Hurricane Dennis

[Quasar1011]

While Dennis is currently a tropical storm, conditions appear favorable for it to be the season's first major hurricane, possibly striking the U.S. Here is part of the discussion bulletin from the Hurricane Center in Miami:

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A NOAA RECON REPORT AT 650 MB INDICATED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 05/2114Z
AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. USING ABOUT 95 PERCENT OF THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND A T3.0/45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45
KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15. DENNIS HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD
SPEED SOMEWHAT...POSSIBLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND TAKES
DENNIS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND THEN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES
EAST-WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...AFTER
THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MURKY. ALL OF THE MODELS
WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BEFORE LIFTING OUT SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. SINCE DENNIS IS A LARGER THAN AVERAGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
DAYS 3-5...THE LARGE OUTER CIRCULATION COULD ERODE THE RIDGE EVEN
MORE...RESULTING IN WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS THAN THE 5-8 KT THAT
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN..OR
RIGHT...SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR AND HIGH SST
ENVIRONMENT..WHICH UNFORTUNATELY ARE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR PRODUCING
INTENSE HURRICANES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT IS LESS THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH BRING DENNIS TO 108 KT IN 96 HOURS AND 113
KT IN 60 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.6N 69.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 71.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 20.1N 78.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.4N 82.4W 100 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 84.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 27.0N 86.5W 100 KT


Stay tuned!
-Quasar, Civfanatic meteorologist

 

[Chieftess]

Looks like a busy hurricane season starting up. (I wonder if they'll get to the R,S,T names like they did one year. Didn't they get to V or something?)

 

[farting bob]

I find it hard to get worried about anything called "dennis".
but if that map is right, looks like florida will have a windy couple of days.

 

[Hitro]

Looks like Cuba is screwed.

 

[Cuivienen]

Looks like the new hurricane target for the year is Mobile, Alabama.

And an updated projection:

 

[Xen]

heard about it, alot of friends are going surfing over the next couple days because of it.

 

[Cuivienen]

This year gets a tropical record.

"Four Atlantic weather systems -- Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Dennis -- reached Tropical Storm status by July 5, the earliest for so many named storms in recorded history."

Dennis is now a Category 2 hurricane, passing east and then north of Jamaica. It will pass along the southern coast of Cuba, then turn and cross the island and probably make final landfall around Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL.

 

[hbdragon88]

Dennis the Meance, anybody?

 

[Perfection]

Dennis the Meance, anybody?

Actually I was thinking "Denny Crane"

 

[Quasar1011]

Here's the latest... charts follow...

HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI
DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN
STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN
THAT AREA.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13. THIS MOTION
SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS
SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE
GFDL TRACK. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
SUITE. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE. OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK...
CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.0N 76.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.4N 78.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.3N 80.5W 95 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.2N 82.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND

 

[Romanfe]

Why Are We Yelling???

Its gonna be a wild one this year.

 

[Chieftess]

Why Are We Yelling???

Its gonna be a wild one this year.

That would be from noaa.gov. They use all caps. (copy/paste)

 

[GenMarshall]

At least its not ramming to Conneticut . All were just going to get is the remnants of the storm .

 

[Cuivienen]

Speaking of remnants, we're due to get the remnants of Cindy tomorrow. 4 inches of rain even though its been over land since hitting Alabama!

 

[Azale]

its florida....they should be ready.

Im in South Texas, we are way overdue for a big hit, and since this year is supposed to be a record year.....well, Im just hoping it comes around mid-august or so

 

[Xen]

its florida....they should be ready.

 

[Cuivienen]

You're in denial. God is still angry about 2000.

 

[Xen]

You say that because you dont have to live here (though I agree with you )

 

[Quasar1011]

Yikes! Dennis is a 4!

HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...DENNIS BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDANA DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN
AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND PINAR
DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF
AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO
LONGBOAT KEY.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI IS CANCELLED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WARNINGS
IN JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DENNIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR NEAR CABO CRUZ
CUBA AND ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS
NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS FROM THE AFFECTED AREA
INDICATE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE
OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.9 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

-------------------------

From Quasar: There sure is a lot of warm water ahead of Dennis...

 

[FriendlyFire]

O_o

seeing that the "force" of the hurrican is in relation to the water tempature that spawned it. This is going to be a repeat of last years.