The post you linked is a follow up to this post:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=302418
And to answer your question "what if your initial dragoon dies"
The answer is he NEVER WILL, EVER on the first attack or any attack.
And that answer just generates the new question "Why will your dragoon be invincible?"
And i am forced to respond with the following:
As i detailed in those threads the tactic involves using jose of spain. Some basic education for those who dont know what that means; Jose is a leader that makes promotions cost 50% less. And spain is a country that has 2 distinctions, #1 they get a 25% combat bonus when fighting indians and #2 they get get a veteran soldier at the start of the game.
Now lets play with some math shall we?
Dragoons base str is 4, veteran dragoons start with veteran 1 and leadership, veteran 1 gives 10% str bonus, leadership gives 100% more exp per kill, and when you attack from a caravel to land you take a 20% negative modifier to str.
Indians have a base str of 2 and all thier standard innate abilities give them bonuses when ATTACKING not defending and only when attacking marsh, jungle, forest, and light forest. Each indian tribe also gets 2 random promotions that depend on their leaders traits. Some of the promotions are mountaineer, minuteman, formation, ranger, grenadier ect. So unless the tribe has formation or minuteman they really wont have any surefire bonuses when defending. I typically make my games in multiplayer with montezuma and mangas coloradas as the only two indian tribes. They are the two that have formation and minuteman and i do this because it will make it even harder for those not playing spain to deal with the indians militarily. But assuming you are comming up against the toughest unit they have and that is a 2 str indian with formation and hes fortified, thats a total of 150% str or in other words 3 str vs your dragoon.
And the dragoon will have a total of 115% str out of 4 str that is 4.6 str.
Conclusion: 4.6 str will beat 3 str defender 99.9% of the time.
There is a chance he could lose but its very small, and if he does lose then there is a chance he will withdraw with low hp and not die since he is a dragoon and they have innate withdraw bonus.
Now we are past math and going to enter hypothetical situation realm...
Assuming you lose the fight with that 0.1% chance to lose you will be able to disband all units and instantly a fresh veteran soldier and pioneer will spawn in a new caravel, while your tax rate goes up one notch.
So you get delayed by about 3 turns or so when/if you ever happen to lose that initial fight.
OK now for part two, the amount of exp you gain from that kill.
Assuming you get 1 exp per kill normally you would be getting 2 exp because you are using a veteran unit that has the leadership skill, and since your promotions cost 50% less to buy you are in effect getting the same as 4 kills worth of promotions from that single kill. After the first turn the math changes because of the fact that promotions cost more after each one so its a mathmaticly plottable curve with dimishing returns in the future.
But here is what you tangibly get from that first kill, you get 2 or 3 promotions since the amount of exp you get per kill has some randomness to it. That value of one exp i quoted before was an assumption since i dont know the real value. I do know that you get 2 or 3 promotions from your first kill and the next turn you can use them to heal up your unit and give him grenadier 2. That gives him an additional 45% bonus when attacking cities, and he will seem even more invincible as you keep getting more promotions.
And to your last statement about me offering competing strategies to my own idea, well i only did that because i am not getting alot of replys to my guides. Im also not afraid of any noob reading my guide and then owning me in gamespy. Since it takes some skill to execute complicated strategies and counterstrategies without leaving yourself exposed in another area.
And no you do not even need to play dutch to get a frigate fast, you can get a warship with any leader to destroy the caravel that is holding the indian slaughtering dragoon before it becomes a serious threat. And then even if the dragoon takes out your city you still have all the gold you traded for along the way and a ship to get more gold with. You will get a navy to sink that dragoon and then you will not only have a ship to blockade/lockdown his trading but you will likely have left over gold and colonists out scouting and in europe from immigration.
Now could you tell me what is so puzzling about these threads to you?
quote: "im particularly puzzled by this post of yours"
I know its hard for you but with my guidance maybe you can learn something new instead of just bashing me calling me a griefer and quitter when i am not either. I play my games to the finish and i dont consider any type of warfare to be griefing if you are playing a game without an initial peace treaty agreed upon at the start.