T228:
Took the peace as noted already. MASSIVE micro rearrangement after dozens of citizens got back to work from street rioting.
Tech path didn't raise strong feelings so I'm following my nose here. I notice Sury already got Communism ~5 turns ago. While I was thinking about Astro now or later, our GE and the slight chance to get the Kremlin popped into mind. It was the small thing that tipped me to take Astro right away, after which I remembered we'd need ~ 4.5k more prerequisites for it in the form of Education and Liberalism

Oh well, not a biggie. Though Astro did take our gpt down by around 140 as thought.
After that anticlimactic start, I upgrade some Galleons, both for troop ferrying and using the couple of Settlers we have sitting around.
Revolt to Vassalage, -5gpt. Cheap as pie.
Yekaterinburg will probably flip over to Sury but that's quite inconsequential, though it does have a settled GG and a GP.
T229:
SB Gets Steam Power, so I don't think we can kill him without Infantry.
Everyone and their mama has Chemistry so I buy it. Might as well, Nat won't be useful for a little while longer and at least it gives us a handful of hammers while opening Steel if Sury decides to get it. Alternative is Education->Liberalism->Scimet->Communism; that will take well over 10k gold probably and is not
that urgent. Joao doesn't have Military Science btw, good news for us. Should he go there we should probably get Cavs. Scimet->Physics for blimps is also possible.
T230:
Stalin's last stand is less than epic.
Joao speeds up research, 6 turns left on Steel. 8 on our peace. Stalin also actually finishes a tech with the single unimproved city! (RP)
Good news(?), Sury's culture blocks Joao completely from counterattacking on land. Means he can only counterattack with a navy, so should leave troops in the Bibracte area and be ready with scouts.
Nothing is happening in the world. Not a single UI notification.
T231:
Woopsie, Sury is weehorn. Don't know when he went into it. He has tons of units everywhere too. Need to hurry up to avoid him capping Joao, that would be pretty bad for us. Saving cash for now to bribe him to peace if need be, though he got Steel as well this turn. Oh the choices... Well, we don't have enough cash for Steel yet so no choices to be made.
Sury is also cherry picking the coziest new world spots as you can see:
T232:
Aww, Sury heard my criticism and stole my handpicked spot on the southern new world this turn
T233:
Sury declares on Joao, and would want over 4000 gold (don't know how much) for peace. Cavalry, Rifle and Cannon against Muskets and Trebs.

I think we should aim to try to bribe him to peace... I don't see Joao lasting very long. Neither peace or steel can be gotten on the table with our current cash still. 5 turns left on the peace.
He's even making our Astro useless by attacking Stalin! Damn that Sury... If Stalin wouldn't break free that would mean quite a surefire capitulation shield. I saw that navy detachment of his en-route, but I automatically thought it was a settler party. D'oh, should have noticed it had stacked (2) Galleons which can't mean anything else than an invasion AFAIK. Well, picking Astro was right in the sense that Stalin didn't break free voluntarily.
Traded SB's new world Wheat with Crabs.
T234:
We have 4780g, Sury is willing to take peace for 4500g. Steel is 4375g. I don't really know what's the way to go here so I stopped. Sury has
Artillery already. He's teching like a speed devil with his 19 cities and all the gold we are feeding him.
If I should choose right away I'd probably wait until Sury eradicates Stalin and then bribe him to peace, hoping Joao doesn't bend over immediately. Waiting will probably make the peace price higher though. Haven't seen a big-ass SoD of Sury's. It
might have been trapped in Coimbra, preventing the upgrade of siege engines to Cannons (now he can make Artys wherever he wants obviously). No vision to make sure.
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I feel like things were spiraling out of control for the whole turnset (5½ turns). Sury's teching is insane and our state-of-the-art army is nigh-useless soon against anyone but Joao.
With the settlers I was aiming for mainly the Gold and Whale spots on the northern landmass, along with the Wheat the barb cities have. Unclaimed happy and health is the main benefit of those colonies. There's a third settler boat on its way, probably to grab some site on the southern one. Our Rifleman boats are a tad on the useless side now that Sury attacked Stalin. They could grab those juicy looking barb cities though. Maybe we should after all set our sights a bit more on the new world?
The GE, well I doubt a lot we'll be getting any worthwhile world wonders with it. My vote is on rushing Ironworks to Moscow (though obviously we don't have either Steel or Steam Power yet). It has 2 settled GGs and potential for 40+ base production. Another GP will pop next turn.
Our land army is around 20 Rifles, 15 Trebs and 10 Phants within striking distance. Should be enough to make ~quick work of Joao if we get the chance, he's still lacking anything useful (though he gets Cannons in 2).