Buce03 - Throwing Away the Crutches

In an attempt to avoid further misunderstanding, I thought I'd posts my understanding of where we are at the moment. Please correct anything that I have missed or misunderstood.

We have two cities. Paris is a working settler pump. Orleans is working on a granary and then will able to be another settler pump. Both could produce workers or other units if we want, but their main purpose is producing settlers at the moment.

We need another city that will act as a worker pump.

Other cities need to emphasize commerce to aid our research.

We will need to settle two cities in Buce's set. One location has been decided, the other one is still up for discussion.

Does that pretty much sum it up? I think any other decisions are still open for discussion.

I thought it was like this:

Paris: Settler factory, soon to be combo warrior-settler factory.
Orleans: Worker pump* when granary comes in.

Next two cities: Blue dot, and [open]

I propose that [open] go to the green dot -- next to the game NWish of Orleans.

* I'd prefer making this a settler factory once it has the shields necessary to do so, but it doesn't seem like a consensus has been reached. OTOH, we do have a couple of new sites that could act as worker pumps once they're settled...

Am I just completely out to lunch on this? :crazyeye:
 
Am I just completely out to lunch on this? :crazyeye:

Not at all. It explains the confusion though. We have been working under different assumptions. I'll need to take a closer look to give your assumptions proper consideration. I can probably do that tomorrow morning as today is a bit tight for me.

Am I wrong in thinking that Orleans could be a settler pump if we so desired?
 
Right then, there has obviously been some serious misunderstanding.

Let's all get on the same page.

I'm not a quant (big props to those that are). Unfortunately, the spreadsheets just confused me. What I do know is that we have an unimproved cow (my call), that could have been producing more for us than it is.

Let's forget about any previous plans and just start with what we have and figure out what we want to do.

I was thinking that we had established two cities (Paris and Orleans) that were going to be settler pumps so that we could get our 30ish-city empire established as soon as possible.

Those two cities are fundamentally settler pumps, but can build workers or warriors as we need them in the early turns.

I thought that the two would be enough, but through the discussion realized that we would need another worker pump to get us where we want to be. I figure we have some time on this as we still haven't seen all the land we wanted to settle and two dedicated settler pumps seems a bit excessive at the moment.

So, we should look to our two current cities for the units we need now. As our two current cities can produce what we need (warriors and workers), city 3 should be either the worker pump we want (not immediately necessary) or a currency city (an early river city with growth potential and some shields for the foundation of our long-term empire).

All the talk about pumps has taken our focus away from the big picture: research. We have the pumps we want now, let's focus on getting the empire that will take us to the stars.

Buce's blue dot gives us nice BG river tiles that will build us what we want while funding science (once improved). This is not a given, just what makes the most sense to me, please feel free to discuss.

The rule of 1 worker per city is a good rule of thumb to follow. we only have one worker for a potential 3 cities. That is a lot of unimproved tiled being worked. As I said, I am no quant, but 5 tiles over 5 turns is 25 lost something.

If you showed me the save with no explanation, I would say that getting workers out is a priority. The fact that we are using the slider would also indicate that some MPs would be a priority as well.

Lets get our potentially fantastic empire under control and worry about how to expand it after that.

City 4 is still undetermined in my books (both purpose and location).
 
I basically agree with Phaedo. Slider must favour research. We need MPs for that and luxes. But we also need to explore. So I would say 3rd city shout be put on warriors for some time - blue dot is fine for that. So let's do that and take it from there.

Right now I would say 4th or 5th city should make the incense connectable; 4th or 5th city should have a rax and produce some veteran units (you never can tell). 6th can be an additional farm. But we do not have to decide that now.
 
Right, guys, I think it's time for a frank exchange of views. Ever since this game started, I've felt a sense of unease with the direction being taken. Unfortunately, because I don't have an understanding of how spreadsheets work, I've been unable to put my finger on what the problem is. What I do have, though, is an instinctive feel for the game, an instinct honed over scores of games played at the highest levels. And every instinct I have has been telling me the spreadsheets are wrong. Not wrong per se, but giving the wrong answers. I liken it to computer error; when my utilities company messes-up my bill, they blame 'computer error'. That's BS. Computers don't make mistakes, they give answers derived from the data that is inputted to them. If they are giving the wrong answer, it's because they are being asked the wrong question; and that's what's happening here. If you ask a spreadsheet what's the most efficient way to build a granary, it will tell you. What it won't tell you is whether you should be building the granary. But, okay, talk's cheap; I trust my instincts 100%, and I would have hoped that I'd proved myself enough times for other people to give me the respect that I believe I've earned the right to, but this doesn't appear to be the case. So I've put my money where my mouth is, and replayed these first 33 turns my way. And the results make for very interesting reading. I will upload the save for anyone who wants it, but in the meantime here are the comparative stats (mine in bold type):



2 towns 3 towns
3 warriors (1 MP, 2 explorers) 6 warriors (4 MP, 2 explorers)
1 worker 3 workers
Science 60% Science 90%
Lux 30% Lux 0%
Writing due in 21 turns Writing due in 13 turns
Granary due in Orleans in 19 turns Granary due in Orleans in 15 turns
114 explored tiles 117 explored tiles
2 fully improved tiles 4 fully improved tiles
5 partially improved tiles 3 partially improved tiles

As you can plainly see, my shadow game is superior in every way. And that doesn't even tell the whole story. Because I have more improved tiles, the gap will grow further upon growth. Because I have more workers, the gap between improved tiles will continue to grow. Because I have (and will have) more improved tiles, the gap between Orleans finishing its granary will also grow. Because Paris is already running as a SF in my game, I will gain a new town every 4 turns, whereas in the team game it won't be producing settlers for another 8 turns minimum, so that gap will also grow. As a further consequence to these things, the gap between finishing Writing will also grow. Because I will have settlers built earlier, the incense will be settled earlier. Because I have more workers, the incense wil be connected earlier, meaning science will be able to run at 100%, further increasing the gap between research rate. In short, our game is a bloody mess.

So what do we do? As I see it we have three options:

1) We continue doggedly with this clearly flawed strategy.

2) We attempt to get the game back on track.

3) We abandon the game, and play off my save.

Option 1 is unacceptable to me. I will not knowingly or willingly play a game that badly.

Option 2 requires a radical overhaul of strategy. Firstly, the spreadsheets must be abandoned; because neither myself or Phaedo understand how to use them to their best advantage, we are excluded from strategic input. Secondly, we must build at least two workers before anything else; one worker to (soon to be) three towns is something even a newbie would recognize as wrong. Thirdly we must build three more warriors asap to maximize MP use and drive down the lux slider. Fourthly, we must abandon any idea of running Paris as a combo factory - this is clearly a flawed approach. To do so requires running the lux slider between 20% and 30%, even with MPs. And what is the perceived gain by doing so? A warrior every fourth turn? Any new towns can build their own warriors for MP - there is nothing else currently for them to build. Ran as a pure SF, Paris can go from size 3-5 which requires running the lux slider between 0% and 10%. With incense on-line it would remain at 0%. It will take at least all of the rest of my set to put these things right, and until the effect of the changes are felt, we will fall further behind where we should be at. I doubt very much that the slingshot is now achievable.

Option 3 is my favoured approach; we are not in competition with anyone, and re-starting a game is hardly without precedent. And, frankly, it's our game to do with as we wish.

Finally, if in future anyone feels sufficiently frustrated to want to throw their toys out of the pram, I would appreciate it if they did so by PM; public displays of petulance are undignified, and disrespectful to the other team members.
 

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I have no problem with Option 3. I am very interested in how you achieved the improved result, because I'd really like to learn where we went wrong.

The problem (and strength) of spreadsheets is that they force you to a minute level of detail. To get that right is - well, a lot of work basically. To do it completely right, you would actually have to make spreadsheets of all different scenarios and then compare - even more work. And then there is the problem of growing information: you can sure look ahead at turn 10 for 30 turns, but, as the exploring warriors showed, you do not know what you will know at turn 20.

Having said that, spreadsheets sometimes can show you some long term effects, if based on assumptions that prove out right and relevant. For example, comparing numbers for strategies at turn x do not prove per se that the then superior position will still be superior 40 turns later; there may be a break-even point after which the numbers favour the other strategy. (Comparing the saves though, this is not the case in our current situation).

I have no doubt that if you were sitting here beside me I could explain you how spreadsheets work in 20 minutes; online, that is a bit more difficult.

We could probably benefit from a more agile approach to planning this game: we have a primary goal, win by space, and that sets the long term strategy. For the short term details, however, we need not be more specific then say what is needed for the next turnset, or maybe 2.
 
There is an option 4: replaying as a team from the original save with Buce directing us toward his shadow save. That would give TT and anyone else that was interested a better sense of what happened between the two saves.

I have only briefly looked at the save, which is obviously so much superior to our present situation, but will have a closer look before posting my thoughts on which route I think we should take. I recommend that the other team members check out the shadow save before weighing in on a decision as well(maybe you already have TT). Lets try to start this new phase of the game off with careful considered consensus.
 
Buce, the tone of your post seemed very aggressive and condescending to me (and towards me specifically). Was that your intention? PM me.

Anyway, regarding the game, I'll echo the request for at least a rough turnlog -- seeing the (spoileriffic) shadow set save does me no good if I don't know what you did to get there.

As for comparing the saves ... in point of fact, Paris is running as a 4-turn SF right now in both games.

If we continue this game, I'd prefer to do so from the "live" save. Shadow sets are great for learning, but I'd rather avoid doing any reloading. If we're going to abandon this (admittedly contentious) start, let's do it with a new map.

Finally, if in future anyone feels sufficiently frustrated to want to throw their toys out of the pram, I would appreciate it if they did so by PM; public displays of petulance are undignified, and disrespectful to the other team members.

*wince* You really should have followed your own advice and sent that part by PM, mate. :nono:
 
I am very interested in how you achieved the improved result, because I'd really like to learn where we went wrong.

Tusker said:
Anyway, regarding the game, I'll echo the request for at least a rough turnlog -- seeing the (spoileriffic) shadow set save does me no good if I don't know what you did to get there.

Unfortunately, it didn't occur to me to keep a turnlog. However, I've got a pretty good idea what made the difference. In the original game, worker turns were used to road exclusively (with the exception of the first cow being irrigated). I seem to remember querying the fact that the spreadsheet wasn't making sufficient allowance for what would happen once Paris built its first settler and shrank back to pop 1. Although I watered the cow first, IIRC, things worked out even up until that point. The differences began once Paris expanded to size 2 again, 4 turns later. In the original game, the second citizen went to the second cow, which was only partially improved. In my game that tile was fully improved, giving one extra shield. The same thing happened with the next growth, 4 turns later. Once again, in the original game the new citizen went to work on a paritally improved BG. In my game, that BG was fully improved, giving one more extra shield. So at that point there was a 2 shield discrepancy, which ended up with the granary coming in several turns earlier in my game. That is what allowed me the luxury of building a couple of workers, and still being able to put out an earlier second settler.

The other major difference was with Orleans. In the original game it was set to build a granary, with the citizen working the unimproved wheat tile. In my game, I sacrificed growth for shields; it was set to build warriors, with the citizen working the forest/game tile, which - being a river tile - also added 1 gold to the treasury, increasing science output. Also, having these early warriors for MP duty allowed me to keep science at 100%, which is why Writing is so much nearer to being researched.

There are probably other minor differences, but IMO those two things had the most influence.

Tusker, the save is hardly 'spoilerific'; we can see a few different tiles beyond our borders, something which we ought to be seeing before we send out a settler, anyway. Beyond that, we have met no-one, and haven't found any new resources, nothing at all that would affect the way the game would be played.
 
There is obviously no question that the new save is better. The extra city, the extra units and the slider make that glaringly obvious.

The big differences (not surprisingly) comes from the fact that bonus tiles were fully improved. Most interesting is that those improved tiles added much more value than a forest chop. The fundamental flaw in our original game was to go for a chop with our first worker (if at all). It was that chop that drove the worker moves in my turn and caused me to neglect tile improvement.

There is a good lesson to be learned there about the effectiveness of improvement over chops. But these are the same old rules of thumbs that have been repeated over and over again: avoid working unimproved tiles, fully improve bonus tiles before moving the worker etc. I thought that in the years since I have played perhaps a tricky way to out produce those tried and true rules might have been devised, but I guess not.

If we played from the original saves, I agree it wouldn't be too spoilerish. We would still have to get on warrior and worker builds and those warriors would still be sent to the same areas that have been exposed in the new save. Those were the areas we expressed a desire to explore anyway.

It is a bit disheartening to play a game that has been so flawed, but could be looked at as a challenge. I wouldn't mind a restart with another map. I'm not in love with the idea of just playing Buce's save, but I don't really have any ethical issues with it or anything like that. I see real value in the team trying to reproduce successful results. It might get a flow going and would give everyone a clear idea of where we wanted to get to. The one stipulation would have to be that we couldn't explore in other directions until we had opened up as much as Buce's save.
 
Unfortunately, it didn't occur to me to keep a turnlog.

Too bad; that erodes the value of the shadow turnset. OTOH...

However, I've got a pretty good idea what made the difference. In the original game, worker turns were used to road exclusively (with the exception of the first cow being irrigated). I seem to remember querying the fact that the spreadsheet wasn't making sufficient allowance for what would happen once Paris built its first settler and shrank back to pop 1. Although I watered the cow first, IIRC, things worked out even up until that point. The differences began once Paris expanded to size 2 again, 4 turns later. In the original game, the second citizen went to the second cow, which was only partially improved. In my game that tile was fully improved, giving one extra shield. The same thing happened with the next growth, 4 turns later. Once again, in the original game the new citizen went to work on a paritally improved BG. In my game, that BG was fully improved, giving one more extra shield. So at that point there was a 2 shield discrepancy, which ended up with the granary coming in several turns earlier in my game. That is what allowed me the luxury of building a couple of workers, and still being able to put out an earlier second settler.

This gives a pretty good outline of the different decisions you made. As for the spreadsheet, as I assured you before, it did account for Paris dropping to size 1 -- unfortunately, I was driving for "How do we get those forests chopped with our Worker before both Granaries complete?" rather than "How do we most optimally build more Warriors and Workers in Paris?" This is where a more even approach to spreadsheets by the entire team would have helped -- I'm sure we'd have analyzed more options if everyone had written up a spreadsheet (and been comfortable with using one, of course).

TBH, I never considered running Paris as a size 3 to size 5 SF. To put it simply, I like the idea of running it as a combo factory. I've never run one before, and it just seems really cool. OTOH, by time it can be up and running, it doesn't help us much (we'll have half a dozen cities building Warriors, and we'll be close to building better units anyway). Plus, not needing to use the lux slider helps us by quite a bit.

The other major difference was with Orleans. In the original game it was set to build a granary, with the citizen working the unimproved wheat tile. In my game, I sacrificed growth for shields; it was set to build warriors, with the citizen working the forest/game tile, which - being a river tile - also added 1 gold to the treasury, increasing science output. Also, having these early warriors for MP duty allowed me to keep science at 100%, which is why Writing is so much nearer to being researched.

There are probably other minor differences, but IMO those two things had the most influence.

It's enough to get the idea.

Tusker, the save is hardly 'spoilerific'; we can see a few different tiles beyond our borders, something which we ought to be seeing before we send out a settler, anyway. Beyond that, we have met no-one, and haven't found any new resources, nothing at all that would affect the way the game would be played.


Given your penchant for it, I'm sure you can forgive me a minor foray into the realm of hyperbole ;)


There is obviously no question that the new save is better. The extra city, the extra units and the slider make that glaringly obvious.

The big differences (not surprisingly) comes from the fact that bonus tiles were fully improved. Most interesting is that those improved tiles added much more value than a forest chop. The fundamental flaw in our original game was to go for a chop with our first worker (if at all). It was that chop that drove the worker moves in my turn and caused me to neglect tile improvement.

There is a good lesson to be learned there about the effectiveness of improvement over chops. But these are the same old rules of thumbs that have been repeated over and over again: avoid working unimproved tiles, fully improve bonus tiles before moving the worker etc. I thought that in the years since I have played perhaps a tricky way to out produce those tried and true rules might have been devised, but I guess not.

If we played from the original saves, I agree it wouldn't be too spoilerish. We would still have to get on warrior and worker builds and those warriors would still be sent to the same areas that have been exposed in the new save. Those were the areas we expressed a desire to explore anyway.

It is a bit disheartening to play a game that has been so flawed, but could be looked at as a challenge. I wouldn't mind a restart with another map. I'm not in love with the idea of just playing Buce's save, but I don't really have any ethical issues with it or anything like that. I see real value in the team trying to reproduce successful results. It might get a flow going and would give everyone a clear idea of where we wanted to get to. The one stipulation would have to be that we couldn't explore in other directions until we had opened up as much as Buce's save.

I'll agree that Buce's shadow save shows a better position than the team save, but "so flawed" seems like it's overdoing it. By comparison, the empire in SOGK still didn't have a second city until 2270BC or so (Turn 36, I think, halfway between 2550 and 2150BC). In Slavemasters, the second city was built in 2850BC, or Turn 23, and the third city was founded on Turn 39. I'd say we're currently ahead of both games, even in the "disaster" :rolleyes: of the team save.

I'm still adamantly opposed to reloading; it just doesn't seem right to me. That said, if you guys want to start over, I'd be fine with picking a new map. If, OTOH, we're going to continue with this save, we'll need a consensus approach. Not pointless bickering or misunderstood spreadsheets or demands that the game be played "my way" (I think just about everyone on the team is guilty of at least one of these, myself included).

I propose that Buce finish his current set -- I think he has more than enough to go on for turns 34-40 of the game. Once that's in, we can figure out our next steps.

What do you guys think?
 
Aw, gee, fellas. I didn't mean to kill the thread!

If it's that important to you guys to restart, just go ahead and restart. I can revert to lurker status, no big deal.
 
I'd say go for it Spoon. I'm on a bit of a CIV kick lately and don't see myself getting back to this game.
 
Maybe I should pick up Buce's save, play a few turns to try and revive this game?

Sure, Spoons, go ahead. I no longer have any interest in this, or any other SG, but it seems a shame for an interesting variant to go to waste. And I can't think of anyone who I'd rather see play it out. :)
 
Sure, Spoons, go ahead. I no longer have any interest in this, or any other SG, but it seems a shame for an interesting variant to go to waste. And I can't think of anyone who I'd rather see play it out. :)

I believe I felt the way you do about Successsion Games a while back after trying 4+ people SGs. Then I remembered I had played an SG with DWetzel and it played *a lot* differently than other ones. Then I played another 2 player SG and it went well. A 2 player SG feels a lot different than a 4+ player SG game, and it seems a lot easier to see what's going on, get back on track, communicate with your team, etc. Just a thought you might want to keep in mind... that is if RL permits, of course.

As to this game, I have some other things in mind at the moment, so I might come back to this and see what I can do. But, since this seems like a dead SG, and it seems like a good idea, does it seem fair to say that this is now an open SG in that anyone can pick it up and post their game notes here?
 
But, since this seems like a dead SG, and it seems like a good idea, does it seem fair to say that this is now an open SG in that anyone can pick it up and post their game notes here?

That would be fine by me, though it would be polite to check with Elephantium and ThinkTank before anyone was to do so.
 
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