CFC Picking Game - Survivor S8 Championship

[Fippy]

Many cheers to Cuthraxys for creating a new finals map
And for our final here..can somebody catch Gumbolt?
More specials are waiting to be picked - anything can happen

We get 20k more points.

Rankings
Yaynewplayer: 20k
Nick723: 30k
NZ: 30k
Eauxps: 37.4k
Plains-cow: 38.3k
Elite: 48.5k
Saxo: 70.8k
Keler: 71.7k
Sittindown: 74.1k
Chalybion: 107.660
My: 111k
Kaitzilla: 130.8k
Thrasy: 151.9k
Lymo: 161.225
Gumbo: 275k

Which AI will win?
Mansa x3
Gandhi x4
Lizzy x5
AC x6
Church x10
Qin x15

Who comes in second?
AC x4
Church x5
Mansa x5
Lizzy x6
Gandhi x7
Qin x10

First to die?
Qin x4
Gandhi x5
Lizzy x6
Mansa x6
Church x8
AC x8

Victory condition?
Culture x2
Space x3
Diplo x6
Domi x9

Specials:
Facepalm - the always funny US switch after completing Pyramids: x5
Dogpile (3vs1 or worse): x3
Poor Qin super dogpile (4vs1 or worse): x8
Barbs show up and capture / raze something: x10
Mansa or Lizzy do not win Lib: x5
Gandhi builds Sistine: x4
Oracle isn't MC or Monarchy: x9
4 or more AIs follow the same religion (on any turn): x4
Nukes: x8
English Civil war (Liz vs Church), must be 1vs1 for at least 1 turn: x7
Qin & AC use IND and build both TGW + GLH (doesn't matter who builds what or both wonders): x6

Power-up specials:
No AI dies: x100
Qin wins by Diplo: x90
370+ turns: x50
265- turns: x40
5 or less wars: x60
15 or more wars: x30
Lizzy or Gandhi win Domination: x70
No AI opens with Fishing or Hunting research: x80
FTD happens before turn 120: x60

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

I'm surprised the payout for Cultural Victory is so high

 

[Fippy]

x2 doesn't help much with catching Gumbo

 

[Noble Zarkon]

NZ: 30k
No AI dies: x100

On this map there's a chance - so all in please!

 

[Fippy]

I think it will be popular, yup.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Can lightning strike twice????

All in on "No AI opens with Fishing or Hunting research"

 

[ManiaMuse89]

I will have 20k on 'No-one to die' please.

In my tests it has only happened once and it was a game with a Gandhi turn 260 culture win so there is a chance.

 

[Plains-Cow]

I am putting it all on no AI dies!

 

[elitetroops]

I couldn't find the spreadsheet for S1, but in the 90 games played since S2, it has happened twice that the first AI was eliminated pre t120. That would make the x60 odds seem not too bad. However, in both cases, the unalived party was attacked before they had metals hooked up or even researched archery. On this map, with guaranteed copper for everyone and capitals very far from each other, I don't see that happening. Instead I'll go:

All in on 265- turns!

 

[Keler]

10k on Nukes
10k on Dominant religion 4 AIs follow same
10k on English civil war
6.7k on AC&QSH IND power
5k on Lizard wins
5k on AC wins
5k on AC is second
5k on 370 turns
5k on Elizabeth or Gandhi domino victory
5k Domination victory
5k Oracle isn't boring

 

[lymond]

I'm placing everything on Cromwell!!!

 

[Fippy]

I think that means Liz vs Church?

 

[SittinDown]

50 k Mansa to win

24.1k on no one dies.

 

[Kaitzilla]

10.8k - Barbs show up and capture / raze something: x10
90k - English Civil war (Liz vs Church), must be 1vs1 for at least 1 turn:

10k - 370+ turns
10k - 265- turns
10k - No AI opens with Fishing or Hunting research

 

[Fippy]

10k Lizzy wins
5k Qin wins

10k Qin second

10k Mansa FTD

5k Domi

5k Facepalm
5k Qin super dogpile
5k Barbs
10k no Lib for Mansa or Liz
5k weird Oracle
10k same religion
5k Nukes
10k IND wonders

5k 265- turns
5k 5- wars
6k 15+ wars

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

6k Qin Shihuang first

5.3k Qin Shihuang second
2.3k Churchill second

2.7k Gandhi first-to-die
2.6k Mansa Musa first-to-die
2.6k Churchill first-to-die

2.7k Domination

1k Facepalm
3.2k Dogpile
2.6k 4vQin
2k Barbs raze/capture
2.6k Gandhi Sistine
3k English Civil War
2.6k Indie Power!

2.9k Qin Diplo
4.3k 370+ Turns
4.3k 265- Turns
3.2k 5 Wars or less
3.2k 15 Wars or more
2.2k Elizabeth/Gandhi Domination
4.3k No Fishing/Hunting to start
5.2k Pre-120T FTD

 

[Fippy]

Some with a good amount of points didn't pick yet, so a quick reminder:
@Gumbolt @Thrasybulos @Chalybion

 

[Gumbolt]

Okay only 275k to play with here.
25k Liz to win
40k no fishing or hunting.
40k English civil war
20k Qin first to die.
20k under 265 turns
20k diplo
20k Barbs show up and raze a city,.
20k AC second.
20k Lizzy or Gandhi dom
20k Mansa win
30k Nukes

Bit of a rush but that will have to do. @Fippy

 

[Thrasybulos]

30K Lizzy wins
30K Qin 2nd
30K Domination

1.9K Barbs!

10K No AI dies
10K 370+ turns
10K 265- turns
10K 5 or less wars
10K 15 or more wars
10K Lizzy or Gandhi win Domination

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

No AI opens with Fishing or Hunting research: x80

FAILED. Everybody except Gandhi started Hunting

And I'm out for the season. In this, as in fantasy, I did well in the opening round but busted in the playoffs.