Espionage Mafia - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Yakostovian]

I presently doubt today is LYLO. 3 scum in a 10 playerbase is a little brutal for town unless town is swimming in powerroles.
Johanna and Topsecret being basically vanilla and General being almost vanilla tells me the latter is unlikely.

FOS: Tak

 

[Yakostovian]

Also, FOS Ryast.
You came to the LYLO conclusion pretty fast. TMI maybe?

 

[AvatarKhepri]

Stupid explanation or not, Takhisis has just admitted to visiting Joan on the night he was killed. There are only seven of us in the game right now, so either he was unlucky enough to be visiting him the same night that someone else was, or he's the guilty party.

This is a good point. Vote: Takhisis

@AvatarKhepri
If Tak is town, then it was a waste right? If not, well-played.

I don't consider it that wasteful.

But there’s exactly that though - there was only 8 people in the game last night, and him visiting Johanna is as likely as anyone else.

I don’t really know why mafia would decide to kill Johanna (maybe trying to get around protections?) so that’s probably against him, but there were maybe 5-6 targets mafia could have gone for.

I just don’t like lynching a potential PR on what could be LYLO.

Let's ignore for a moment why you seem to think we're already at LYLO - even though, as Yak pointed out, that's pretty weird. Let's also ignore how you've been pretty defensive of Takhisis today - well, ignore it for now, it may well be pretty relevant tomorrow depending on how Takhisis flips. Let's also ignore that if both Arakhor and Takhisis are telling the truth, that means that three separate power roles - a Watcher, a Thief, and a Wolf of some kind - all visited Johanna on the same night, which is a giant coincidence that would just happen to leave Takhisis looking guilty but actually being innocent. Let's ignore that suspicious stuff and instead ask a question: why do you think we should ignore the watcher claim?

Right now we essentially have two players claiming town-aligned power roles - Arakhor as a Watcher of some kind, and Takhisis as a thief, and Arakhor revealed themselves because they claim they saw Takhisis visit Jo last night (the night Jo died). Regardless of how you feel about Arakhor or Takhisis this game, doing anything with today's lynch other than testing the claim is ludicrous. At this point, we're left with two choices: we can kill Arakhor to see if they're really a watcher (instead of having them maybe around to Watch tonight), or we can lynch Takhisis to see if they're really a town-aligned thief (instead of having them maybe around to...steal our night powers? Why is this a thing we want even if they're town-aligned?). The alternative to either of these is "ignore the claimed-watcher who was watching the person who got murdered last night".

In my mind, the idea that both of them are telling the truth and Johanna was randomly visited by three of the other eight players in the game on the same night is incredibly unlikely, bordering on absurd odds. More likely, far more likely, is that one of them is lying - either Takhisis got caught and is trying to weasel out by claiming a town power role, or Arakhor is faking a watcher-claim to take out a highly active townie. Which of these is more likely, I'm not sure, but from here we can see how results will inform further actions: if we kill Arakhor and they're a watcher, then tomorrow we kill Takhisis, but if we kill Arakhor and they're a wolf, then tomorrow we have nothing new to go on really; meanwhile, if we kill Takhisis and they're a townie thief, tomorrow we kill Arakhor, while if we kill Takhisis and they're a wolf, we start investigating you for coming to bat for them today. One of these targets gives us new information to go on tomorrow regardless of their alignment, while the other only gives us information to go on if they're innocent and we shouldn't have killed them. That seems like a pretty good reason to kill the one instead of the other, if you ask me.

But maybe you've got a solid argument to the contrary?

 

[Ryast]

Also, FOS Ryast.
You came to the LYLO conclusion pretty fast. TMI maybe?

I said today could be lylo because I don’t know how much mafia/town is common here. I just played a game with 5 mafia/10 villagers/1 neutral and I’m used to games with a 1:3 ratio, so I don’t really know what the standard is here and it could flip either way.

Just to try confirm though, @pzelda would we be notified if the game reaches lylo?

Let's ignore for a moment why you seem to think we're already at LYLO - even though, as Yak pointed out, that's pretty weird. Let's also ignore how you've been pretty defensive of Takhisis today - well, ignore it for now, it may well be pretty relevant tomorrow depending on how Takhisis flips. Let's also ignore that if both Arakhor and Takhisis are telling the truth, that means that three separate power roles - a Watcher, a Thief, and a Wolf of some kind - all visited Johanna on the same night, which is a giant coincidence that would just happen to leave Takhisis looking guilty but actually being innocent. Let's ignore that suspicious stuff and instead ask a question: why do you think we should ignore the watcher claim?

Right now we essentially have two players claiming town-aligned power roles - Arakhor as a Watcher of some kind, and Takhisis as a thief, and Arakhor revealed themselves because they claim they saw Takhisis visit Jo last night (the night Jo died). Regardless of how you feel about Arakhor or Takhisis this game, doing anything with today's lynch other than testing the claim is ludicrous. At this point, we're left with two choices: we can kill Arakhor to see if they're really a watcher (instead of having them maybe around to Watch tonight), or we can lynch Takhisis to see if they're really a town-aligned thief (instead of having them maybe around to...steal our night powers? Why is this a thing we want even if they're town-aligned?). The alternative to either of these is "ignore the claimed-watcher who was watching the person who got murdered last night".

In my mind, the idea that both of them are telling the truth and Johanna was randomly visited by three of the other eight players in the game on the same night is incredibly unlikely, bordering on absurd odds. More likely, far more likely, is that one of them is lying - either Takhisis got caught and is trying to weasel out by claiming a town power role, or Arakhor is faking a watcher-claim to take out a highly active townie. Which of these is more likely, I'm not sure, but from here we can see how results will inform further actions: if we kill Arakhor and they're a watcher, then tomorrow we kill Takhisis, but if we kill Arakhor and they're a wolf, then tomorrow we have nothing new to go on really; meanwhile, if we kill Takhisis and they're a townie thief, tomorrow we kill Arakhor, while if we kill Takhisis and they're a wolf, we start investigating you for coming to bat for them today. One of these targets gives us new information to go on tomorrow regardless of their alignment, while the other only gives us information to go on if they're innocent and we shouldn't have killed them. That seems like a pretty good reason to kill the one instead of the other, if you ask me.

I’ve been understanding the claim as tracker, so if I’m wrong then takh becomes much more suspicious.

I don’t want to ignore the tracker/watcher claim, but I don’t think either player is scum.

The main reason I’m inclined to believe takh is because nobody has claimed another flavour message like you got yesterday. That would make sense if he targeted Johanna.

And if he IS mafia, he’s a mafia PR of some kind. Mafia wouldn’t send a PR to do the kill.

FoS on you for pushing this TvW side so much. I don’t think it makes sense.

 

[AvatarKhepri]

The main reason I’m inclined to believe takh is because nobody has claimed another flavour message like you got yesterday. That would make sense if he targeted Johanna.

It would also make sense if the real thief was blocked, or the target is staying silent for some reason, such as not wanting to tip their own hand as a power role. or maybe they're staying silent, for example, because they're inactive...but hey it's not like there's players in danger of being replaced due to inactivity OH WAIT.

I might replace Manasi, if she doesn't post in next 24 hours.

And if he IS mafia, he’s a mafia PR of some kind. Mafia wouldn’t send a PR to do the kill.

if Tak is mafia, the power role claim could be a complete lie and he's just a regular wolf with no special powers. If Tak is telling the truth, it's really convenient for them that another villager who was previously so inactive has come out of the woodworks to hardcore go to bat for them.

FoS on you for pushing this TvW side so much. I don’t think it makes sense.

Oh, and this final note of mine is a solid suggestion regardless of whether we agree or disagree on anything: maybe instead of pointing fingers of suspicious, you can put your money where your mouth is today and actually vote for somebody? Maybe? I dunno, just a thought that if you've got such strong opinions on who definitely isn't mafia, you could actually exercise your power as a villager and cast your vote in a way that makes it harder for them to hang. Just an idea, but you don't have to if you don't want to.

 

[Ryast]

It would also make sense if the real thief was blocked, or the target is staying silent for some reason, such as not wanting to tip their own hand as a power role. or maybe they're staying silent, for example, because they're inactive...but hey it's not like there's players in danger of being replaced due to inactivity OH WAIT.

if Tak is mafia, the power role claim could be a complete lie and he's just a regular wolf with no special powers. If Tak is telling the truth, it's really convenient for them that another villager who was previously so inactive has come out of the woodworks to hardcore go to bat for them

I think the only thing that makes sense is that the thief is either Manasi or Tak, anyone else would have claimed by now or will claim if we decide not to lynch tak. And tak would not risk being counter claimed, because he wouldn’t know that Manasi is the thief unless mafia have an investigative ON TOP of tak himself. Even then, it’s risky and we would get an answer as soon as Manasi gets replaced.

I don’t think tak would have claimed the thief role with how big of a risk it is. And I think that night actions make sense with tak’s claim.

Oh, and this final note of mine is a solid suggestion regardless of whether we agree or disagree on anything: maybe instead of pointing fingers of suspicious, you can put your money where your mouth is today and actually vote for somebody? Maybe? I dunno, just a thought that if you've got such strong opinions on who definitely isn't mafia, you could actually exercise your power as a villager and cast your vote in a way that makes it harder for them to hang. Just an idea, but you don't have to if you don't want to.

Yeah, fair enough.
Vote: AvatarKhepri

You’re pushing this way too hard, and I feel like that comes from trying to force a mislynch.

 

[pzelda]

Just to try confirm though, @pzelda would we be notified if the game reaches lylo?

Yes.

Countdown

Votecount
Takhisis 1: AvatarKhepri
AvatarKhepri 1: Ryast

 

[Yakostovian]

I think the only thing that makes sense is that the thief is either Manasi or Tak, anyone else would have claimed by now or will claim if we decide not to lynch tak. And tak would not risk being counter claimed, because he wouldn’t know that Manasi is the thief unless mafia have an investigative ON TOP of tak himself. Even then, it’s risky and we would get an answer as soon as Manasi gets replaced.

I don’t think tak would have claimed the thief role with how big of a risk it is. And I think that night actions make sense with tak’s claim.



Yeah, fair enough.
Vote: AvatarKhepri

You’re pushing this way too hard, and I feel like that comes from trying to force a mislynch.

And while you have an obvious reason to be suspicious of Tak, you are voting for his largest lynch proponent. That strikes me as shady.

FOS still on Tak.
VOTE: Ryast

 

[Ryast]

Yes.

Countdown

Votecount
Takhisis 1: AvatarKhepri
AvatarKhepri 1: Ryast

Sweet, thanks. My bad.

And while you have an obvious reason to be suspicious of Tak, you are voting for his largest lynch proponent. That strikes me as shady.

FOS still on Tak.
VOTE: Ryast

The only reason I have to be suspicious about him is that he visited Johanna. He’s explained it well enough, and it fits with everything we know about the game.

I’m voting for the guy going for his lynch because I think he’s stuck on it where he shouldn’t be, and it looks like mafia trying to set up a mislynch.

 

[AvatarKhepri]

When somebody calls out somebody else for visiting the murder victim the night of their murder, and that person admits to being there, we test the goddamn claim. Not testing the claim is idiotic, and no sweet-talking you pull in Tak's defense is gonna change my mind about that.

It's also extremely interesting to me that where Tak was incredibly active the first couple days, today they made just a couple posts establishing their own cover story and then jumped into the background to let you defend them.

 

[Ryast]

When somebody calls out somebody else for visiting the murder victim the night of their murder, and that person admits to being there, we test the goddamn claim. Not testing the claim is idiotic, and no sweet-talking you pull in Tak's defense is gonna change my mind about that.

It's also extremely interesting to me that where Tak was incredibly active the first couple days, today they made just a couple posts establishing their own cover story and then jumped into the background to let you defend them.

I disagree with testing the claim, because it makes sense with everything that’s happened. I think we’re just going in circles now though, so I’ll stop arguing that.

Didn’t tak say he can’t be online until a certain time?

 

[Takhisis]

That's because I was away into RL in a different timezone, Mr. Avatar.

So, Ryast: what's with the LYLO claim?

Khepri: I am supposed to be able to steal not a townie's powers but anybody's powers. The problem is that I don't get to know anything about the player (alignment, role, etc.) other than what I steal, if I steal.

I'd vote for Manasi for lurking the game out but apparently that will solve itself.

 

[Ryast]

That's because I was away into RL in a different timezone, Mr. Avatar.

So, Ryast: what's with the LYLO claim?

Khepri: I am supposed to be able to steal not a townie's powers but anybody's powers. The problem is that I don't get to know anything about the player (alignment, role, etc.) other than what I steal, if I steal.

I'd vote for Manasi for lurking the game out but apparently that will solve itself.

I feel like people are misinterpreting what I said about lylo

I said it might be lylo, not that it is. I wasn’t sure. Pzelda confirmed that it isn’t, so it’s not a case of TMI.

Also, welcome

 

[AvatarKhepri]

Khepri: I am supposed to be able to steal not a townie's powers but anybody's powers. The problem is that I don't get to know anything about the player (alignment, role, etc.) other than what I steal, if I steal.

Theoretically useful at the start of the game, but even if you're telling the truth and are town-aligned (both of which I doubt), there's just not enough time left in the game for you to snipe a useful ability and then use it against the wolves. If we act on the assumption that you're telling the truth and you're town...if you die today/tonight, you can't do anything to help with powers. If you live through the night, you'll maybe have sniped a useful ability from one of the remaining players, but then we're at tomorrow with 5 remaining players and probably in LYLO (unless this is a one-wolf game, which seems really weird to me). Assuming town successfully lynches a wolf and the game doesn't immediately end, it's now going into tomorrow night with three townies and one wolf; as long as you make it through the night, your night action will go through and your theoretically-sniped power will theoretically stymie the wolf instead of one of the other two villagers.

A theoretical power usage that has a 2/3 chance of being stolen from another townie instead of an enemy wolf, that can only occur two nights from now, after a likely LYLO situation...it's not exactly a giant incentive to keep you around or protected.

I'd vote for Manasi for lurking the game out but apparently that will solve itself.

I'd offer a slight caveat about how about-to-auto-die-anyway players are good targets for the lynch of town is unsure of who to lynch and doesn't wanna risk losing somebody helpful, but I've yet to be in a situation where town had no better idea of who to lynch than somebody who was about to die anyway, including this game, so that caveat doesn't really matter.

 

[Takhisis]

I was/am catching up with the thread.

So AvatarKhepri, you want to ‘test the claim’, well, I… kinda don't, for obvious reasons. Arakhor hinted that he'd tracked me or watched me or otherwise detected me at JK's place last night. Sure, and I copped to it and tried to explain it as best I could.
This game has weird roles, sure, but I've never seen a killer who could also detect anybody else who targetted their victim, or else this would give away any protectors or redirectors. So Arakhor's very probably not the killer.

So I'd rather link outside me-Arakhor.

Yako? Quiet, doesn't contribute much.
Ryast? I'm sympathetic for those who vote my voters, but that's it. At least the possible TMI has been cleared up?
Manasi? Well, that slot will solve itself, as I said.
You? It'd be OMGUS.
Rakkoon? Well, he was suspicious last phase, wasn't he?



And also there's no hint that there might be delayed kills, because then we would not have had a kill on N1.

I said it might be lylo, not that it is. I wasn’t sure. Pzelda confirmed that it isn’t, so it’s not a case of TMI.

Well, don't worry, I didn't get to steal anything from JohannaK last night because…

You're an ordinary citizen. You build roads and railroads and usually mind your own business. You have no special abilities.

 

[Takhisis]

Theoretically useful at the start of the game, but even if you're telling the truth and are town-aligned (both of which I doubt), there's just not enough time left in the game for you to snipe a useful ability and then use it against the wolves. If we act on the assumption that you're telling the truth and you're town...if you die today/tonight, you can't do anything to help with powers. If you live through the night, you'll maybe have sniped a useful ability from one of the remaining players, but then we're at tomorrow with 5 remaining players and probably in LYLO (unless this is a one-wolf game, which seems really weird to me). Assuming town successfully lynches a wolf and the game doesn't immediately end, it's now going into tomorrow night with three townies and one wolf; as long as you make it through the night, your night action will go through and your theoretically-sniped power will theoretically stymie the wolf instead of one of the other two villagers.

A theoretical power usage that has a 2/3 chance of being stolen from another townie instead of an enemy wolf, that can only occur two nights from now, after a likely LYLO situation...it's not exactly a giant incentive to keep you around or protected.

I'll agree that it's not that useful an ability (perhaps if I had stolen from GenMarshall his block on townie information might have been lifted temporarily?) but I'll still say that it's killing a potential power role.

It's also an indirect way of detecting whether somebody is using an ability. So far I know that you didn't do the N1 kill and (well, obviously) JK didn't do the N2 kill.


Well, see below, because I got engaged in Off-Topic/Politics and got a bit lost here, but:

I'd offer a slight caveat about how about-to-auto-die-anyway players are good targets for the lynch of town is unsure of who to lynch and doesn't wanna risk losing somebody helpful, but I've yet to be in a situation where town had no better idea of who to lynch than somebody who was about to die anyway, including this game, so that caveat doesn't really matter.

Well, exactly. I am unsure of whom to lynch, I don't want to risk losing somebody helpful (Arakhor must have some role, I know I have one) so by the process of elimination it's one of Yako (tried to solve, called Ryast out on the LYLO thing I see), Ryast (is posting, he can always hang himself with his own rope) or vote: Rakkoon, who, after being the top lynch suspect yesterday, has had a grand total of 1 post.

(or obviously you, ‘vanilla’? but you're voting for me and for once I don't want to play with the ‘automatically voting everyone who votes for me’ gimmick, 'cos I'm not posting from cellphones so it loses its edge and there's too few of us for it to be a harmless joke)

 

[AvatarKhepri]

It's also an indirect way of detecting whether somebody is using an ability. So far I know that you didn't do the N1 kill and (well, obviously) JK didn't do the N2 kill.

On the one hand, I'm always leery about depending on something like this as a pseudo-seer ability, just cuz I've been in enough games with baners and alphas. On the other hand, those are a lot less likely to be around in a game this small...I dunno. Makes me nervous when anybody says I'm cleared.

Well, see below, because I got engaged in Off-Topic/Politics and got a bit lost here, but:

Well, exactly. I am unsure of whom to lynch, I don't want to risk losing somebody helpful (Arakhor must have some role, I know I have one) so by the process of elimination it's one of Yako (tried to solve, called Ryast out on the LYLO thing I see), Ryast (is posting, he can always hang himself with his own rope) or vote: Rakkoon, who, after being the top lynch suspect yesterday, has had a grand total of 1 post.

(or obviously you, ‘vanilla’? but you're voting for me and for once I don't want to play with the ‘automatically voting everyone who votes for me’ gimmick, 'cos I'm not posting from cellphones so it loses its edge and there's too few of us for it to be a harmless joke)

Commit to the bit. At least then we'd have an actual wagon.

 

[Takhisis]

I'm not saying you're cleared, I'm saying that I'm sure you didn't do the N1 kill. Or, more accurately, that I didn't steal any abilities from you on N1. Which is why I was pestering you about the vote; I was thinking that maybe I'd become a double-voter for a day or something, but I asked for clarification and it's only for night abilities. Active abilities, I think, so I'm not sure how it'd've interacted with passive ones such as GenMarshall's.

Commit to what bit? I am voting Rakkoon, as you see.

 

[Takhisis]

I'm not saying you're cleared, I'm saying that I'm sure you didn't do the N1 kill. Or, more accurately, that I didn't steal any abilities from you on N1. Which is why I was pestering you about the vote; I was thinking that maybe I'd become a double-voter for a day or something, but I asked for clarification and it's only for night abilities. Active abilities, I think, so I'm not sure how it'd've interacted with passive ones such as GenMarshall's.

Commit to what bit? I am voting Rakkoon, as you see.

 

[Takhisis]

Well derpalerp freaking Xenforo and its double-posts.