1) personas. The way I read your post it's like gamers come to Civ for 1 thing and 1 thing only, a good strategy game - a puzzle to solve. I think it's borne out quite thoroughly on social media since Civ VII that previous Civ games appealed to multiple personas, but this game alienates some before they even get to the point of finding out it's not fun.
You are absolutely correct. For example, one thing I wasn't able to articulate well was the issue of immersion. Fortunately, The Saxy Gamer just put out a video on that point (
link), and I'm going to incorporate a discussion of that into a future version.
That you are speaking to only one of these personas crystallised for me when you put forward the idea that a game without win conditions can't be considered 4x. I think that is demonstrably untrue from the number of players who had enormous fun with previous Civ titles without finishing games.
Guilty as charged. And I actually agree with you - I don't finish most of my games either. The real reason I put that line in was that I did not like that Firaxis put in the option to disable Legacy Paths but removed the win conditions, so that there was never even the option of winning a Science victory. They lawyered the term "sandbox" instead of doing what the previous games did - allow freedom to blaze your own path towards that goal (regardless of whether or not you finish). "Malicious compliance" is the term I used.
I'll think about whether I want to keep that line - I already covered the sandbox point, so it's extraneous, and it does conflict with my later section on "Players don't finish games."
2) marketing. A lot of Civ veterans have outright rejected the vision of Civ VII as not being conceptually a civ game anymore essentially. No amount of making the game fun is going to appeal to this group.
Agreed. All I can do is offer suggestions for making it fun for the people who would accept it if it were well done.
I've got a similar problem with Old World - logically I should like it, as the characters far more deftly implement a gameplay concept of abilities changing over time (i.e., what civ-switching was attempting to accomplish). But I just can't shake the feeling that I'm managing a high-school drama.
Last week on "As the Civ Turns": Tavos the Diplomat doesn't like Rianya the Chancellor because she didn't invite Tavos to her birthday party, so she won't let her son court Tavos' daughter. Will love win the day?
Civ has rebranded itself for Civ VII because it knows it's competing against Civ VI. The series is a victim of its own success, and because Civ VI is so fun and replayable to many, and has taken almost a decade of development to reach that point, they opted for a different approach this time to capture additional audiences and offer a different style of Civ game, and it's backfired quite considerably.
Oh yeah. My original title for "The Phantom Audience" was "Civ VII: Veilguard" but even I'm not that mean.
The problem for a persona of Civ gamers is baked into the vision statement itself. It's rejected on principle, and they can't be won over by improving the fun. That Firaxis is pivoting to try to win this persona over is not a wrong development, but I would agree they are attacking it in the wrong order. Make the game fun, then appeal to a broader base. As it stands they are trying to appeal to a broader base with a game they won't enjoy when and if they decide to buy it anyway on a 50/50 chance based on the odds of the people who liked it enough to buy it in the first place (so presumably anyone else's odds are on fact lower...)
I didn't intend for it to sound like an outright rejection of their concerns. Those issues are so visible they suck all of the oxygen out of the room, and I wanted to focus on the silent but deadly items that are problematic in their own way. I attempted to acknowledge those issues but perhaps I can strengthen that. But it is already well on its way to being a novella.
I think it's because they've produced the 4X equivalent of new coke.
I might just steal that line.

(With proper attribution of course)
Really enjoyed your post though, I think what I'm getting at is I think it should be longer
It's already a cure for insomnia. Any longer and it could get classified as a WMD.
The Google Docs version has another ten pages, mostly focused on the single-stack architecture and how it shaped the game behind the scenes. Good stuff, but only something a Technical Product Manager would love.
Thanks for your awesome comments! I really enjoyed reading them and they've given me lots to think about.