First country to break up in the next decade?

Mise said:
But unlike Ireland, Scotland is deeply left-wing, and wants to have its cake and eat it too, by continuing to fund its huge welfare state, free university education, etc.
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Eh Ireland has free university education and one of the most generous social welfare systems in the EU.
 
really said:
Eh Ireland has free university education and one of the most generous social welfare systems in the EU.
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I didn't know that. I don't regard it as "left wing" though. Not in the traditional sense. Maybe it's "left wing" in the same way that the current Labour gov't is?
 
Winner said:
I am trying to follow the situation in Belgium and the more I learn the more it looks like Czechoslovakia before the breakup. Elections here were the catalyzer of the breakup as well. Basically, Czechs and Slovaks elected parties which were required to form a coalition (because our political system was really insane by that time) - but it was impossible because of their totally opposing views on just about everything. Here too we had a talks about confederations and what now, but in the end the peaceful "divorce" was the least bad alternative.
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Many comparisons between our country and Czechoslavakia have been made in the press. the conclusions were usually that there are indeed a lot of similarities, but at the same time also some big differences. I don't remember all the details, but the first one was the situation of Brussels, which is very complicated. Another one was the fact that Czechoslovakia was a relatively young nation (1918-1993 = 75 years), and they didn't really have much of a joint history before that. Belgium exists already 178 years and most of the country was already under a single ruler for much longer.

But there is not much in common any more between the two regions:
- separate political parties
- separate television station, radio stations, newspapers, ...
- I think all sports associations have been split in regional associations, with only a limited federal association to represent the country internationally
- everything related to culture and education have been regionalised
- even the Red Cross has been split in a Flemish and a Walloon wing
- there used to be a strong group of companies and financial institutions that were really "Belgian", but most of them are gone now or have been taken over by foreign companies: Fina was taken over by Total, Sabena went bankrupt, its successor Brussels Airlines will be taken over by Lufthansa, Electrabel is part of Suez, and of course the latest takeover of Fortis (the main successor of the former "Generale Maatschappij/Société Generale Belge") by BNP-Paribas. Alll of these companies used to be "icons" of Belgium...
 
Jan H said:
Many comparisons between our country and Czechoslavakia have been made in the press. the conclusions were usually that there are indeed a lot of similarities, but at the same time also some big differences. I don't remember all the details, but the first one was the situation of Brussels, which is very complicated. Another one was the fact that Czechoslovakia was a relatively young nation (1918-1993 = 75 years), and they didn't really have much of a joint history before that. Belgium exists already 178 years and most of the country was already under a single ruler for much longer.
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Another major difference is that Belgium is much richer than Czechoslovakia was in 1992, just 2 years after the Velvet revolution when the economy was struggling to reform. Slovak nationalism was amplified by the economic hardship of Slovakia and the Czech unwillingness to economically support the Slovaks without their clear commitment to accept political reforms which would have made the federation workable.

But there is not much in common any more between the two regions:
- separate political parties
- separate television station, radio stations, newspapers, ...
- I think all sports associations have been split in regional associations, with only a limited federal association to represent the country internationally
- everything related to culture and education have been regionalised
- even the Red Cross has been split in a Flemish and a Walloon wing
- there used to be a strong group of companies and financial institutions that were really "Belgian", but most of them are gone now or have been taken over by foreign companies: Fina was taken over by Total, Sabena went bankrupt, its successor Brussels Airlines will be taken over by Lufthansa, Electrabel is part of Suez, and of course the latest takeover of Fortis (the main successor of the former "Generale Maatschappij/Société Generale Belge") by BNP-Paribas. Alll of these companies used to be "icons" of Belgium...
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Yeah, and in Czechoslovakia people understood each other's language.
 
The US, if V for Vendetta is to be believed.
 
Masquerouge said:
North Korea? Apparently things aren't as locked as they seem...
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Merging into a country with no remainder, I believe doesn't count as a break up.
 
Winner said:
Let's guess which country won't make it.

My list of candidates (incomplete, I admit):
1) Belgium - As the global financial crises worsens, the Vlaams get even more unhappy and unwilling to prop up Walloon strikers and unemployed. Flanders becomes independent and Wallonia joins France. Brussels becomes EU district.
2) Bosnia - as the last elections showed, the country has no future. Serbs, Muslims and Croats don't want to live with each other.
3) Bolivia - don't know much about it, but Luiz could explain it in more detail. I got the impression that the situation there is quite serious.
4) Kosovo - not technically a country, but the Kosovo Serbs want to get out.
5) Pakistan - I think the government there will lose all control and country will plunge into chaos.
6) U.K./Spain - always an option :)​
Any other suggestions?
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I don't think Spain will split, but I do think the UK will. Last to go will be Northern Ireland, after Wales and Scotland, and then I think England will split up - Cornwall for example. The government is too soft on these foreigners! EXTINGUISH THEM.

Don't know about Pakistan or Bolivia, but I hope Kosovo is given back to Serbia, that Bosnia is split up, and the same for Belgium. I hope that the same will happen to those other pointless countries, Luxemburg and Switzerland.
 
Jan H said:
Many comparisons between our country and Czechoslavakia have been made in the press. the conclusions were usually that there are indeed a lot of similarities, but at the same time also some big differences. I don't remember all the details, but the first one was the situation of Brussels, which is very complicated. Another one was the fact that Czechoslovakia was a relatively young nation (1918-1993 = 75 years), and they didn't really have much of a joint history before that. Belgium exists already 178 years and most of the country was already under a single ruler for much longer.

But there is not much in common any more between the two regions:
- separate political parties
- separate television station, radio stations, newspapers, ...
- I think all sports associations have been split in regional associations, with only a limited federal association to represent the country internationally
- everything related to culture and education have been regionalised
- even the Red Cross has been split in a Flemish and a Walloon wing
- there used to be a strong group of companies and financial institutions that were really "Belgian", but most of them are gone now or have been taken over by foreign companies: Fina was taken over by Total, Sabena went bankrupt, its successor Brussels Airlines will be taken over by Lufthansa, Electrabel is part of Suez, and of course the latest takeover of Fortis (the main successor of the former "Generale Maatschappij/Société Generale Belge") by BNP-Paribas. Alll of these companies used to be "icons" of Belgium...
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At least you have waffles.



The US, it can't keep up this empire with tons of welfare spending. It will definitely be paired down over the next 20 years if not colllapse all together. Maybe a revolution in the cards somewhere but I doubt that will make anything better.
 
but I do think the UK will. Last to go will be Northern Ireland, after Wales and Scotland, and then I think England will split up - Cornwall for example.
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Northern Ireland won't become a seperate nation, they will either stay joined to England or be merged into Ireland, because after all that the only reason Northern Ireland exists is that the majority of people in those northern terrioities want to stay part of the UK.

I get the feeling that if Scotland spilt from the UK nothing would actually change, because afterall, our eccomny is so intertwined that a complete seperation would be impossible, so politically there would be a spilt, but socially and eccomnicly nothing would change.
 
gangleri2001 said:
Wait a mintue! You're confusing again ERC and abertzales with support of independence, you d**n pro-spanish!

Every study shows that people who support independence in Euskadi is over 40% and in Catalonia over 35%. How is this possible? Because there's also the right wing independentism (which doesn't have any party of their own in both countries) and abstention.

So stop confusing deliberately left-wing independentist parties with the actual support to independence.
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Sounds like minorities to me.
 
Mexico, Iraq, Georgia(sort of already has).

If things keep getting worse in the US, I wouldn't be surprised to see things getting violent 20 years down the road.
 
Mexico might face a revolution (though I very highly doubt it) but its borders won't change.

As for new nations, if Georgia, Morocco and Israel don't count as options then I would say Somalia, Sudan or Bosnia.
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7656662.stm

There is an arms race between north and south Sudan and there will probably be an independence war 2011 and Darfur also wants to break off it seems no one really wants to be part of the country which is dominated by the Arab north.
 
Joe Harker said:
Northern Ireland won't become a seperate nation, they will either stay joined to England or be merged into Ireland, because after all that the only reason Northern Ireland exists is that the majority of people in those northern terrioities want to stay part of the UK.

I get the feeling that if Scotland spilt from the UK nothing would actually change, because afterall, our eccomny is so intertwined that a complete seperation would be impossible, so politically there would be a spilt, but socially and eccomnicly nothing would change.
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A slightly off-topic question, but I'd like to know how anti/pro-European are the non-English parts of the UK (Wales, Scotlant and Northern Ireland). UK is often seen as the most eurosceptic country, but everybody pretends its a monolithic bloc which I doubt. Are the Scots/Welsh more pro-EU than the English?
 
Winner said:
A slightly off-topic question, but I'd like to know how anti/pro-European are the non-English parts of the UK (Wales, Scotlant and Northern Ireland). UK is often seen as the most eurosceptic country, but everybody pretends its a monolithic bloc which I doubt. Are the Scots/Welsh more pro-EU than the English?
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Purely anecdotally, I would guess Wales & Scotland would be more pro EU, in the north the Loyalists are anti EU and Nationalists generally speaking would be warm towards it. but this is just observations, not figures to back it up.
 
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