CFC betting game - Survivor S8G7

[Fippy]

Adding all that up will be fun..oh well i have time.

 

[Gumbolt]

Wow you offered 1000 points on Lizzy to win. I could of been on 1.1m chips.

 

[elitetroops]

Let's go Lizzy!

Gumbo probably still ahead of me.

 

[Fippy]

Eauxps 18k
Keler 137.5k (some really good picks)
Thrasy 25k
Nick723 25k
Elite 425k
Sittindown 44.9k
Kaitzilla 0
Chalybion 47.5k
My 36k
Saxo 75.750
Gumbo 500k
Plains-cow 0
Lymo 51.750 (no change)

Lizzy T225 was generous in retrospect, i would be curious how often she dies before that.
Anyways right now we have Elite & Gumbo very close on top, with Keler lurking in 3rd.

 

[Gumbolt]

Yeah T225 Lizzy was a no brainer. 1000k on Lizzy first was very generous. I know you didn't rate the English chance this game but they keep proving people wrong. Never underestimate financial trait when the Ai is tucked away. English could not declare at pleased here but it hardly mattered.

 

[elitetroops]

Lizzy T225 was generous in retrospect, i would be curious how often she dies before that.

So far this season, In 7 games 7 leaders have died before T225. Only Game 6 had 2 eliminations before that, game 5 had none. Betting Lizzy is alive at T225 is pretty much the same as betting she is not FTD. It was indeed some pretty generous odds for that.

 

[Gumbolt]

Ai are rubbish at war. If Mylene thought the English would win then that bet would of never have been offered. Whatever date she picked she would of been paying out. Even T300 might of been a great bet.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

Can I have a request a bet special for game 8:

'Two Romes' - Julius Caesar and Augustus Caesar finish 1st and 2nd (in either order)

 

[Keler]

I have a request too. Since it is not possible to predict who founds first 3 religions we can try predict about them. But low values probably. +150 +200 kind of.
Stuff like Agustus finds medi or poly religion +250
Louis finds monotheism religion etc. +150
Just example, dont know if it is a good idea though

 

[Fippy]

I'm not good with predicting odds for that, Keler.
For the final i want to avoid potentially too good specials.

 

[Gumbolt]

Can I have a request a bet special for game 8:

'Two Romes' - Julius Caesar and Augustus Caesar finish 1st and 2nd (in either order)

I think JC is already favourite.

I'm not good with predicting odds for that, Keler.
For the final i want to avoid potentially too good specials.

Yeah all these specials have mostly led to big wins. GLH one too. Culture odds should be slashed.

 

[Fippy]

I think culture +600 was fair, all things considered.
Only Lizzy was a real candidate for it..her getting (really) all wonders wasn't easily predictable.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

I would have given Cultural +300 not only because I thought Elizabeth had a good chance to win, but also due to the high number of soft targets with the likelihood to found religions. Of course, I find the victory odds hard to anticipate. It has so much to do with the leaders, and the AI can differ in victory types from one map to another. At least for this season, when in doubt, pick Cultural

 

[Fippy]

I see 9.4% picks on cultural for Sullas contest, +600 doesn't look great in that comparison
Ofc we are much smarter here

 

[Thrasybulos]

Lizzy T225 was generous in retrospect, i would be curious how often she dies before that.

Pretty often, I believe.

But there was always the chance she'd be left alone... and it happened here.
Too bad that with Lizzy surviving the early game Monty wasn't FTD, but oh well.