun.
As for my spaceship game, I ended up with a victory at 1350AD. After the 3rd German war was done, nothing happened except research. I managed 3 out of 4 first level techs from free techs. I managed a lot of SGLs after they were not much help for anything, as I already had prebuilds for SETI and the Internet, or the SGL came even later, for example, I got one for Robotics.
For my next games, I am looking at the following:
Large Emperor Conquest
Tiny Regent Domination
Tiny Sid 20k
Tiny Sid Diplomatic
I say Sid for the 20k and Diplo games, since the dates are later than the other categories. I get the feeling that I will not be able to beat any of the good dates in the other categories (non-Sid, any size). However, I might wait on the 20k and Diplo games until later, since I am also looking to try a C3C Deity Huge Histographic.
As for my spaceship game, I ended up with a victory at 1350AD. After the 3rd German war was done, nothing happened except research. I managed 3 out of 4 first level techs from free techs. I managed a lot of SGLs after they were not much help for anything, as I already had prebuilds for SETI and the Internet, or the SGL came even later, for example, I got one for Robotics.
For my next games, I am looking at the following:
Large Emperor Conquest
Tiny Regent Domination
Tiny Sid 20k
Tiny Sid Diplomatic
I say Sid for the 20k and Diplo games, since the dates are later than the other categories. I get the feeling that I will not be able to beat any of the good dates in the other categories (non-Sid, any size). However, I might wait on the 20k and Diplo games until later, since I am also looking to try a C3C Deity Huge Histographic.
SpiffyKeen7744
Prince
Tone, you are correct. If no one else beats my time this month, I will replace a 5 and two 3s with three 1s because of this game. That will put me below 2.00 in Machiavelli and Octathlon. And my next target, Large Emperor Conquest, should put my Pentathlon score below 2.00 as well. A few more submissions, and you might even have to worry... wait... not really, since you had that 56k game. 
Well maybe that game has bought me some breathing space but I get the feeling that I'll need to come up with something better in the long run.A few more submissions, and you might even have to worry... wait... not really, since you had that 56k game.
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