How likely is it that Toku will attack me at pleased?

[mintegar]

I'm playing on Immortal difficulty as Mhemed. It's 580AD, share a landmass with Toku and Monty. I'm in the north, Toku sits in the middle and Monty is to the south. I got lucky with no early war declarations, and now we are all at pleased attitude thanks to Buddhism which was founded by Monty.


Now, while scouting Toku's land i saw he is building up a stack.

I tried to figure out by looking at AI_doWar.xls and LeaderHeads_317.xls what the probability of a DOW by Toku would be.

Those docs can be found in Leaders_AI_doWar.zip which is linked here.

Now the AI "thought" process as I understand it based on the above documents is roughly the following, i have bolded the things which are still unclear to me:

1. There is mention of a AI "DaggerStrategy". If I understand correctly, an AI that sets itself to use this strategy wouldn't go into WHEOOHRN mode, but instead declare war immediatly. What I couldn't find is how is the likelyhood of AI picking this DaggerStrategy?
2. When an AI decides if it think about starting a war, there is a % per turn chance of it going into either "TOTAL WAR" (1% for Toku) or if that check fails then there is a check if it should go into "LIMITED WAR" (1.666% for Toku).
3. If war decision is made, there is check if my civ would be a valid victim. For this purpose a random number is rolled, NWR (range 0..99 for total-war, -10..89 for limited war). Then two modifiers are added to this NWR. First, AggressiveAI (+10), which isn't active in my game. Then there is mention of "Do we like Total/Limited/DogpileRaids" (+10). How is this determined? NWR+modifiers is then compared against Attitude-NoWarProps (90 for Toku at pleased). So if (NWR+modifiers) >= 90, a victim would be seen as valid.
4. There are further checks listed in the document: Are we strong enough, valid land target, etc.. I assume those would go through in my game, but haven't looked at them in detail.