Crazy Intrade meltdown!

[AlpsStranger]

Intrade is seriously going crazy right now. Romney is about to breach 50% and is over 50% to win Ohio.

It's not reasonably driven by publicly available data, so does anyone have any idea what it is?

 

[bhsup]

Okay, can someone please educate me about Intrade wrt what they have to do with the election and why I am constantly hearing about them here on CFC?

 

[civ_king]

Okay, can someone please educate me about Intrade wrt what they have to do with the election and why I am constantly hearing about them here on CFC?

here

 

[Patroklos]

Odds, for betting. Putting your money down is better than any poll question.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Yeah, but what's driving it? Have a critical mass of people decided that Romney is going to win? (I'm pretty partisan, but I'm not closed to this possibility.)

Or is something stranger going on? ( Manipulation for profit or perception, for example. )

 

[bhsup]

Okay, so they basically grabbed electoralvote.com map and judged who would win based on it. Big whoop. Though, interesting that they claim Rassmuwhatever is the most accurate when the new york times stoogie says they're full of hot air.

 

[JollyRoger]

Trump putting money down thinking his tweet tomorrow is going to pay off.

 

[Patroklos]

I think you need to reevaluate your cheer leading in the debate thread

 

[civ_king]

Okay, so they basically grabbed electoralvote.com map and judged who would win based on it. Big whoop. Though, interesting that they claim Rassmuwhatever is the most accurate when the new york times stoogie says they're full of hot air.

They just jelly because NYT did horrible at predictions.

 

[JollyRoger]

Okay, so they basically grabbed electoralvote.com map and judged who would win based on it. Big whoop. Though, interesting that they claim Rassmuwhatever is the most accurate when the new york times stoogie says they're full of hot air.

The House of Raz has a history of being most accurate on one poll - the Presidential poll right before the election. All other times, the House of Raz generally outlies to the right.

 

[bhsup]

I think you need to reevaluate your cheer leading in the debate thread

Yeah, I was in a pretty ugly partisan mood last night.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Reverted back to "normal" a little, but it's still more of a coin flip now. There's no Romney advantage, but there's no real Obama advantage either.

Have to see. Either Nate Silver's career is about to end, or he's going to be a super celebrity after November.

EDIT: I still don't get how Ohio supposedly only has a 53% chance to go Obama. Are people simply pricing in future Romney momentum or something?

 

[Dreadnought]

Basically, on intrade, you buy "shares" for x amount of dollars for each candidate; the cost of such shares is the chance they win.

If the candidate does win, you get $10 (each share costs ~$5.00 at this time); if the candidate loses, you get nothing.

So, while it is bidding and betting, there is some amount of gains and losses to be had which force a more objective analysis.

 

[AlpsStranger]

No, I get that Dread.

I just don't get the Ohio as a tossup bit.

 

[History_Buff]

Clearly Romney is going to capture 90% of the votes in Ohio, because how could he not?

 

[Zelig]

Have to see. Either Nate Silver's career is about to end, or he's going to be a super celebrity after November.

I don't see how either of these things could happen.

 

[Earthling]

No, I get that Dread.

I just don't get the Ohio as a tossup bit.

Intrade "odds" are not really driven by expert predictions of any sort but by the market because prices are based on the collective equilibrium of the gamblers.

I think this would probably be right:

Trump putting money down thinking his tweet tomorrow is going to pay off.

This is probably driving a swing, though this one this time likely consists mostly of opportunistic and uninformed bettors. Intrade is historically not very accurate at predicting a lot of things (see: many, many Republican primaries, but again, market driven and foolish gamblers free to bet on Ron Paul etc...) Insider information has played a part in the past - huge bets were placed for Paul Ryan presumably by individuals with inside knowledge shortly before he was officially announced as Mitt Romney's VP selection.

I'm also really tired of hearing about Intrade here in part because it's pretty sure that gambling through the site is illegal in the US. iirc the site itself implicitly acknowledges this by refusing to accept payment or credit from all sorts of United States based companies. If you're in a country where Internet gambling is fine and you intend to do so that's your business, though the overall inaccuracy of Intrade for predicting things is another reason to ignore discussing it here.

 

[Antilogic]

Yeah, I was in a pretty ugly partisan mood last night.

We still think you are our big cuddly conservative papa and wuv you.



Responding to Alps' earlier comment, I think they are definitely pricing in momentum as perceived in the major media. They probably aren't pricing in the early voting returns since that doesn't get publicized anywhere else besides MSNBC and nobody watches them anyway.

 

[classical_hero]

It is amazing what you can bet on these days.

 

[Tee Kay]

Not sure if I should be worried about the implications of gambling on the democratic process, or if I should participate.