Espionage Mafia - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Arakhor]

I never said anything about being a Watcher. I simply asked Takhisis where he was last night and he said he was visiting JohannaK, who also happened to die last night. If I was a Watcher who happened to visit JohannaK on the same night that Takhisis and his murderer visited him, clearly my comment about how it's unfortunate for Takhisis that he visited the dead man last night would also apply to me. Strangely enough, I'm not in the habit of trying to getting myself killed.

 

[Takhisis]

If I was a Watcher who happened to visit JohannaK on the same night that Takhisis and his murderer visited him, clearly my comment about how it's unfortunate for Takhisis that he visited the dead man last night would also apply to me.

I did say something last page about not believing that you could be a simultaneous killer-watcher/killer-tracker/other combination.

What do you propose we do then, Mr. totally-not-a-Watcher?

 

[AvatarKhepri]

Additional point against Takhisis: double-posting is the devil's hoagie.

 

[Arakhor]

Well, of course I'm not an anything/anything else. That would require me to be able to do two things at night, which would be unprecedented.

Given the bizarre powers already displayed, I am much less inclined to call your claimed power out as obvious nonsense. However, I'm routinely bad at guessing who I think are mafia or not, so take that with a pinch of salt.

Vote: Manasi is still lurking horribly. She's only made one post today, to explain why she wasn't active earlier. That's as bad as Gen. Marshall and we lynched him because of it.

 

[Yakostovian]

Additional point against Takhisis: double-posting is the devil's hoagie.

I'm assuming you are joking, but if not, that theory is bunk.

Top suspect: Ryast, followed closely by Takhisis.
Arakhor looks like solid town, lock clear if Takhisis flips scum. If Tak flips town, Arakhor goes to top scum.
Avatar is my #2 town.
Manasi flipping today resolves nothing but that slot: put her off for at least a day.
Rakkoon I want to see more out of. Seems to be lurking just a little less than Manasi.

 

[Takhisis]

Additional point against Takhisis: double-posting is the devil's hoagie.

You post from a cellphone.

Vote: Manasi is still lurking horribly. She's only made one post today, to explain why she wasn't active earlier. That's as bad as Gen. Marshall and we lynched him because of it.

Erm, Manasi's getting autokilled by the GM.

 

[Takhisis]

Yako, would you mind 'splainin' why Ryast's a suspect?

 

[Yakostovian]

Day 1
Is voting for both our dead townies. Not neccesarily scum indicative, but voting record looks bad for now.

Asks a question of me that seems pointless, and doesn't seem all that interested in the answer. Just kinda responds with a "oh, really?" type answer.

Tinfoil: Johanna is voting for Ryast on D1, so maybe her death was an OMGUS response an entire night later.

Day 2
Opens the day with "weird role" commentary. Immediately speculated about the existence of a watcher/tracker, which it now seems Arakhor is.

Motive intially looks good questioning Rakkoon about the vote to lynch AvatarK, but the question is super vague, and doesn't seem to follow up or indicate he cares about the answers.

Comments regarding JohannaK are not neccesarily alignment indicative, but Ryast's comment also doesn't further things along. I'm currently theorizing that it is to indicate paying attention to this game. Could be a scum-tell. Not sure.

He asks about Tak's comment regarding a supposed contradiction, but discussion about Rakkoon seems to go nowhere, but Ryast just kinda "forgets" what is going on. It looks like he asked a question to set Rakkoon up for a town mistrust of him (likely indicating that this pair are not scum together) but Ryast backs down when town doesn't take the bait he sets up.

When AvatarK says that town might have reasons to vote him, Ryast asks AvatarK a question about what those migh be, but also doesn't seem invested in the answer yet again. Avatar's reply to the question just gets a "you've got real reasons, so that's good" without pressing Avatar on them or suspecting Avatar for them.

Day 3
Opening post is responding to Tak. This looks kinda buddy-buddy to me, talking to an outed buddy. When he says he beleives Tak's response, it looks even more like he's talking to an outed buddy. His next post is defending Tak's answer with some stretches of reasoning that don't quite add up. I don't see a town motive for defending someone that was caught visiting the player that was nightkilled unless he was really confused. Additionally, I don't know if I've ever heard of a mafia tracker/watcher/voyuer power, so Arakhor is all but confirmed town in my book, regardless of Tak's flip.

The LYLO comment pinged me, but it's NAI since the narrator admitted to alerting us to LYLO (and presumably MYLO)

Ryast then decides to vote for AvatarK, the very target he declined to vote for the prior day after admitting that Avatar had a reason for a scum case against him. Plus town points to AvatarK if Ryast flips scum.

Is pretty adamant about not testing the Tak claim. Which looks like an even better case of Tak/Ryast buddy-buddy to me.

Ryast's next post about LYLO is more NAI. Looks a tad defensive otherwise.

Currently leaning that ryast is scummier than Tak, but they are my highest suspects as a team.

 

[Ryast]

Day 1
Is voting for both our dead townies. Not neccesarily scum indicative, but voting record looks bad for now.

Asks a question of me that seems pointless, and doesn't seem all that interested in the answer. Just kinda responds with a "oh, really?" type answer.

Tinfoil: Johanna is voting for Ryast on D1, so maybe her death was an OMGUS response an entire night later.

Day 2
Opens the day with "weird role" commentary. Immediately speculated about the existence of a watcher/tracker, which it now seems Arakhor is.

Motive intially looks good questioning Rakkoon about the vote to lynch AvatarK, but the question is super vague, and doesn't seem to follow up or indicate he cares about the answers.

Comments regarding JohannaK are not neccesarily alignment indicative, but Ryast's comment also doesn't further things along. I'm currently theorizing that it is to indicate paying attention to this game. Could be a scum-tell. Not sure.

He asks about Tak's comment regarding a supposed contradiction, but discussion about Rakkoon seems to go nowhere, but Ryast just kinda "forgets" what is going on. It looks like he asked a question to set Rakkoon up for a town mistrust of him (likely indicating that this pair are not scum together) but Ryast backs down when town doesn't take the bait he sets up.

When AvatarK says that town might have reasons to vote him, Ryast asks AvatarK a question about what those migh be, but also doesn't seem invested in the answer yet again. Avatar's reply to the question just gets a "you've got real reasons, so that's good" without pressing Avatar on them or suspecting Avatar for them.

Day 3
Opening post is responding to Tak. This looks kinda buddy-buddy to me, talking to an outed buddy. When he says he beleives Tak's response, it looks even more like he's talking to an outed buddy. His next post is defending Tak's answer with some stretches of reasoning that don't quite add up. I don't see a town motive for defending someone that was caught visiting the player that was nightkilled unless he was really confused. Additionally, I don't know if I've ever heard of a mafia tracker/watcher/voyuer power, so Arakhor is all but confirmed town in my book, regardless of Tak's flip.

The LYLO comment pinged me, but it's NAI since the narrator admitted to alerting us to LYLO (and presumably MYLO)

Ryast then decides to vote for AvatarK, the very target he declined to vote for the prior day after admitting that Avatar had a reason for a scum case against him. Plus town points to AvatarK if Ryast flips scum.

Is pretty adamant about not testing the Tak claim. Which looks like an even better case of Tak/Ryast buddy-buddy to me.

Ryast's next post about LYLO is more NAI. Looks a tad defensive otherwise.

Currently leaning that ryast is scummier than Tak, but they are my highest suspects as a team.

Thanks for putting this together, I’ll try get a response out on this tonight.

 

[Ryast]

Day 1

Is voting for both our dead townies. Not neccesarily scum indicative, but voting record looks bad for now.

That's fair, but keep in mind that the vote on topsecret was just RVS to get people talking. The Johanna vote was serious, though.

Asks a question of me that seems pointless, and doesn't seem all that interested in the answer. Just kinda responds with a "oh, really?" type answer.

This comes up a couple times. A lot of what I tend to do in games is asking questions just to see how people react to them, not really for the answer to the question itself. For example, the question I asked you on D1 was to see if you'd get defensive, maintain your read, etc.

Tinfoil: Johanna is voting for Ryast on D1, so maybe her death was an OMGUS response an entire night later.

I mean, their vote was just self-preservation looking back, so that'd be kinda odd.

Day 2

Opens the day with "weird role" commentary. Immediately speculated about the existence of a watcher/tracker, which it now seems Arakhor is.

Motive intially looks good questioning Rakkoon about the vote to lynch AvatarK, but the question is super vague, and doesn't seem to follow up or indicate he cares about the answers.

Is the first part just for completion in the ISO? not super sure what the point you're trying to make there is.

For the second bit, I didn't really get much of a response there. The question ended up being kinda useless because Rakkoon voted the wrong person, apparently.

Comments regarding JohannaK are not neccesarily alignment indicative, but Ryast's comment also doesn't further things along. I'm currently theorizing that it is to indicate paying attention to this game. Could be a scum-tell. Not sure.

yeaah I'll admit that I haven't really gotten much accomplished this game. Most of the discussion I've been an active part in was today with takh, which isn't ideal. I'm used to more posts to analyze.

He asks about Tak's comment regarding a supposed contradiction, but discussion about Rakkoon seems to go nowhere, but Ryast just kinda "forgets" what is going on. It looks like he asked a question to set Rakkoon up for a town mistrust of him (likely indicating that this pair are not scum together) but Ryast backs down when town doesn't take the bait he sets up.

I forgot how Rakkoon contradicted himself, the next few posts didn't directly answer me but did remind me.
It'd be a bit weird to dangle bait and then turn around and actively go against the wagon forming on him.

When AvatarK says that town might have reasons to vote him, Ryast asks AvatarK a question about what those migh be, but also doesn't seem invested in the answer yet again. Avatar's reply to the question just gets a "you've got real reasons, so that's good" without pressing Avatar on them or suspecting Avatar for them.

Yeah, this is another of those bait dangling questions. Like I said in response to him, the fact that he had reasons for himself being scummy was good, and if he didn't I'd probably have tried a push to lynch him.

Day 3Opening post is responding to Tak. This looks kinda buddy-buddy to me, talking to an outed buddy. When he says he beleives Tak's response, it looks even more like he's talking to an outed buddy. His next post is defending Tak's answer with some stretches of reasoning that don't quite add up. I don't see a town motive for defending someone that was caught visiting the player that was nightkilled unless he was really confused. Additionally, I don't know if I've ever heard of a mafia tracker/watcher/voyuer power, so Arakhor is all but confirmed town in my book, regardless of Tak's flip.

Yeah I have been really defensive of takh, so if he flips scum I'd absolutely be suspicious. I just think the reasons against him being mafia outweigh the reasons for it.
I've got the same look on Arakhor, he's pretty much confirmed.

Ryast then decides to vote for AvatarK, the very target he declined to vote for the prior day after admitting that Avatar had a reason for a scum case against him. Plus town points to AvatarK if Ryast flips scum.

Reads change. The excessive push on takh outweighs the light town read I had for him because of his activity and response to my question.

Is pretty adamant about not testing the Tak claim. Which looks like an even better case of Tak/Ryast buddy-buddy to me.

I really don't want to lynch town right now

Because Arakhor is basically confirmed regardless of what tak flips, I'm looking at Tak's claim like I would look at any other villager claim, and that means that it isn't a priotity to test it.

 

[pzelda]

Countdown

Votecount
Takhisis 1: AvatarKhepri
AvatarKhepri 1: Ryast
Ryast 1: Yakostavian
Rakkoon 1: Takhisis
Manasi 1: Arakhor

 

[Rakkoon]

Hmm, I'm just not smart enough for these games. Everyone is a suspect.
Ryast with his Lylo comment but his response is not bad.
Tak has a weird claim but we have seen other weird roles.
Manasi is lurking worse than I.
Yako is analysing a lot but that also happens every time he is a wolf.
Arakhor talks about testing the claim and then votes for a lurker.
...
I want to vote for people that have no votes yet but that would make it too easy for the wolves.
Lets go with vote ryast

 

[Arakhor]

I was attempting to prompt Manasi into voting, but sadly that just helped the daft situation where almost everyone is voting for everyone else. Unvote.

 

[AvatarKhepri]

Unvote
Vote: Ryast

 

[Ryast]

Huh, ok. Those votes kinda came out of nowhere.

I'm going to put together an argument for why we should lynch Avatar. If I'm still the leading wagon in a few hours, I'll claim.

Current guess is an Avatar/Rakkoon scum team, but the read on Rakkoon is a bit less established and might just be that the post he votes me feels weird/hedgey and it seems off that the only wagon he doesn't mention there is avatar's.

 

[AvatarKhepri]

Huh, ok. Those votes kinda came out of nowhere.

I'm going to put together an argument for why we should lynch Avatar. If I'm still the leading wagon in a few hours, I'll claim.

Current guess is an Avatar/Rakkoon scum team, but the read on Rakkoon is a bit less established and might just be that the post he votes me feels weird/hedgey and it seems off that the only wagon he doesn't mention there is avatar's.

I'm taking my own advice on not splitting the vote too much in a game where ties are determined randomly. I still think Tak looks scummier than you, and want to test them in the fire, but if they'd flip (like I think they would), you'd be next. Doing it in reverse order is acceptable albeit not preferable, if only because Tak's ties to you are weaker than your ties to Tak (if that makes any sense).

 

[Ryast]

Formatting is probably awful for this, sorry. Wrote it in docs to make sure I didn't lose it and that spaces it weirdly

So, before I start, I'm going to again lay out all the reasons I believe Tahkisis.

1. His claim fits with what avatar has said, and seems elaborate enough that I don't think it's a fakeclaim.

2. Nobody has counterclaimed and said they were the cause of what happened to Avatar. The only other possibility is that Manasi did it and hasn't said anything, or that a townie is hiding it for some reason even though they could confirm takh being a wolf.

3. There is no way Takh would take the risk of claiming to be the one who did something to avatar, for two reasons: one, it wasn't even confirmed if avatar was joking/baiting discussion or not, and two, the role would be claimed by someone else if it was anyone but manasi.


I personally think these three things are enough to clear him for the most part. That fake claim would be suicidal 99% of the time, and he didn’t hold if back at all and was ready to give it out. Takh is town in my eyes.

This is a good point. Vote: Takhisis




I don't consider it that wasteful.




Let's ignore for a moment why you seem to think we're already at LYLO - even though, as Yak pointed out, that's pretty weird. Let's also ignore how you've been pretty defensive of Takhisis today - well, ignore it for now, it may well be pretty relevant tomorrow depending on how Takhisis flips. Let's also ignore that if both Arakhor and Takhisis are telling the truth, that means that three separate power roles - a Watcher, a Thief, and a Wolf of some kind - all visited Johanna on the same night, which is a giant coincidence that would just happen to leave Takhisis looking guilty but actually being innocent. Let's ignore that suspicious stuff and instead ask a question: why do you think we should ignore the watcher claim?


Right now we essentially have two players claiming town-aligned power roles - Arakhor as a Watcher of some kind, and Takhisis as a thief, and Arakhor revealed themselves because they claim they saw Takhisis visit Jo last night (the night Jo died). Regardless of how you feel about Arakhor or Takhisis this game, doing anything with today's lynch other than testing the claim is ludicrous. At this point, we're left with two choices: we can kill Arakhor to see if they're really a watcher (instead of having them maybe around to Watch tonight), or we can lynch Takhisis to see if they're really a town-aligned thief (instead of having them maybe around to...steal our night powers? Why is this a thing we want even if they're town-aligned?). The alternative to either of these is "ignore the claimed-watcher who was watching the person who got murdered last night".


In my mind, the idea that both of them are telling the truth and Johanna was randomly visited by three of the other eight players in the game on the same night is incredibly unlikely, bordering on absurd odds. More likely, far more likely, is that one of them is lying - either Takhisis got caught and is trying to weasel out by claiming a town power role, or Arakhor is faking a watcher-claim to take out a highly active townie. Which of these is more likely, I'm not sure, but from here we can see how results will inform further actions: if we kill Arakhor and they're a watcher, then tomorrow we kill Takhisis, but if we kill Arakhor and they're a wolf, then tomorrow we have nothing new to go on really; meanwhile, if we kill Takhisis and they're a townie thief, tomorrow we kill Arakhor, while if we kill Takhisis and they're a wolf, we start investigating you for coming to bat for them today. One of these targets gives us new information to go on tomorrow regardless of their alignment, while the other only gives us information to go on if they're innocent and we shouldn't have killed them. That seems like a pretty good reason to kill the one instead of the other, if you ask me.


But maybe you've got a solid argument to the contrary?

First off in this post, I don’t like that Avatar seems to wait for confirmation from Arakhor that the wagon is still worth pushing. He holds back until Arakhor keeps suspicion on takh, and then goes all in? Seems like a pretty dramatic shift for a fairly obvious point.


Then he goes into his reasons for voting takhisis, and why I should do the same.

His reasons mostly end up being that the odds of multiple people visiting johanna is absurd, even though it isn’t really. Johanna was fairly suspicious, and a thief visiting them would be realistic. The kill is less so, but maybe they knew something we didn’t, or just wanted to get through any possible protection.


He then puts takh/Arakhor in a T/W position, even though it really doesn’t have to be that way. If we listen to that, it could set up for two mislynches, Which would win mafia the game. He also starts his “test the claim” debate, which I don’t like. It’s like drowning an accused witch to see if they are one - if they don’t float, then “oh well, we were wrong. Time to kill arakhor”. I don’t really see the reasoning behind testing the claim, and it feels like something to fall back to as reasoning.


Tinfoil: maaaybe called arakhor a watcher instead of tracker on purpose to make the t/w side more pushable?

It would also make sense if the real thief was blocked, or the target is staying silent for some reason, such as not wanting to tip their own hand as a power role. or maybe they're staying silent, for example, because they're inactive...but hey it's not like there's players in danger of being replaced due to inactivity OH WAIT.






if Tak is mafia, the power role claim could be a complete lie and he's just a regular wolf with no special powers. If Tak is telling the truth, it's really convenient for them that another villager who was previously so inactive has come out of the woodworks to hardcore go to bat for them.




Oh, and this final note of mine is a solid suggestion regardless of whether we agree or disagree on anything: maybe instead of pointing fingers of suspicious, you can put your money where your mouth is today and actually vote for somebody? Maybe? I dunno, just a thought that if you've got such strong opinions on who definitely isn't mafia, you could actually exercise your power as a villager and cast your vote in a way that makes it harder for them to hang. Just an idea, but you don't have to if you don't want to.

This is kinda where avatar starts reaching.

For tak to be a regular wolf a few things would have to happen:

1. The actual thief got roleblocked/did not submit an action
   
   
2. The actual thief decided not to claim/was inactive
   
   
3. Tak decided to risk everything by claiming a role he knew existed and could be counterclaimed.
   

When somebody calls out somebody else for visiting the murder victim the night of their murder, and that person admits to being there, we test the goddamn claim. Not testing the claim is idiotic, and no sweet-talking you pull in Tak's defense is gonna change my mind about that.


It's also extremely interesting to me that where Tak was incredibly active the first couple days, today they made just a couple posts establishing their own cover story and then jumped into the background to let you defend them.

Here avatar ignores my points, then falls back to “testing the claim” as his main reason. I’ve already said why the testing the claim reasoning feels scummy.

Theoretically useful at the start of the game, but even if you're telling the truth and are town-aligned (both of which I doubt), there's just not enough time left in the game for you to snipe a useful ability and then use it against the wolves. If we act on the assumption that you're telling the truth and you're town...if you die today/tonight, you can't do anything to help with powers. If you live through the night, you'll maybe have sniped a useful ability from one of the remaining players, but then we're at tomorrow with 5 remaining players and probably in LYLO (unless this is a one-wolf game, which seems really weird to me). Assuming town successfully lynches a wolf and the game doesn't immediately end, it's now going into tomorrow night with three townies and one wolf; as long as you make it through the night, your night action will go through and your theoretically-sniped power will theoretically stymie the wolf instead of one of the other two villagers.


A theoretical power usage that has a 2/3 chance of being stolen from another townie instead of an enemy wolf, that can only occur two nights from now, after a likely LYLO situation...it's not exactly a giant incentive to keep you around or protected.




I'd offer a slight caveat about how about-to-auto-die-anyway players are good targets for the lynch of town is unsure of who to lynch and doesn't wanna risk losing somebody helpful, but I've yet to be in a situation where town had no better idea of who to lynch than somebody who was about to die anyway, including this game, so that caveat doesn't really matter.

Here avatar uses takh’s role being bad as another reason to risk a lynch on him. I’ve been feeling the same thing about his role being bad, so I’ve basically been treating him as a villager - and I wouldn’t lynch a villager because he’s a villager. Takh can always choose not to use his action, but if we kill mafia today, then with two mafia being pretty much the confirmed amount, his action basically becomes a cop if he steals the kill.

On the one hand, I'm always leery about depending on something like this as a pseudo-seer ability, just cuz I've been in enough games with baners and alphas. On the other hand, those are a lot less likely to be around in a game this small...I dunno. Makes me nervous when anybody says I'm cleared.




Commit to the bit. At least then we'd have an actual wagon.

I’m assuming alpha is the same as godfather, not sure what baner is - wouldn’t takh’s role bypass that, since it steals an action instead?



So yeah, most of my reasons for wanting an Avatar lynch boil down to the fact that I think he’s reaching way too hard for a lynch on tak, when to me tak seems fairly confirmed. He’s kinda avoided talking about the reasons I have for why tak isn’t scum, so I’d like to see an actual response to each of the reasons I put up at the top. It also doesn’t help that with PoE, scum could be Yako, Rakk, Avatar, or Manasi, and he’s the one of those four who has really stuck out to me the most.

We also get info: If avatar is town, it reflects badly on me and tak. If avatar is scum, it means that the scumteam probably is in that list of Yako, Rakk, Avatar, or Manasi, and I'd predict it probably being Rakk out of those.

My vote's already on Avatar, and I'm hoping I get others to join me as well.

 

[Ryast]

I’m assuming alpha is the same as godfather, not sure what baner is - wouldn’t takh’s role bypass that, since it steals an action instead?

nevermind for this, baner is doctor, right? Not sure why that matters

 

[Manasi]

Hi hi hihihi hello. Work got really horsehockey after I made that post again. Alas I'm on my couch for the rest of the day. Is there anything people would like me to look at? Otherwise I'm going to start goign over the last two wagons and seeing if there's anything that stands out.

 

[Ryast]

Hi hi hihihi hello. Work got really ****** after I made that post again. Alas I'm on my couch for the rest of the day. Is there anything people would like me to look at? Otherwise I'm going to start goign over the last two wagons and seeing if there's anything that stands out.

Oh hey! Yeah, probably just go over the thread, would be good to have you caught up.