Pangaea
Rock N Roller
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2010
- Messages
- 6,390
With those odds, there is a 4.8% chance of losing all three. Bad luck for sure 
6 vs 3 is borderline of what I would try, but on flatland and 20% I'd probably try. Two CG1s makes it tougher, definitely, but you had bad luck there. Losing 3 well-promoted guys too, that sucks more than just losing 3 randoms. I'd probably take that battle on myself, as I wouldn't want to face 4 next turn, but maybe use the unpromoted first so the well promoted guys can (hopefully) clean up. But sometimes I let the highly promoted guys attack early as well, when they have winning odds. Lost a Cover-CR3 guy at 86% in the current game. Not fun. But then they get that high by winning fights like 70%, so swings and roundabouts I guess.
I'm not sure how you could even manage to Oracle Civil Service. By the time I can get the Oracle, the economy is tanked, so I need Currency badly. To get CS, I'd have to postpone taking many cities I think, because otherwise I'd never get through Math+CoL in time. By restricting yourself to 5-6 cities, maybe it can be done. It's just that I like to hit AIs while I can with the checkers, and don't want to give them a chance to hook up horse or metal. It's difficult to know for sure too, because it takes time to get Alpha in trade, and until then it's down to tile yield gazing and repeatedly clicking the leaders to see what units and resources they have. Pain in the neck.
Perhaps I tend to overbuild checkers, so that also weighs down the economy, but I prefer to have 8-10 attacking or closely following up instead of a 5-6 units. I do use few if I can get away with it, but if there are already 3 defending archers, it's usually pretty risky to attack with only 6 guys. Usually it should work, at least against unpromoted archers, but then you're likely down to the last guy taking the city, and with a bad roll or two you're stuffed. It's nice to have a few extra guys just in case.
Just to take an upcoming example from my game, I've moved units towards the edge of Elizabeth's land ready to declare. I have 11 guys + medic, with 3 more a turn behind. But that is in T160-ish, not T80, so it's easier to get a decent force.
I've found there is a bigger deviance when attacking hill cities. On flatland you tend to at least injure the archers in the first attacks, even with poor odds, but against hills that is no certainty, with 20-25% chance of no damage to the archer. If you are unlucky and the first 3 guys don't injure anybody, it's going to be costly. Brennus had two hill cities, one 40%, and I lost a lot of guys taking those places.
As for my game, spending so much time on these maps, I get attached to them. It will be difficult to choose which one to continue with, so I may have to play both a bit past T200 just get a clearer impression of which one is in best shape going forward. If the war against Lizzie goes well, I should have 15 cities in this game too. So then it's to a degree down to sheer randomness, in where the GLH and Mids end up. Sure would be nice to locate Mansa though... Rather frustrating to have met 16 of 17 AIs, and the one 'unknown' is flippin' Mansa Musa.

6 vs 3 is borderline of what I would try, but on flatland and 20% I'd probably try. Two CG1s makes it tougher, definitely, but you had bad luck there. Losing 3 well-promoted guys too, that sucks more than just losing 3 randoms. I'd probably take that battle on myself, as I wouldn't want to face 4 next turn, but maybe use the unpromoted first so the well promoted guys can (hopefully) clean up. But sometimes I let the highly promoted guys attack early as well, when they have winning odds. Lost a Cover-CR3 guy at 86% in the current game. Not fun. But then they get that high by winning fights like 70%, so swings and roundabouts I guess.
I'm not sure how you could even manage to Oracle Civil Service. By the time I can get the Oracle, the economy is tanked, so I need Currency badly. To get CS, I'd have to postpone taking many cities I think, because otherwise I'd never get through Math+CoL in time. By restricting yourself to 5-6 cities, maybe it can be done. It's just that I like to hit AIs while I can with the checkers, and don't want to give them a chance to hook up horse or metal. It's difficult to know for sure too, because it takes time to get Alpha in trade, and until then it's down to tile yield gazing and repeatedly clicking the leaders to see what units and resources they have. Pain in the neck.
Perhaps I tend to overbuild checkers, so that also weighs down the economy, but I prefer to have 8-10 attacking or closely following up instead of a 5-6 units. I do use few if I can get away with it, but if there are already 3 defending archers, it's usually pretty risky to attack with only 6 guys. Usually it should work, at least against unpromoted archers, but then you're likely down to the last guy taking the city, and with a bad roll or two you're stuffed. It's nice to have a few extra guys just in case.
Just to take an upcoming example from my game, I've moved units towards the edge of Elizabeth's land ready to declare. I have 11 guys + medic, with 3 more a turn behind. But that is in T160-ish, not T80, so it's easier to get a decent force.
I've found there is a bigger deviance when attacking hill cities. On flatland you tend to at least injure the archers in the first attacks, even with poor odds, but against hills that is no certainty, with 20-25% chance of no damage to the archer. If you are unlucky and the first 3 guys don't injure anybody, it's going to be costly. Brennus had two hill cities, one 40%, and I lost a lot of guys taking those places.
As for my game, spending so much time on these maps, I get attached to them. It will be difficult to choose which one to continue with, so I may have to play both a bit past T200 just get a clearer impression of which one is in best shape going forward. If the war against Lizzie goes well, I should have 15 cities in this game too. So then it's to a degree down to sheer randomness, in where the GLH and Mids end up. Sure would be nice to locate Mansa though... Rather frustrating to have met 16 of 17 AIs, and the one 'unknown' is flippin' Mansa Musa.