My apologies for vacating this issue for so long, but I have only recently skimmed through the chat to see exactly what we are up against. Now that I have, I can give my thoughts on some of the ideas presented here.
The Lend-A-General Program: Against the spirit of the game, IMHO, and most likely an insult to those we are willing to help. In fact, I know that Trip from Apolyton has already talked strategy with miccofl several times, but to no avail. What I would rather see is constant communication between CGN/APO/us, which includes:
1. Screenshots from CGN, showing their "hot spots," so that we may assist them verbally and know how to plan for our engagement into the hostilities.
2. A dedication to send troops as soon as possible(I will be furnishing my plan shortly after I have a talk with Apolyton on their time frame for Navigation), and would like help from the Military Department to do so.
3. A minimal per turn gift on our part until our engagement, not to exceed 40gpt.
We cannot drop our joint-tech obligation to Apolyton for this.
I think we can be more effective with actual units there rather than sending our meager sums their way. Timing is everything, however. I just want to make sure that our assistance is significant.
CGN's chances: Rik's assessment is right on, but I am still concerned that our minimal per turn offering won't help them much.
GWT invasion: I am fully prepared to field a strong navy as soon as we can get our hands on Astronomy. By building Harbors on both island cities, and maybe building a third city/ harbor, we can dedicate those to building nothing but Caravels. I will be meeting with Apolyton as soon as they are available to discuss their progress on research, and when we can get these techs.
One thing to keep in mind is that Poly has(or had...must confirm) a tech advantage in the Education---->Navigation branch of the tech tree, so we should get to Caravels first. This means that we can scout the ocean first, and prepare ourselves for any move they make. I would also try to encourage Poly to take the path to Magnetism afterward so that we both possess even better naval technology.
So, in short I am not that worried about a GWT invasion, especially if we can get to their side and keep 'em busy.
Who's comin' with me??