Rifling > steel in most cases for liberalism because of drafting. The 1 pop --> 1 rifle conversion is one of the most efficient conversions of a pop in the game (of course it comes with a stiff
penalty). If you can nab the GM from economics on the way to liberalism, then steel may be a more attractive option.
Rifles are obviously an excellent unit to draft. However the mortality rate on the rifles is high against established cities unless you are throwing in a decent amount of suicide cats. Those are lost hammers. However, I have found when I attack with CR2 Cannons (which are fairly easy to get from upgraded cats built in mass before Steel), my mortality rate is extremely low. Even against large stacks, it is rare for me to lose 2 cannons. And once a few of my cannons get up to CR3, it is rare to lose even 2. Cleanup is trivial for the non-siege units since enemies are down to 20% of max (and makes easy xp for Maces you will upgrade to rifles later). It's horrible luck to drop even a single non-siege unit.
It also seems like (at least where liberalism is concerned), it is easier to get Steel than Rifling. The last 3 Emperor games, I have had no problem grabbing Steel thanks to the fact that Chemistry is on the GS bulb list. If you settle for Replaceable Parts, Printing Press, or Nationalism, it is a pretty big beaker loss as opposed to Steel.
Even without Liberalism taken into account, it seems that the rifle route is more expensive. To work, it requires you to pick up Nationalism which is a relatively expensive tech. It also requires Printing Press and Replaceable Parts (which requires Banking and Guilds). All of them are solid techs, but they seem more expensive than the Steel Prereqs of Chemistry and Engineering (which are certainly useful as well).
Drafting most effectively requires a *major* food city, the infrastructure in place for the Globe (6 theatres already built at the expense of other production), and the time necessary to draft units (10+ turns). It certainly works well, but there is something nice about getting the Globe after a major Steel conquest. Theatres are pretty solid addition to many captured cities (instead of building them where they may not be needed in your established cities), you potentially have a better Globe site in a captured capital, and you have more cities to leverage Nationhood. Nationhood seems to gain a more significant advantage over Bureaucracy when you have more cities to draft from.
In my experience (which is surely limited compared to many of you here), all of this results in a much longer gap between when I can successfully war with Steel and when I can successfully war with Rifles. And there is nothing that really stops you from drafting Muskets during the Steel era (even if it isn't ideal).
Is there something I am missing though? Actually, I'll move this to a thread of its own, since it is kind off topic in this one.
