Buce 02 - The Son's Of Ghengis Khan

[Bucephalus]

lurker's comment: Have you considered a spear army?

Yep, I edited as you were posting - good thought, thanks.

 

[Othniel]

Do we have any option to sell the farm and get HBR?

A Horse army could be nice and might even be a better pillager than a Spear army because of speed. It would share an Archer army's weakness of 1 defense, but I'm not convinced that's too huge of a liability at this stage. Generally, if the army can pillage two tiles and then move, it'll probably stay our of harm's way most of the time.

Basically, if we played conventionally the thing to do is to hold the MGL for a Sword army. Here's why:

MGL statistics ramble...
Although we may get another MGL soon, just as possibly it could be ~94 more elite victories before we see another one. Yes, the per-elite victory odds are 1 in 16, but IIRC, the overall probability for MGL's is that we should get one every 47 elite victories. If that string of elite victories is put back-to-back -- such as MGL __ 94 more elite victories__MGL -- it could be a very long time before we see another MGL. Trust me, I've seen that long of a drought before, so it's very possible. At this stage, a Sword army can be game-breaking, and IMO is the wisest way to play.

All that said, I'm game for a pillaging army now just to shake up convention. So, if that's what you want to do Buce, you won't get any complaints from this quarter.

Just food for thought: a DG-level AI civ get's a huge production bonus, so pillaging tiles may not slow production that much unless we could sit units on all of the strong tiles (which we can't logistically). The quickest way to kill the unit flow is to capture cities...

 

[Phaedo]

I like the spear army idea. It'll protect anything we want to put under it for a while. That's the best thing about armies IMO anyway.

@Othniel: I think we would only really need to pillage his iron no? That and some key roads would slow him down enough for us to get some roads and the iron hooked up.

I don't know much about stats, but we did Rage without an army IIRC. I think the spears will do us fine. It would let us both pillage the iron and walk in a force to attack that land bridge city. Once that gets taken, it's just a matter of holding them off and clearing, then repopulating the land behind it (admittedly not cakewalk).

 

[Own]

Sorry about the threadjack here, but I love statistics so I couldn't resist !

MGL statistics ramble...
Although we may get another MGL soon, just as possibly it could be ~94 more elite victories before we see another one. Yes, the per-elite victory odds are 1 in 16, but IIRC, the overall probability for MGL's is that we should get one every 47 elite victories. If that string of elite victories is put back-to-back -- such as MGL __ 94 more elite victories__MGL -- it could be a very long time before we see another MGL. Trust me, I've seen that long of a drought before, so it's very possible. At this stage, a Sword army can be game-breaking, and IMO is the wisest way to play.

Hmm... 47 elite victories grants a 95% chance of getting at least one leader. But to get to almost certainty (99.9%) takes 107 elite victories [.999=1-(15/16)/\47]. And the prob of getting a leader in any given elite battle is the same as not getting a leader in ~43 elite wins [1/16=(15/16)/\42.96]. But you also have a 15% chance of getting exactly 3 MGL's in 20 elite wins (with HE). So when and if leaders appear is very unpredictable, and basing a non - AW game plan around them isn't a great idea.

Btw, a spear army is about the biggest waste in civ second to cathedrals and third to the colossus. But maybe it's a good idea if you have no iron or horses.

/threadjack

 

[TheOverseer714]

I will often make an army but leave it empty for better units in the future, that way you can get more MGL's while you wait, I.E. get one from an MDI 4 turns before getting cavalry. A cavalry army is so much better, but you might get some other MGL's while you wait.

 

[Elephantium]

We had an Archer army in CBob03. It was okay, but it was obsolete very very quickly.

Can we afford to buy HBR and make a Horse army?

And Own, why do you count the Colossus as a waste?

 

[Own]

lurker's comment: Colossus is good in OCC and 20k, but that's about it. The benefits are actually pretty good for a wonder, and it's pretty cheap too. But the problem is that it comes so early, when 200 shields could be MUCH better spent. A granary and lots of settlers, or a rax and lots of archers are two examples of shields better spent, does not matter the difficulty. On monarch, a rax and 8 archers is enough to take out a civ, and on deity, if you commit a settler producing city to a wonder that you'll probably get beat to, you'll be stuck with a tiny little empire.

 

[Bucephalus]

Do we have any option to sell the farm and get HBR?

No. I've just sold the farm to Cathy for the Wheel; with only two civs met, techs are still highly priced. Interestingly, Mao would give us HBR for peace, but I don't think that's a good idea, something I shall explain further on.

Basically, if we played conventionally the thing to do is to hold the MGL for a Sword army. Here's why:

To be honest, Othniel, I'm not a great fan of absolutes; conventional wisdom has it's place, and is the obvious strategy more often than not, but to follow it slavishly is to close your eyes to other possibilities, and IMO this is one such case.

Simply put, I believe a pillaging Spear Army now is worth more than a Sword Army in maybe 30 turns. I can't see us being in such a position where a Sword Army would make or break the game; we have a very solid, productive core, surrounded by good land, with Iron and Horses nearby. The nature of the game means that we are going to come from behind, both in techs and territory, but I have no doubts that we shall do it with - or without - a Sword army.

Mao, although he has three times as many cities as us, is vulnerable; he has no Horses, (and will not get them without our co-operation), and has just the one source of Iron - easily reached. If we disconnect that Iron we will face nothing worse than bows and spears for a long time. His empire is widely spread and poorly connected; once we have Swords and Horses we will be able to dismember it easily.

Just food for thought: a DG-level AI civ get's a huge production bonus, so pillaging tiles may not slow production that much unless we could sit units on all of the strong tiles (which we can't logistically). The quickest way to kill the unit flow is to capture cities...

I think that you're missing the point on pillaging - it's about so much more than slowing production, or resource disconnection.

It's true that every mine pillaged, slows production; but it's also true that every road pillaged hits the economy, slowing research and reducing the ability to pay unit support. And key roads pillaged increase the time that it takes the AI to move troops to the front, meaning that they come in an even more discoordinated fashion than usual. Pillage enough roads to cut off the capital, and any deals they have going are ended, along with their former trading partner's good-will. Pillage irrigation and you slow growth (or even cause starvation - you know how the AI loves to feed jokers to keep everybody happy).

So, that's what I'm proposing that we do to Mao for the next x number of turns, as a pre-curser to a cohesive invasion; forgive the pun, but take away their Iron, and we'll have China on a plate.

 

[Elephantium]

Buce, I'm convinced. The spear army sounds like a good idea.

 

[Othniel]

While a Sword army can be game-breaking, I have no doubt we can win without one. Moreover, I'm certainly open to the idea of a dedicated pillaging army. I'm quite curious to see how it'll work out and what our thoughts will be in hindsight. Plus, it could be really fun.

Perhaps I badly worded it above, but I simply meant that a sword army is the conventional path. I wasn't saying it was the only path.

So, let's give this Spear army a go.

 

[Bucephalus]

OK, looks like we have a concensus.

I'll just add that this variant may pose some unusual problems, which may require unusual solutions, so let's keep our eyes open for opportunities.

 

[Bucephalus]

All done, post in a while.

 

[Bucephalus]

Pre-turn:

Switch Almarikh from Warrior to Curragh; switch Ta-Tu from Archer to Granary; wake Settler, send N to shield rich spot (it's not where we originally planned for our fifth city, but circumstances have caused us to change; it will have immediate access to six BG's, and has the potential for a powerful military pump.)

Trade Cathy 100g + 5gpt. I made as much of the deal in gpt as possible because once the fifth city is founded we cannot give tribute, and we are 'weak'.

We have Horses at Ta-Tu; there is also a source due East near the Chinese Iron at Tatung, something I shall attend to shortly.

1) Move stack of 6 Archers to forest at Tatung.

IBT: Lose Archer to Chinese Archer at Tatung; 2 more Chinese Swords approach from the West - they must be roaded right through the 'choke' because they are coming in mini-stacks.

2) Tatung is surprisingly well defended with 2 Spears and 2 Archers, but good RNG saves the day and the city is destroyed for the loss of just the one Archer.
Engage 4 Chinese Swords, losing 2 Archers. (8-3)

IBT: Red lined Chinese Sword is killed by the defensive bombard of a red-lined Elite Archer - and gives a MGL! I've never seen that before.

3) After pausing for discussion, the MGL is made in to an Army, and production in KK and Kazan switched to Spears.

Tabriz is founded, and begins on a Worker; this is our fifth city, and from now on all variant restrictions apply.

IBT: Chinese Settler/Sword/Spear combo appear from the East, 2 Swords adjacent.

4) Move Archer stack to intercept.

IBT: I suspect Sun Tzu is on holiday because the Chinese General decides that splitting up his Swords from his Settler/Spear is good strategy.

5) First Spear out of KK, also Kazan; kill Spear, and capture our first 2 slaves; skirmish with Swords. (12-5)

IBT: more Chinese Swords appear - that's quite a production line that they have there.

6) Nada.

IBT: Swords move in to range - more behind.
Russia completes SoZ

7) Almarikh finishes it's second Curragh; Ta-Tu completes Granary and begins a Settler.
3 Swords die with no losses. (15-5)

IBT: More Swords from the East. Lose Archer. (15-6)

8) Last Spear is loaded in to our Army, sets off to the 'choke'.
Skirmishing loses 3 Archers killing 2 Swords. (17-9)

9) Nada.

10) Our Army now has control of the 'choke', which is completely roaded, as expected.

I think that puts us in pretty good shape. Our Army can disconnect the Iron in 3 turns, and having already disconnected the roads around the 'choke' it should ensure that we just see a steady trickle of Archers from then on - leader fodder. The Chinese cities on our side of the choke should fall easily enough, giving us greater leverage when the time comes for tech-for-peace. In fact, I'm thinking that we could hold that choke permanently with a few Spears and Bows, giving us greater flexibility about when we turn our attention to Cathy.

We also have a Settler due next turn; we should discuss where it goes, but I'm thinking towards the Iron and Horses, due NEast.

I've been producing Curraghs in Almarikh. We currently have 2 there; I purposely haven't sailed with them yet, as I agree with Phaedo that Scoutsout's article on suicide runs bears further investigation. Not sure how many is enough, though.

Spoiler :

The Save

 

[CivActuary]

I guess I am up next?

I'll check out the save tonight. Off the top of my head, for the settler, I like NE too - what about 3 N of Kazan?

After reading Scoutsout's article, I would say at least 3, preferably 4. Do we have a likely spot to jump off into the fog with them?

 

[Bucephalus]

I think that our immediate concern in this set, is the danger of an alliance between Mao and Cathy; I put as much gpt in to the deal for 'Wheel' as I could to try to lessen that possibility but our forces are weak in the West, and Cathy now has SoZ.

The flow of units coming from Mao will not be so intense, so I suggest most military builds this set should garrison Ta-Tu. I also suggest that you play it defensively against Mao until his units dry up - I was lucky with RNG but luck averages out and Archers fare badly against Swords.

3N of Kazan looks about right, leaving one more step to take the Iron.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

 

[Phaedo]

I agree that 3N looks like the place for the next city. Horses are cheaper than swords and the immediate military boost with the retreat factor is more important than the swords at the moment I think. If Mao sends settlers to grab th iron, it just means more slaves. SoZ is a bit scary but hopefully she'll stay out of it until we have swords up.

If I recall, Scoutsout's post argued for 3 curraghs for the ocean crossing.

 

[Bucephalus]

Horses are cheaper than swords

Actually, they are both 30 shields but Horses are more versatile and will make short work of Mao's Archers.

 

[CivActuary]

After looking I don't think I have anything more to add other than what's been said
- Disconnent Mao's iron
- Settle 3N of Kazan
- stack of suicide curraghs
- Build up defenses in the west

 

[Elephantium]

For the suicide runs, I'd embark from either the easternmost point of China's territory or the westernmost point of Russian territory.

Getting a curragh down to the south end of the continent might reveal a safe-ish crossing, too.

 

[Bucephalus]

For the suicide runs, I'd embark from either the easternmost point of China's territory or the westernmost point of Russian territory.

Getting a curragh down to the south end of the continent might reveal a safe-ish crossing, too.

Mao will have galley's, probably best to look for a Western crossing.