Is Irish Unification in the near future?

[Vandal Warlord]

Who says Ireland actually wants Ulster anymore?

The Sinn Féin.

 

[ParkCungHee]

The Sinn Féin.

Who have a wopping 4 seats in the Dail. Even they know getting the Irish people to take it off the British's hands is going to be a very, very tough sell.

 

[Vandal Warlord]

Who have a wopping 4 seats in the Dail. Even they know getting the Irish people to take it off the British's hands is going to be a very, very tough sell.

You only asked if there was someone who still wanted Ulster. I didn't say they had the majority of the seats.

 

[Plotinus]

No, he asked if there was someone who thought the Republic wanted Ulster. Sinn Fein want the Republic to have Ulster. Whether they think the Republic wants to have Ulster is another matter. If they think it does then they're completely mad, because the last thing the Republic wants is to be responsible for that place.

 

[ParkCungHee]

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I wonder, if anyone has any opinions, what role the diminishing influence of religion in politics may have in potential reunification? As Ulster Brits gradually cease to self-identify as Protestant, do you think that they may come to self-identify as Irish rather than British? It's not incorrect to say that the division in national identity was heavily inspired by the division in religion, at least from the Unionist perspective.

Essentially none. If this was really a religious struggle, the Anglicans in N.I. would at best be neutral, or perhaps closer to the Catholics, because they're episcopal while the Presbyterians are on the Protestant fringe. And the most radical Unionist groups like the UDA, UDF, and the Progressive Unionist Party show little signs of strong religious base. The real problem is that the Northern Irish, or Ulsterman, aren't simply British. That is, they are not simply imports from England who in general they have a mixed relationship with, or even Scots, but are there own unique nationality. Northern Irish, Ulsterman, Ulsterscotts, whatever you want to call them. They see themselves as quite apart from the Irish on many, many more matters then Religion. I mean yeah, Ian Paisley could still draw a crowd, but the very fact that he could says something, because he's not a Presbyterian or an Anglican.

 

[Gwyddelig]

Who have a wopping 4 seats in the Dail. Even they know getting the Irish people to take it off the British's hands is going to be a very, very tough sell.

Oh we want it alright, just in 50 years time when it won't blow up (literally) in our faces and cost billions that we don't have.

We appear to particularly want it though at 3am on a Saturday night, just between chucking out time and a trip to the chipper...

 

[Babbler]

Not a chance, a more passive/aggressive bunch with respect to the "Union" you would never find. Plaid Cymru is a fringe party and the heavily-populated, anglophone southern belt is inherently distrustful of the northern, and western Welsh-speaking regions. There is absolutely no coherent groundswell of support for independence there.

Yah, I agree that Welsh independence is a very dim prospect (In fact, I think it's a dim prospect for Scotland, Catalonia and the Basque Country for much the same reasons). But he was talking about autonomy, which isn't completely crazy. After all, there is now a Welsh Assembly it could conceivable expand its remit in future.

As for Northern Ireland: again, not going to happen. The majority in the North don't want it. For the South, it's probably like the situation with Irish Gaelic; the majority would like to see the island united and the language alive and health for sentimental reasons - but they aren't willing to put the effort into it. And I don't think they are really wrong for doing this.

It's kind of sad. Northern Ireland is stuck between two countries that are for the most part apathetic to it and tired of its perpetual problems. It's politics are stuck in the mud over the status issue, so it cannot really move on to real with the real and mundane issues of the day.

 

[really]

To be honest, I doubt very many people from Britainthink about it much and don't really care. I suspect though that many do, subconciously at least, lump us in as members of the British "family" insofar as they think of us at all whilst perhaps realising that this is a dodgy shorthand...

My experience from living in the UK agrees with this.

I don't see this happening within the next 20 years, maybe in 50.

Some deranged people have dreams of it happening by 2016.

All the Irish AFAIK have voted no.

 

[ParkCungHee]

Oh we want it alright, just in 50 years time when it won't blow up (literally) in our faces and cost billions that we don't have.

Well yeah, you guys want it back in theory. Same as the Koreans all want Unification in Theory.
But if Britain suddenly said tomorrow "You know what? The republicans are right, it's yours now, ta-ta bye." I would guess the enthusiasm in the Dail might best be described as 'subdued'.
I mean, it would require almost the entirety of the IDF to keep order in Northern Ireland under good conditions. If they UDA or UDF started acting up (and IIRC they still haven't disarmed) It's questionable whether the IDF could even maintain it's military presence there.

 

[Babbler]

Well yeah, you guys want it back in theory. Same as the Koreans all want Unification in Theory.
But if Britain suddenly said tomorrow "You know what? The republicans are right, it's yours now, ta-ta bye." I would guess the enthusiasm in the Dail might best be described as 'subdued'.
I mean, it would require almost the entirety of the IDF to keep order in Northern Ireland under good conditions. If they UDA or UDF started acting up (and IIRC they still haven't disarmed) It's questionable whether the IDF could even maintain it's military presence there.

Well, the UVF has put its "arms beyond reach". I think we can trust them, just like we can trust a child putting his cookies out of his reach.

 

[ParkCungHee]

Well, the UVF has put its "arms beyond reach". I think we can trust them, just like we can trust a child putting his cookies out of his reach.

Right, so no offense to the Irish Defense Forces, but I think we may want a nation with more then 1 active army division to deal with them until they disarm.
Which given the pace that seems to be happening, should happen sometime around the year 7,000.

 

[Gwyddelig]

Well yeah, you guys want it back in theory. Same as the Koreans all want Unification in Theory.
But if Britain suddenly said tomorrow "You know what? The republicans are right, it's yours now, ta-ta bye." I would guess the enthusiasm in the Dail might best be described as 'subdued'.
I mean, it would require almost the entirety of the IDF to keep order in Northern Ireland under good conditions. If they UDA or UDF started acting up (and IIRC they still haven't disarmed) It's questionable whether the IDF could even maintain it's military presence there.

Oh I'd say such a move would result in a fair degree of, "Sheet; WTH do we do now then?" head-scratching in the corridor of RoI power*. The IDF would probably do no better nor no worse than the British managed. That ssaid, most of the IDF's military experience is in managing very chanllenging peace-keeping missions, in which their reputation is very good internationally. The tricky thing there though is that we would hardly be viewed as impartial by your average Loyalist...

*We're a small country, we don't really need more than one corridor for our power

 

[ParkCungHee]

Oh I'm sure man for man the IDF would do it's job admirably. But it would need nearly every man on active duty at all times. No leave, no time for retraining and re-equipping. Or it would need to undergo a massive and rapid military expansion.
That's not even counting the welfare state support that N.I. gets from Great Britain. Either that's going to dry up, which probably isn't going to help matters or Ireland would have to bankrupt itself trying to keep that up.
It's just beyond the capacity of a nation of 4 million people.

 

[Traitorfish]

That's not even counting the welfare state support that N.I. gets from Great Britain.

Of course, I'm sure that at least some of that revenue originates in Ulster itself. Contrary to popular belief, the United Kingdom is not kep afloat entirely on the backs of the Southern middle class.

You're right, of course, it's simply beyond Ireland to increase it's population by almost half again, especially given this particular region's history. I'm sure they'll be ready eventually, but it's up to Britain, in the mean time, to fix things up. We ruined it in the first place, after all...

 

[ParkCungHee]

Of course, I'm sure that at least some of that revenue originates in Ulster itself.

Maybe now that things have settled down a bit, but even in 1968 Ulster was dependent on Britain for it's standard of living.

Contrary to popular belief, the United Kingdom is not kep afloat entirely on the backs of the Southern middle class.

No, you're right, Scotland and Wales have done their share to support Northern Ireland as well. But more money has certainly been going into Northern Ireland then has been coming out for as far back as the Welfare State existed.

 

[RedRalph]

We already pay for a small part of the North's running.

 

[Traitorfish]

Maybe now that things have settled down a bit, but even in 1968 Ulster was dependent on Britain for it's standard of living.

No, you're right, Scotland and Wales have done their share to support Northern Ireland as well. But more money has certainly been going into Northern Ireland then has been coming out for as far back as the Welfare State existed.

True, true. I suppose I just have a bit of an ingrained knee-jerk to the attitude, ever so commonly encountered in Britain, that it's only due to the hard work of the South of England that the rest of us aren't living out a slightly damper version of Mad Max.

 

[Lord Baal]

True, true. I suppose I just have a bit of an ingrained knee-jerk to the attitude, ever so commonly encountered in Britain, that it's only due to the hard work of the South of England that the rest of us aren't living out a slightly damper version of Mad Max.

You'll never live in the Mad Max world, you're not Australian enough. You'll all get nuked anyway, damn Northern Hemisphere types.

 

[ParkCungHee]

True, true. I suppose I just have a bit of an ingrained knee-jerk to the attitude, ever so commonly encountered in Britain, that it's only due to the hard work of the South of England that the rest of us aren't living out a slightly damper version of Mad Max.

Ah, I see. Guess it's just something I've yet to grow annoyed with living across the pond.

To be fair, even with the help of South England, Ulster very nearly WAS a damper version of Mad Max relatively recently.

 

[Shekwan]

What do you mean nearly? People carrying around M60s in wheelbarrows isn't Mad Max enough for you?