Grand Strategy Thread

[Paul#42]

What infrastructure builds do we need before we can start on Apollo?

A couple of courts, universities, temples and cathedrals maybe.
Some nuclear and Mfg plants for sure.
Some platforms (The Bayou, Chamsuri's Cove, The Ways)?

Also, I don't think that sinking Free's transports is wise quite yet. All that will do is serve to paint a target on us. Much better to hope that FREE goes after Babe, so that Saber and FREE will be forced to engage

Did anybody suggest (seriously) to attack FREE ships outside our 6-tile-zone?
Inside we should attack and outside we should resist the temptation (like I did back when it could have made an impact)

 

[peter grimes]

Inside we should attack and outside we should resist the temptation

I'm in complete agreement.

 

[General_W]

A road diverged in a yellow wood…
General_W's strategy analysis for The Council at a crossroads​

The way I see it – we've got essentially 4 options for dealing with FREE right now.

1) Go to full-scale war with FREE

• Pro: We get to start sinking transports now.
• Cons: We make ourselves FREEs next target enemy for elimination, and they've got a much larger military than we do, they're already mobilized for war, and they have a lot more land area and now luxuries than we do. Even in the best case scenario, we'll suffer from enormous war weariness and pretty much be giving up on our Space Race plans that we've been preparing for the entire game. Even if we win, we'll be in a weak position against Saber.
• General_W's bottom line: This is a very, very bad idea.

2) Stay at war with FREE – but don't attack anything out of range of our coast

• Pro: We keep FREE off-balance
• Cons: We make ourselves a much bigger potential target for FREEs next enemy slated for elimination, staying at war is just a gamble that gives them time to heal and rebuild before deciding if they want to go straight for Saber, or else pick on potentially easier prey = us. If they decide to come after us – it's hard to see how it works out well in the end for us – even if we manage to avoid annihilation.
• General_W's bottom line: This is probably an even worse idea than going to all out war.

3) Make peace with FREE – but give 15-turns notice for flexibility's sake

• Pro: Making nice with FREE hopefully reduces the target on our back, and allows us to start encouraging them to go after Saber… while still being open to help Saber if things go really badly. We're free to keep pursing our Space Race goal that we have fine-tuned our gameplan for since the beginning.
• Cons: Our arguments for why FREE should attack Saber are much weaker if we've cancelled our peace treaty. Obviously FREE will recognize that without a mandatory peace with us, they're in much more danger in going to all-out war with Saber.
• General_W's bottom line: This is an "ok" option – but I think only has a 20-25% chance of working out the way we hope it will.

4) Make peace with FREE – and renew our commitment to long-term peace with them

• Pro: If FREE agreed to this, it would give us a ton of breathing room in planning our defenses and virtually guarantee that FREE's next war will be with Saber.
• Cons: If FREE's war with Saber goes really well, then they will be impossibly huge and will totally crush us.
• General_W's bottom line: This is a risky option – but if FREE goes for it, we'll have lots of avenues to mitigate the risk. By supplying technology and even gold aid to Saber, we can hedge against FREE getting any rapid success against Saber. Hopefully we can engineer a long-term stalement with heavy casualties on both side while remaining neutral in the middle, and building up massive defenses for when FREE and Saber finally realize they need a joint strike against us to stop the SS. It'll be a fight to the finish – but I think this is still our best/only real shot at winning.

So there's my analysis. You can obviously see where I come down.
Other thoughts?

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I don't know that I agree completely - I think FREE will go after BABE next, then SABER, cause I think they can take out BABE with tanks vs. infantry - I don't think tanks/marines can take out mech infantry.

More importantly, I think there is a fifth option: BABE, SABER and us vs. FREE. I don't know that BABE and SABER would go for it - well, I suspect BABE would, I dunno about SABER. But I think we should at least know what they want to do.

 

[donsig]

Well, The General's last option assumes FREE will not attack us anyway when they want to (without notice). Are we so sure this won't happen?

 

[General_W]

More importantly, I think there is a fifth option: BABE, SABER and us vs. FREE. I don't know that BABE and SABER would go for it - well, I suspect BABE would, I dunno about SABER. But I think we should at least know what they want to do.

I agree with this... but if I can't track down Chamnix online, I don't know if we'll be able to answer this question before we make any decisions?

Even if they did agree to it - how would we divide up FREE's land fairly... especially when it needs to be balanced against the different levels of effort each team will need to put into the war effort?
This thing is just a nightmare to try to coordinate I'm afraid.
Still - if I can find Chamnix, I'll try to sound him out on it... but I suspect they won't be interested, and without Saber, it's a no-go... obviously.

Well, The General's last option assumes FREE will not attack us anyway when they want to (without notice). Are we so sure this won't happen?

I think it's unlikely (not impossible) but unlikely that FREE would reaffirm a commitment to peace, just to back stab us. If they're planning on going after us next, they'll probably just ignore our letters and/or decline making peace with us. After all, why give us the War Happiness boost?

 

[Paul#42]

I think it is extremely unlikely that SABER or BABE or even both will openly turn against FREE as long as SABER has a beachhead there.

The only chance for that to happen I see if FREE should attack one of them. But in FREE's position I'd use my comfortable position to regroup, save my gains and watch how the other conflict develops.

We'll find out if we offer peace right away. If they decline, we know more. If they accept - also.
A win-win-option imo.

 

[Niklas]

Paul is absolutely right - we have nothing to lose by going back to peace with FREE, and plenty information to gain by offering it.

 

[donsig]

Well, we do have something to lose if we are FREE's next target. We lose the chance to keep them from sneaking up on us. We lose the chance to sink some transports.

What I'd really like to hear is a guess as to what SABER is trying to accomplish. We know FREE is trying for a domination win so we can estimate what moves they will make. I'm not sure we can do the same for SABER. Are they also trying for domination? We need to put ourselves in both SABER's and FREE's shoes and figure out how they are trying to win, including how they intend to prevent us (and each other) from winning. Yeah, I can see that if SABER and FREE fight to a stalemate we get a chance to win this. What if they don't stalemate? What if one gets the upper hand? Is this stalemate our only hope? It seems we are in a tight spot. Once the domination teams get synthetic fibers do they have any need to research further? Would they need Manhattan and satellites for ICBMs? If they stop researching after they get modern armor then our proposed tech deal with SABER isn't much good. Sure we'll be able to stay ahead of them tech-wise (since they stop researching) but will we be able to research fast enough if we're attached?

Could it be that SABER is only trying to capture BABEland to deny it to FREE?

Sorry I have only questions and no answers.

 

[peter grimes]

Could someone remind me why everyone is convinced that FREE is going for a domination victory? Did I miss a letter from them somewhere??

If they are going for Space, then they will have no reason to pursue any further wars, except to deny someone from scooping them on a space victory.

I'm not convinced Free will want to have a war with Saber any time soon.

 

[General_W]

(x-post)

I agree with Niklas and Paul - I think they're right on the money.

I'll still keep my eyes out for Chamnix to see if I can take his temperature on the idea... but in the meantime, there's no reason to hold up trying to get back to peace with FREE, imo.

 

[donsig]

Could someone remind me why everyone is convinced that FREE is going for a domination victory? Did I miss a letter from them somewhere??

If they are going for Space, then they will have no reason to pursue any further wars, except to deny someone from scooping them on a space victory.

FREE pretty much told GONG they wanted to dominate. I'd like to think FREE is going for a space race but is eliminating GONG consistent with that objective? I thought all they really needed to do was remove the GONG culture win threat. Is having a second continent going to boost their research pace enough to keep them in the tech race?

 

[General_W]

Wow – lots of activity here

Donsig & Peter raise a lot of good questions.
Let me take a swing at them…

Well, we do have something to lose if we are FREE's next target. We lose the chance to keep them from sneaking up on us. We lose the chance to sink some transports.

I disagree with this. We've already announced our Doomsday Barrier – if FREE crosses the line with a stack of transports – we'll sink them. Peace-treaty or not.

What I'd really like to hear is a guess as to what SABER is trying to accomplish.

There are really only 2 options. Domination or Space Race.
If it's Domination – then our best chance is to play FREE and Saber off eachother and buy time.
If it's Space Race then we need to try to get FREE to attack them and prevent them from being successful. This should be doable, since Saber will control more land, be ahead of FREE technologically, and be fresh of a hard war with BABE - therefore they will appear as the bigger threat and the potentially easier target. Assuming FREE is going for Domination anyway – then they'll have to go after someone… and why go after us, and allow Saber to consolidate their gains?

Bottom line – our path to victory is the same no matter what course Saber is pursuing. We need to get FREE and Saber to fight each other.

Could someone remind me why everyone is convinced that FREE is going for a domination victory? … If they are going for Space, then they will have no reason to pursue any further wars, except to deny someone from scooping them on a space victory.

The wild card here is if both FREE and Saber are going for a Space win.

In that case – we'll just have to rely on our long-term planning for a Space win to carry us to victory. Our Metro cities and science advantage will hopefully be enough for a nail-biter of a win.
I'm personally ok with this situation, but I think it's unlikely.

What if they don't stalemate? What if one gets the upper hand? Is this stalemate our only hope?

Stalemate is pretty much our only hope! (imo)
And by stalemate, I mean = progress is slow enough that our defenses and/or tech lead is big enough by the time the war is over that the winner can't stop us.

I think this is realistic, given our opportunity to help out whichever side is doing the worst… provided we can remain on good terms with both FREE and Saber.


It's a gamble… but I think we've got as good of odds as either FREE or Saber… even if our path to victory requires some serious diplomatic acrobatics.

 

[Niklas]

It's definitely going to boost their research pace quite a lot. The problem is that it won't boost it enough to overcome both us and SABER combined, nor would it be immediately effective. Getting settlers and workers over there to set up the needed specialist farms would take a large number of turns, during which we'll get ever closer to a win.

That said, I find it likely they have switched targets. They must know that both us and SABER would beat them in a space race now, with our mutual cooperation. Domination is their best chance to win, and they should be aware of that too.

 

[PrinceMyshkin]

Could someone remind me why everyone is convinced that FREE is going for a domination victory? Did I miss a letter from them somewhere??

If they are going for Space, then they will have no reason to pursue any further wars, except to deny someone from scooping them on a space victory.

I'm not convinced Free will want to have a war with Saber any time soon.

Perhaps its just me that's convinced, so I'll review my reasons.

1. There letter to us stated "There can only be one color in the world and that color is TEAL."

2. They had built about 80 tanks by then, but thought with some good reasons only 30 or so would be enough to knock us out in 2-3 turns. What were the other 50 tanks going to do to help their SS plans.

3. They got rocketry as their first tech in the modern age, but didn't send even a single TOW infantry against us. Rocketry leaves them just two-techs away from upgrading all those tanks to modern armor.

4. They know they can't possibly out-research the Council and have been out of the trading loop on tech for some time.

5. They must have finally figured out Saber was stealing tech from them as they researched the cheap espionage in 4-turns in the modern age as a review of tech research times on Council's turn 210 and 211 shows.

I'm just adding things up for them and maybe I'm wrong, but it smells like they want military victory. As to domination, that will be impossible until this game is a 1 v 1 anyway as the 2 remaining teams will no doubt have higher than 33% population unless they are rump states burnt nearly to death by war. For domination or a military victory war against everyone must be planned and the sign of 8-9 airfields in their territory is another indication they are planning for this. They didn't need to attack Gong at all if SpaceShip was their desire or at least for another 50 turns as Gong had no chance of 100K until at least turn 270.

Edit: More crossposting, I'll read for a while now.

 

[Yilar]

I don't have the exact count, but doesn't FREE have to capture 4 of the main continents to win a domination victory? I mean like even with our continent completely covered and one resource island we only have 19% land mass. Quick math: 19x3 = 57%, meaning they have to get another 9% from a 4th continent. I think it would be easier going for conquest over domination.

Btw, what if we do space next, do manhatten and nuke free with tact nukes through a nuke sub chain? We could basically take free out of the race with just a handfull of nukes. An invasion is not really worth it, as we would have to use a lot of units and then saber would nuke us while we were taking over free. But taking out free's production and then just defending the sea would be very doable.

 

[donsig]

Nice idea Yilar - but we'd have to give FREE 15 turns notice that we wanted to get out of our current peace treaty. I know it's confusing since we are at war with them but that's just a technicality.

You do bring up a very good point though - nukes are the way to prevent a space win. Now that Niklas has brought up the idea of building our spaceship the turn after we build apollo, I wonder how many ICBMs could be built the turn after Manhattan? (I know satellites are needed first.) Now I must also wonder how many subs could be upgraded to nuclearsubs and how many tactical nukes could be launched the turn after Manhattan appears.

 

[Yilar]

Submarines can't be upgraded (yes it sucks).

Tact nukes have same effect as ICBM, but only have 6 range.
Tact nukes costs 300 shields (1200 gold)
ICBM's costs 500 shields (2000 gold)

The key here is speed, we can get nukes out in some 10 turns I reckon, with free's sentry line consisting of cruisers we can sneak in nuke subs in without them seeing them. The biggest problem is the fact they only have capacity of 1. Which means we need quite a lot of subs to make a decent chain, but either way it is still cheaper than building icbms. Also we are at no risk of free nuking back as they don't have fission or space flight. The main downside is the fact that we will be stuck with massive war weariness, which we can't get rid of.

The alternative is to follow the space victory plan, we should be able to get it done in 25-30 turns or so if we don't get nuked or invaded before. The trick here is to hide our tech progress.

 

[Paul#42]

It's definitely going to boost their research pace quite a lot. The problem is that it won't boost it enough to overcome both us and SABER combined, nor would it be immediately effective. Getting settlers and workers over there to set up the needed specialist farms would take a large number of turns, during which we'll get ever closer to a win.

It will take them even longer if they want to evade the drafting unhappiness in the existing towns by disbanding them all but one to settlers.

Submarines can't be upgraded (yes it sucks).

I did not realize that...

The key here is speed, we can get nukes out in some 10 turns I reckon, with free's sentry line consisting of cruisers we can sneak in nuke subs in without them seeing them. The biggest problem is the fact they only have capacity of 1. Which means we need quite a lot of subs to make a decent chain, but either way it is still cheaper than building icbms. Also we are at no risk of free nuking back as they don't have fission or space flight. The main downside is the fact that we will be stuck with massive war weariness, which we can't get rid of.

The alternative is to follow the space victory plan, we should be able to get it done in 25 turns or so if we don't get nuked or invaded before.

What does nuking FREE do good to us if we don't press on with land units?
IIRC it kills all units, some people and some improvements, right?

I'm not too excited about nuking but maybe I should devide playing from real life...

 

[AutomatedTeller]

we can't build tactical nukes until space flight - can't build icbms until satellites. And we need to spend 1000 shields to build manhatten, as well (or is manhatten 800? I don't remember)

It's hard for me to imagine that FREE would go for anything other than domination or conquest - they have what I assume is the biggest military in the world, they've already taken out 1 civ faster than I thought possible and they aren't that far from getting supertanks.