Game Speed and Map Size

Yeah, it would. Don't forget about worst enemy status and if an AI is at war with somebody else, it isn't plotting to fight you, among other considerations. Good catch, though! I didn't really think my answer all the way through :)
 
I can only think of a few 3-step relationships (some of which you already listed or alluded to):
  1. B is at war with C so won't start one with A
  2. B has worst enemy C so is unhappy when A trades with C (or takes C as a vassal).
  3. C vassalizes to B while at war with A (so B is now at war with A).
  4. When A has weak vassal B it affects something about C's view of A's power -- it seems like it ought to be "more vassals means more power" but I vaguely recall something about averaging power.
  5. A bribes B to war with C which causes C to lower its opinion of A.
 
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