Brief Analysis of Sales Data between Civ Rev and it possible impact on Civ V

kiwitt

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Today, as a matter of interest, I logged onto www.vgchartz.com and spotted some data.

When I read about Civilization being released for the console (now also the iphone/ipod), I initially cringed, how could a game as complex be played on it. However, it is a company out to make as much money as possible any way it can. As confirmed by the data I found, it looks as if it was quite a lucrative. This additional money, could have been used to fund the continued development of the Civ franchise for the PC.

How wrong was I ? Instead, the producers appear to have looked at the sales data and said why not replicate the success of Civ Rev for the PC, by incorporating features of that version that made it successful into the next PC version (as the numerous posters on here have already said).

I have played most strategy games all my PC life (nearly 20 years) and have noticed that many in the series reach their peak at different times. I have bolded the Versions I have played the longest and consider that to be their peak.

Caesar -> Caesar II -> Caesar III -> Pharaoh -> Zeus
Close Combat I -> Close Combat II -> Close Combat III -> Close Combat IV
Shogun:TW -> Medieval:TW -> Rome:TW -> Medieval 2:TW -> Empire:TW
Sim City -> Sim City 2000 -> Sim City 3000 -> Sim City 4 -> The Sims (spinoff)

I do now believe the Civilization Series has also passed it's peak and will continue on Consoles and Smartphones a mere shadow of it's past, but still be financially successful, but no longer the game that it once was. I had high hopes for the next version, and even bought "The Collectors Edition". And here is the progression of Civilization.

Civ I -> Civ II -> Civ III -> Civ IV -> Civ Rev -> Civ V
(I have included Civ Rev in the series as it obviously is related and it's influence in Civ V is notable)
 
Thanks, interesting find. But do you know whether the listed initial sales for Civ5 include Steam sales, or only retail? I remember someone saying here that Steam doesn't give sales values to third parties (though I can't tell whether it's true). Could you quote the actual values (the site you linked isn't working for me unfortunately, probably a browser problem)?

Also, finding initial sales values for Civ4 and Civ3 would be interesting. Does anybody know where to find them?
 
The Site did not work in Chrome, but did in IE.
 
Civ Rev (PC/Xbox/DS) far outsold Civ V in it's initial launch.
Define initial launch. By my math sales of Civ V (192,874) outsold combined totals for Civ Rev 360 (88,612) + PS3 (53,463) + DS (25,245) in the first week. (Numbers taken from linked website).

I'm also under the impression that Steam sales figure aren't readily available. In which case I think any analysis without them isn't telling the whole story.
 
Yea, that site does not back up your claims at all. Through the first 4 weeks it shows:
CiV -322k
CivRev (DS) - 48k
CivRev (PS3) - 34k
CivRev (360) - 46k

So through 4 weeks CiV outsold CivRev better than 2:1. And even if the numbers were anything resembling what you claim, I fail to understand how that proves that the series is past its prime.
 
Yea, that site does not back up your claims at all. Through the first 4 weeks it shows:
CiV -322k
CivRev (DS) - 48k
CivRev (PS3) - 34k
CivRev (360) - 46k

So through 4 weeks CiV outsold CivRev better than 2:1. And even if the numbers were anything resembling what you claim, I fail to understand how that proves that the series is past its prime.
This. Verra much.

It's also kind of amazing, considering it's very rare these days for PC games to outsell their console equivalents.
 
OK, I admit I read the charts wrong.
http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/23723/sid-meiers-civilization-revolution/
http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/23722/sid-meiers-civilization-revolution/
http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/21982/sid-meiers-civilization-revolution/
http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/43507/sid-meiers-civilization-v/

300,000 was reached by DS after 1 year, PS3 after 32 weeks and Xbox after only 16 weeks.

What I am trying to say is that Civ Rev's success is not something the producer is going ignore.
 
Yes. Firaxis decided that it was better to appeal to the 1 million people who bought Civ Rev and not the 3+ million people who bought Civ IV.

This is logical and not stupid and not another attempt to try to prove Civ V is Civ Rev 2 because this forum is suffering from SMT Syndrome and is trying to disown part of their franchise because they don't like it.
 
Yes. Firaxis decided that it was better to appeal to the 1 million people who bought Civ Rev and not the 3+ million people who bought Civ IV.

This is logical and not stupid and not another attempt to try to prove Civ V is Civ Rev 2 because this forum is suffering from SMT Syndrome and is trying to disown part of their franchise because they don't like it.

It's closer to 1.5 million for CivRev. But where are you getting the "3+ million for Civ4?" I can't seem to find a sales page on that site. It would be interesting to see what the initial Civ4 sales were for the first 2 years compared to CivRev.
 
I think the facts are, that the biggest target group for computer games are the "money strong" teenagers. Not old timers like me who been playing since civ 1. They made a huge succes with Civ 4 and knew they couldnt improve on it (without stealing from Civ Fanatics fantastic modders ;)), so they saw that a game that shouldnt fit into the console enviroment in the first place actually made quite a succes, and if they could take these peoples money (usually teens) AND combine it with the medium seasoned player (who joined civ at 4'ish) then they could earn quite a buck.
Simple as that. No more grassroots or personal engagements. It's money that talks. Especially after 2008 when the worlds economy went... down down down :

Last two and a half year for TakeTwo stock


Last two and a half year for TakeTwo stock

Last 3 months for TakeTwo stock

 
Uh, yea that Sept 07 crash was not really video game related, there were a few bigger things going on in the world at that point that were affecting the stock market. And the recent increase has nothing to do with CIV, ultimately it was due to Take Two's higher than expected Q4 forecast, driven primarily by the massive sales of Red Dead Redemption.

Edit: Yea, read the responses and just assumed it was Sept07. The massive drop is actually Sept 08, when EA let their offer to buy out Take Two expire. Their price had gotten massively inflated during the buyout talks, the drop was a readjustment combined with a poor quarterly forecast.
 
I think the facts are, that the biggest target group for computer games are the "money strong" teenagers. Not old timers like me who been playing since civ 1. They made a huge succes with Civ 4 and knew they couldnt improve on it (without stealing from Civ Fanatics fantastic modders ;)), so they saw that a game that shouldnt fit into the console enviroment in the first place actually made quite a succes, and if they could take these peoples money (usually teens) AND combine it with the medium seasoned player (who joined civ at 4'ish) then they could earn quite a buck.
Simple as that. No more grassroots or personal engagements. It's money that talks. Especially after 2008 when the worlds economy went... down down down :

Last two and a half year for TakeTwo stock


I was going to say something about how the drop came soon after the release of CivRev, but yeah, the general economic situation might've contributed a bit as well...
 
factorial: Do you have an explanation for the massive drop after 09-Aug-2010? Even the gains after the release of Civ5 are just about to recover the ground lost there.
 
factorial: Do you have an explanation for the massive drop after 09-Aug-2010? Even the gains after the release of Civ5 are just about to recover the ground lost there.

Yea: http://www.marketrap.com/article/vi...restimates-take-two-interactive-shares-tumble

Basically, analysts predicted ridiculous sales for RDR, it didn't meet them and the shares tanked. It kind of seems like the analyst was basing it on franchise sales, eg a GTA or CoD game will sell massively in its first couple weeks because fans of the franchise buy it immediately. A new franchise takes time as people wait for reviews, message boards and word of mouth. So RDR ended up selling really well, just slower than expected, so when the Q4 forecast came out the stock bounced back.

Edit: Also, anyone reading those charts, please note the scale, particularly on the 2nd chart. The scale is from $8-$11, so do bear in mind that it's not like TTWO dropped 90% of it's value during that Aug drop, although it did take a huge hit.
 
Thanks factorial, enlightening link - I can't tell you how much I appreciate well-researched information. :)

I also noticed that the bouncing-back took place around 5th September, and not (as I originally thought) October (as a reaction to the Civ5 release).

Given that, it seems that Civ5's release didn't have much impact on TTWO's stock value so far? That might be due to Civ5 performing commercially "as expected", i.e. Civ5's expected performance was already included in the stock's value prior to release. Or people might be waiting for more data - TTWO hasn't issued a statement on Civ5's sales yet, Steam numbers aren't easily available, and retail sales figures may be unreliable considering that it's hard to guess which portion of customers will buy directly at Steam.

I've actually been looking for Take2 press releases after the launch of Civ4. usually companies are quick in informing the market that their recent product sells quite well - Blizzard didn't take long to publish the info that Starcraft 2 sold 1.5 million units within 48 hours. So far I'ver heard nothing from Take2 about Civ5, but I'm not sure how to interpret this, it might be just normal. That's why I was looking for Civ4 figures, for comparison.
 
Thanks factorial, enlightening link - I can't tell you how much I appreciate well-researched information. :)

I also noticed that the bouncing-back took place around 5th September, and not (as I originally thought) October (as a reaction to the Civ5 release).

Given that, it seems that Civ5's release didn't have much impact on TTWO's stock value so far? That might be due to Civ5 performing commercially "as expected", i.e. Civ5's expected performance was already included in the stock's value prior to release. Or people might be waiting for more data - TTWO hasn't issued a statement on Civ5's sales yet, Steam numbers aren't easily available, and retail sales figures may be unreliable considering that it's hard to guess which portion of customers will buy directly at Steam.

Preorders could have contributed to that spike, that and the anticipation of Civ5. People bought stock low in hopes of it going high when Civ5 hit the shelves.

And yes, excellent information Factorial!
 
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