How to evaluate the likelihood of being attacked.

[petersc]

Is there a good summary article which explains what factors a player can keep an eye on in order to have some idea that an AI may be likely to attack them?

I recently lost a game I was doing well at (well for me) because of a "surprise" attack. This actually happens to me quite a bit I think if I am going for any sort of non-military victory. But in this game in particular I made a point of watching the "SIT-REP" screen and I never saw myself as a target of any of the AI. But I guess this doesn't tell the whole story regarding threats.

I tried searching the forum for this, but end up finding mostly info. relating to attaining diplo victories.

 

[InovA]

I know part of it has to do with who the specific leader is. The Civ Illustrated #1 (Know Your Enemy) would be helpful to determine if a civ is capable of plotting war while at Pleased relation with you.

I can't remember where I saw this, but I remember reading that the closer your cities are to each other, the more likely someone is to declare war on you. Also, the power ratio you have between other civs is a big factor. I think if it's over 2.0 or 2.5, nobody will ever plot war on you. If it's below 0.3, high chance of anybody plotting war on you if they're able to.

Those are the only factors I know of, sorry I don't remember the article(s) about them or know of any mathematically explained guides about the topic!

I did find this sheet that shows one of the main factors behind the probability of a given leader declaring war on you, based off of their relation towards you:

Spoiler :

EDIT: The DecW column means they must have a relation above 'x' with YOU for you to bribe them into a war, and the DecWThem column means they must have a relation of 'x' or worse on the target civ.

This of course is reversed if it's an AI bribing a civ onto you. So Catherine can be bribed into war on you even if you're Friendly with her, as long as the civ bribing her is also Friendly with her.

 

[InovA]

Also:
"So, if the NoWarProb is 60, does that mean a 60% chance they'll never attack you?
Also, furious isn't listed. Is there then a 100% chance they'll declare?"

Not quite. The number means the probability that an AI will abort war considerations due to relations. 60% means that if a Civ is planning on starting a war against you, there's a 60% chance that he doesn't that turn due to relations. At Furious no one will abort war considerations due to relations, hence the "0%". All this is just a teeny-tiny part of the war declaration logic that isn't particularly dominating compared to other factors, so basically the only real result of all this is that if the noWarProb is 100% they won't actively start planning a war against you.

Nutshell:

- Each turn Civs roll some dice to see if they want to start a war
- If yes, they roll another set of dice to see if they don't want to declare on their buddy after all
- The above is just a tiny part of war declaration mechanics

 

[Fippy]

Yup it's a great sheet, NoWarProbs most importantly shows who can still be dangerous at pleased.
Pls=100 are those leaders who will never plot war on not just you but also not on other AIs if relations are pleased.
The typical ones like Indians or Egypt are there, but also some surprises like Mehmed (who builds loads of units ).

NoWarProbs for cautious is also interesting, some AIs are really unlikely to plot even if they are not pleased..Lincoln and Justi with 80 are highest.
While Cathy, Louis and Vicky at 20 have the worst numbers.
That does not mean they are more dangerous than Monty, obviously
Psychos are still worst cos they train more units, which triggers those number checks more often.
Mehmed would qualify as controllable psycho, with being unable to plot at pleased but building 40% units like Ragnar etc.
But he's not known as psycho, and those numbers help understanding why he spams units but plots much less often.

And yup, "decwthem" can easily be identified with Cathy's help
Infamous for her backstabbing possibility on allies (friendly), only one.
"Decw" they made a bit complicated..but as Inova wrote, relation must be better than x for bribes being available.
For example Cathy cannot be bribed at pleased, only friendly.

 

[lymond]

Ha..I always forget that about Mehmed, that he won't plot at Pleased. He is one of the four with highest unitprob. (Shaka, Rag, and Nappy are the others)

Looking at the numbers, it appears Alex is the most psychoiest of the psychos, followed by Monty.

 

[Randy Random]

Psychos are still worst cos they train more units, which triggers those number checks more often.

Interesting; I didn't realize that units trigger the check. I guess that explains why super early DOWs are rare. I have been browsing these forums ever since DanF first did the code-diving to come up with those numbers and never knew that.

 

[lymond]

Interesting; I didn't realize that units trigger the check. I guess that explains why super early DOWs are rare. I have been browsing these forums ever since DanF first did the code-diving to come up with those numbers and never knew that.

Yep..I mean take Vicky for instance. The numbers appear to show that she is actually pretty dangerous (her numbers are in line with Alex), but her unit prob is on the low end, so she is less likely to DOW...although on high levels she really can be kinda dangerous.

Same for Cathy. You can get her to Friendly though pretty fast.

 

[Randy Random]

Same for Cathy. You can get her to Friendly though pretty fast.

Right. She's not at all shy about making demands

 

[elitetroops]

Also, the power ratio you have between other civs is a big factor. I think if it's over 2.0 or 2.5, nobody will ever plot war on you. If it's below 0.3, high chance of anybody plotting war on you if they're able to.

Power ratio is a factor that acts as an on/off switch. Depending on what type of war they would start, they check once if they are strong enough in relation to the target. If yes, then target is a valid target. It does not matter if you are one warrior short of the limit, or if you have only one warrior defending your entire empire. In both cases they are just as likely to target you.

The relevant XML variables are <iMaxWarNearbyPowerRatio>, <iMaxWarDistantPowerRatio> and <iLimitedWarPowerRatio>. The highest value among any leader is 130, meaning if you are above 1.3x their power rating, nobody will ever plot war at you. The most dangerous neighbors in this respect are Isabella, Monty and Sitting Bull. They all have <iMaxWarNearbyPowerRatio> set to 130. Interestingly, Shaka and Alex both have that value at 90, so you can be safe even if you're slightly below their power rating. The biggest wimps are De Gaulle and Elizabeth, who consider a neighbor above 80% of their power rating too strong.

In practice this doesn't really matter much. On the higher levels you need a very big army to equal their power rating. Power rating is also increased by walls and barracks, which the AI often spams everywhere, so if you have equal power rating, your army is likely to be larger than theirs. It's not worth it to have that amount of units hanging around in a peaceful game. This is why diplomacy is the best way to avoid war. If your power rating is high enough to avoid being a valid target, then war is exactly what you want to put those units to use.

Interesting; I didn't realize that units trigger the check. I guess that explains why super early DOWs are rare.

AI can't DOW super early, because they need access to offensive units first. If I recall correctly, an AI must have access to 2 different units stronger than archers before they would ever consider going to war. In practice this means they need metals hooked up. An AI with only horses should not plot until they can build both chariots and horse archers. Siege might also count, so maybe in theory someone could come at you with chariots and catapults...

 

[lymond]

Interesting stuff, Elite. I assumed some of it, but don't know for sure or the details. Is not also certain techs involved in the power ratio?

 

[elitetroops]

Interesting stuff, Elite. I assumed some of it, but don't know for sure or the details. Is not also certain techs involved in the power ratio?

Yes, some techs, some buildings and wonders, military units and population. Since the AI doesn't whip enough, they tend to be far ahead in population as well, assuming you have roughly the same city count.

Edit: it should also be mentioned that the calculations change if you are at war. Then the potential attacker would also take into account the power rating of the civ you are at war with. I don't remember now which way around it was. When checking if strong enough, they either reduce the power rating of your enemy from yours, or they add that power rating to their own.

 

[Gumbolt]

Of course if you keep resources early to Ai it helps to get them to pleased. At that point the majority are unlikely to attack you as they invariable go for some they are cautious or annoyed at. Some player early on will gift all food resources via trade. Gifting 2-3 resources when you have small cities is very manageable. So 1 resource after 50 turns is +1 diplo. 4 resources over 25 turns is +2 diplo. Of course the big mistkae many make is to switch religions early on. This invariably leads to 1-2 ai being annoyed with you and much more likely to attack.

JC can be worst neighbour. Can declare at pleased. Plus has his praets which can be very annoying if he gets pults too. He also expands very quickly. Where leaders like Shaka just spam weak units and often lag badly behind in tech. SB's dogsoldier whilst weak in attack is strong vs melee.

 

[elmurcis]

There are few "crazy" guys that are very easy to "read" (Monty, Shaka.. few more) - is there worst enemy that I can gift some strong defense units (oh yes, have done this )? Safe!!! No more? Get ready for war (and get that HBR-great counter for Jaguar/Dog Soldier or Ivory ASAP) simple and easy going. Tiny bit harder with moderate strong dangers that can develop some economy before they reach "attack mode" period. Like Ragnar 16 units (inside 3 tile movement Galleys) ampbibious attack ~1400 BC

 

[Randy Random]

AI beelines IW though, especially those prone to war. Chances of no copper or iron is pretty slim.