COVID-19 virus thread (formerly Wuhan coronavirus)

Status
Not open for further replies.
The spread throughout Latin America:

The President of Mexico insists that physical contact is not to blame for contagion.
The President of Argentina repeats the wrong (scientifically wrong) claim that drinking warm liquids protects against coronavirus infection.
The President of El Salvador has forbidden the entry of all foreigners other than diplomatic personnel in an attempt to prevent the disease from spreading into his country.
The government of Cuba admits to having at least three cases of coronavirus.
If you can read Españish, I recommend this message from Spanish virologist & immunologist Margarita del Val on how to fight the spread.
Sofista said:
We... have... bidets!! :lol:
Click to expand...
Esatto! Bidets are awesome.
 
Last edited:
civvver said:
What I noticed about Trump's speech which I watched later online was yes he mentioned it as being foreign but he blamed Europe of all places. He said Europe didn't ban travel to/from China and as a result they got infected and we got infected from European travelers, hence the ban. Kinda makes no sense to me. Basically everyone's fault but ours.
Click to expand...


Right now Europe should be treated as toxic. But that includes the UK. In fact Germany's and the UK's "strategy" for handling the virus is plain insane:

Boris Johnson’s government hasn’t quite said it, but it’s plan for tackling coronavirus is clear: Slow the disease’s spread, but don’t stop it. Most people will get the disease, a lot of them will feel very ill, but almost all of them will recover.
The goal is “herd immunity” -- the point where a high enough proportion of the population has had an illness, and gained immunity to it, that it won’t be transmitted to those who haven’t had it. The aim is to achieve this over the summer months, before the next winter sets in.
“What you can’t do is suppress this thing completely, and what you shouldn’t do is suppress it completely,” Patrick Vallance, the U.K.’s chief scientific adviser, said on Monday. “All that happens then is it pops up again later in the year, when the NHS is at a more vulnerable stage in the winter, and you end up with another problem.”
Click to expand...

So let 50 million people catch it, 2% death rate... a million dead for that "herd immunity" strategy to "succeed". If 60 or 70% of the herd get it, they are already in the worst scenario. The "herd" might or might not be immune afterwards, but it will have already been ravaged with maximum damage! I think the term herd happens to convey quite accurately what they think of their own population.
 
Just read in the news. An old couple in Italy lived together for 60 years and died in one day.
 
red_elk said:
Just read in the news. An old couple in Italy lived together for 60 years and died in one day.
Click to expand...

My mom's best friend always answered "how long do you want to live?" with "half an hour longer than Jim." I talk to her once in a while. Jim's been dead for pushing twenty years, and my mom has been dead for four. I'm pretty sure she would consider this couple to have had a good outcome.
 
Commodore said:
The death rate is likely well below 1% when you consider that a lot of people who catch the virus don't display any symptoms at all or only suffer from mild symptoms. Those people obviously will not seek medical attention and therefore will never be officially diagnosed with the virus, which means they will never be factored into the calculations for determining the mortality rate.
Click to expand...

I'd love to believe that, but I just can't. There are plenty of papers about the situation in china, and more recently about Korea, where there was extensive testing. Korea has the lowest death rate, it'll probably be around 1%, but they did everything possible to treat those who needed attention, and managed to contain the spread early.
If millions of people catch it, there will not be the necessary care available. The death rate under those conditions can be 2%, 3%, possibly more. No responsible government could be pushing its own people into that scenario. There's ample proof that it can be avoided.
 
innonimatu said:
I'd love to believe that, but I just can't. There are plenty of papers about the situation in china, and more recently about Korea, where there was extensive testing. Korea has the lowest death rate, it'll probably be around 1%, but they did everything possible to treat those who needed attention, and managed to contain the spread early.
If millions of people catch it, there will not be the necessary care available. The death rate under those conditions can be 2%, 3%, possibly more. No responsible government could be pushing its own people into that scenario. There's ample proof that it can be avoided.
Click to expand...

Yes, this is the biggest problem. The issues you get from COVID-19 are usually very treatable... but what happens when the healthcare system is too taxed and is forced to triage?

The people who are eager for the old legislators to get torn apart by the virus are silly, IMO. They have the wealth and connections to skip the line and preempt the worse symptoms. The people who need to use the public system, whether it's privatized like in the US or socialized like most elsewhere, are going to be the suckers. It's why stretching the curve is so important.

If you have 1000 beds and 5000 people with pneumonia, who gets treated? Some people recover from pneumonia without treatment, some don't. Hospitals will be forced to gamble, and they're likely to lose a good portion of that bet.
 
Sofista said:
We... have... bidets!! :lol:
Click to expand...

Still. Even if it takes a year to use up a big giant pack it isn't like toilet paper goes bad. I get the 48 roll pack for the combined price of like four four roll packs.
 
innonimatu said:
I'd love to believe that, but I just can't. There are plenty of papers about the situation in china, and more recently about Korea, where there was extensive testing. Korea has the lowest death rate, it'll probably be around 1%, but they did everything possible to treat those who needed attention, and managed to contain the spread early.
If millions of people catch it, there will not be the necessary care available. The death rate under those conditions can be 2%, 3%, possibly more. No responsible government could be pushing its own people into that scenario. There's ample proof that it can be avoided.
Click to expand...

As I said a few pages back, Diamond Princess and South Korea show us the CFR under the best circumstances: a little under 1%. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong have all done phenomenal jobs at slowing the spread of this disease. Western countries may be able to bring COVID-19 under control and bring numbers down, but the spike is going to be brutal.
 
emzie said:
As I said a few pages back, Diamond Princess and South Korea show us the CFR under the best circumstances: a little under 1%. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong have all done phenomenal jobs at slowing the spread of this disease. Western countries may be able to bring COVID-19 under control and bring numbers down, but the spike is going to be brutal.
Click to expand...

I still think we lack any real data on just how many people catch it, develop mild symptoms if any, and just self medicate with the usual treatments without ever showing up in the statistics.
 
Timsup2nothin said:
Even if it takes a year to use up a big giant pack it isn't like toilet paper goes bad.
Click to expand...

Just put it somewhere where cats can't get to it. Learned from experience.
 
Commodore said:
Agreed. One of those ways is to close borders, which is something a lot of countries are not doing despite the evidence that it works. I already mentioned Russia, but other countries that have closed their borders have had success containing the virus as well. Singapore saw new infections drop dramatically after they closed their borders and Mongolia closed their borders almost immediately and has only had one reported case so far.
Click to expand...

In Europe the problem is that the governments have spent the past weeks, even after the drama in Italy was obvious, in denial. I won't get onto the reasons why because it's political, it wasn't mere incompetence.
I'm guessing that tomorrow they will finally start closing borders. Europe was very capable of doing just that because each country has its own infrastructure and institutions, countries can close borders and impose quarantines on travelers, and still function near-normal, it's less disruptive than a region within a country being isolated. They are just been refusing to do it. This thing can be dealt with in a matter of a couple of months, I think, if done properly. Perhaps public pressure is finally forcing governments to act. But what a lack of leadership, or worse harmful leadership, we've been living with here!
 
Timsup2nothin said:
I still think we lack any real data on just how many people catch it, develop mild symptoms if any, and just self medicate with the usual treatments without ever showing up in the statistics.
Click to expand...

We have *some* -- what happened on the cruise ships and what happened when an outbreak was not controlled but is well-monitored (South Korea). It's limited, but the data between Diamond Princess and South Korea matches up rather well and I think that's something. CFR of around 1%

Ohio's top public health official also stated they estimate, based on modeling, that instead of the 5 confirmed cases in the state, it's more like 1% or ~120,000. Best case scenario, ~1,200 dead in 3 weeks.
 
Senethro said:
So what did you mean and what emotion or thought prompted you to say it?
Click to expand...
I said the virus started in Wuhan and made fun of them eating bats, and a full detachment of race-obsessed psychopaths swarms in to call me all their favorite brand names. And amid all that, modtext weighs in against me. So in regards to what you have asked, neither you nor they deserve an answer. Believe whatever you want. See if I care.

Moderator Action: Remember that PDMA is not permitted on the forums, please. --LM
 
Last edited by a moderator:
IIRC it's not even fully established that eating bats had anything to do with the outbreak. And why it's relevant? Previous flu-like epidemics were related to birds and swines.
 
I thought it had more to do with their seafood markets and the unsanitary conditions there. Was it linked to bats somehow?
 
Tristan_C said:
I said the virus started in Wuhan and made fun of them eating bats, and a full detachment of race-obsessed psychopaths swarms in to call me all their favorite brand names. And amid all that, modtext weighs in against me. So in regards to what you have asked, neither you nor they deserve an answer. Believe whatever you want. See if I care.
Click to expand...

Isn't it surprising how it is always you that attracts all this attention from the racist callers. One might almost think that you have some sort of established trends associated with your brand.
 
Tristan_C said:
I said the virus started in Wuhan and made fun of them eating bats, and a full detachment of race-obsessed psychopaths swarms in to call me all their favorite brand names.
Click to expand...

No, that's how it went. I called Trump's rhetoric gross, and then you stepped in to defend it.
 
Canada and other countries need to start considering banning non-essential travel from the US.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom