It's funny to think back on the conventional wisdom going into 2005-06:
New England had won it's third Super Bowl in four years, establishing itself as a Dynasty. 2004-05 had gone so smoothly for the team that they appeared indestructible, which of course brought out a lot of backlash from jealous fans of other teams. NE was suffering from some Defensive losses and had traded away some good players and strength at coach, but unless you were delusional you had to admit they were the favorite to win again.
Indianapolis was the likeliest contender to take the AFC title away from NE. They had been building the team for years, and with a breath-taking 49 TD passes by QB Peyton Manning in '04-'05, they definitely had the tools they needed on offense. The big question was their Defense, and maybe more importantly Peyton Manning's mental ability to beat Tom Brady.
Over in the NFC Philadelphia reined supreme, and there was little reason (other than the twin curses of Madden cover and runner-up in the Super Bowl) that they wouldn't improve. TO was a basket-case but he'd be healthy this year. They had a viable shot at a Super Bowl title. If nothing else they SHOULD continue to dominate the NFC-East, since all three rivals had performed badly the previous year.
Carolina was picked by Sports Illustrated and many in the sports intelligensia to win the Super Bowl. Only a few years from a SB game, the team had steadily improved in every category of play, but had a particularly tough Defense. Only Atlanta could spoil things for them, and Atlanta was considered vulnerable unless Michael Vick could improve his passing game.
Everyone expected great things from Minnesota, after all they had a real rival to Peyton Manning at QB in Daunte Culpepper and tremendous talent at Receiver. Defense might be shaky but in the weak NFC-North they should have had no problem making the playoffs, and from there who knows?
Pittsburgh had exceeded everyone's expectations in '04 making it to the AFC championship game with a rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger. He was certainly due for a sophomore slump. While Cowher was acknowledged as a great coach the thinking was he did not yet have his Super Bowl team.
Baltimore's ultra-tough Defense had a lot of pundits seeing them as real Super Bowl contenders. After all, Defense wins games and the Ravens had suffered injuries that prevented them from realizing their potential in '04. (The Madden curse!) Maybe Kyle Boller and newly released Jamal Lewis would be potent enough to get Baltimore on the board and then the D could keep their opponents from scoring, and that would be enough to win the Div and make a SB run.
Seattle had it's time as sports intelligensia favorite in '04 and had dissapointed. Hasselback's embarrassing '03 playoff boast, the receiver's dropped passes, three losses to the declining St. Louis Rams -- all of it added up to a team that was not mentally capable of winning. Borderline even to make the playoffs, where they would quickly lose.
Atlanta's Michael Vick was amazing to watch and 2004-05 had been an incredible year for them, but were they a one-trick pony? How long before teams figured out how to break down their game?
The second half of Buffalo's '04-05 season was very impressive and they looked primed to make a run for the playoffs. One of the great hopes for NE Pats-haters.
Same goes for New Orleans, although to a lesser degree. They looked ready to make the playoffs.
The New York Jets were another team with good buzz. Chad Pennington's arm was finally healthy -- they had done well the previous year. Maybe this time it would work out for them.
The much-hyped Randy Moss-Kerry Collins team-up was expected to bring a lot more TD passes to Oakland. Maybe they would be competitive.
San Diego had LT, Gates and a decent QB in Drew Brees. Certainly they had a real shot at winning the AFC-West.
KC was a bit under the radar at the start of the season -- they hadn't done great in '04-05 following a pretty good season in '03-04. Some very talented players, especially on offense, but not necessarily a playoff team.
Same goes double for Denver, who was totally under the radar at the start of the season. Everyone forgot how good they were only a few years prior. Maybe it's that no one took Jake Plummer seriously as a QB, and his inconsistency was shared by their WRs and others.
Dallas, Washington and especially the New York Giants were all dismissed as weak-average teams. Re-building, not yet good enough to seriously compete with Philly.
Everyone knew that the St. Louis Rams were declining, but assumed they had some game left. Everyone kenew that Houston was going to be a punching bag. And that San Francisco was going to need years to fix it's fundamentals. And that Cleveland would too.
Arizona got some props for having put together an okay offense. Some were saying they could potentially beat out Seattle and even St. Louis to win the NFC-West.
Chicago's strong Defense was acknowledged but no one knew how unstoppable it would be. Of course offensicvely they had nothing going on, so no worries for Minnesota...
Oh except for maybe Green Bay, who were certainly going to be competitive with a strong proven offense. Brett Favre, Javon Walker, Ahman Green... GB would give Minnesota headaches and maybe win the NFC-North.
Detroit's "Joey Harrington experiment" was in full swing. Could they go all the way?
Miami could do a lot better if only Ricky Williams got back into the game. At least avoid a really abyssmal season.
Jacksonville would be good but not great, rivalling Indy but not beating it. Tennessee could be good but not great -- sort of a lesser Baltimore.
Cincinnati and Tampa Bay were TOTALLY under everyone's radar.