Jester's Final Prediction Thread

[Siptah]

@RedCourtJester UI can be deceptive. A screenshot with places for 13 civs or 15 dots in a row are hints for that amount of civs, but no proof. The UI could have been made to accommodate more than release, they might have tried in that specific build how it looks with that amount of symbols or dots, or the build might have included some DLC civs.

 

[Olleus]

I hate to say "I told you so"... but when someone was repeatedly stressing how confident they were, how logical and rational they were being, and saying that everyone who was warning them that their assumptions were wrong simply didn't understand the greatness of their work... maybe I love it. There's a valuable lesson to be learnt here about the dangers of believing your own wishful thinking.

 

[RedCourtJester]

I hate to say "I told you so"... but when someone was repeatedly stressing how confident they were, how logical and rational they were being, and saying that everyone who was warning them that their assumptions were wrong simply didn't understand the greatness of their work... maybe I love it. There's a valuable lesson to be learnt here about the dangers of believing your own wishful thinking.

You are welcome to gloat if you like, it was still a fun exercise for me. My confidence isn't totally shaken by Trung, just new evidence to account for. But I'm not updating my first predictions map, I think that was a solid go and will be interesting to compare to the final picture.

I think I will still keep weekly predictions going, though, which I now think truly are speculative to some degree and not just running down an expected list (although...I may have one lying around).

After some number crunching, I am going to predict Persia for Tuesday. I'll throw in, as related "reveals," Zarathustra as leader name-dropping Sasanids, and Gate of All Nations as the wonder reveal. Maybe a small chance at Norse (and Cnut and maybe Heddal Stave Church). Happy to see others' predictions.

Weekly reveal guessing thread is up here for anyone who wants to participate!

 

[Olleus]

You are welcome to gloat if you like, it was still a fun exercise for me.

Oh sure, and enjoying the exercise is an excellent reason for doing this! My only point was that one's confidence in predictions shouldn't be correlated with how much one enjoyed making said prediction. If anything, it should be anti-correlated: the less data one has to work with, the more one can have creative fun with it!

 

[RedCourtJester]

Oh sure, and enjoying the exercise is an excellent reason for doing this! My only point was that one's confidence in predictions shouldn't be correlated with how much one enjoyed making said prediction. If anything, it should be anti-correlated: the less data one has to work with, the more one can have creative fun with it!

We can, at least, agree that I was confident I was having fun in my predictions lol.

So, to start the other half of this thread (I have renamed it to be more aligned with what I hoped it would be at launch):

Any predictions for Tuesday's reveal? I think we can make a pretty safe assumption that most weeks will have some sort of reveal on Tuesdays. They seem to be loosely following "civ on Tuesday," and "wonders and leaders" in the following days of that week, but that seems fairly flexible depending on the goals of that week (and Con panel related stuff).

 

[Olleus]

So, to start the other half of this thread (I have renamed it to be more aligned with what I hoped it would be at launch):

Honestly, that's a pretty confusing thing to do IMO. Just starting a clean thread might be better (and will probably make the Mods happier). It's not like we're going to run out of space on the servers by having 1 more thread

 

[AntSou]

And there was that antiquity screenshot with 13 civs. I'm dubious about the semantics of "civ." It could mean architectural styles, it could even mean "leaders" (as representing "civs").

I don't want to dogpile on you as I used to spend a lot of time making wild speculation when I first joined (though I didn't have your level of commitment), but you come across as a bit too willing to accept the stretchiest of stretches, and the quote above is a good example of that.

It makes all speculation kind of worthless if you do not set smarter red lines.

A civ is just a civ. We all know what it means, there's no space for interpretation. Firaxis only ever says exactly what it means to say.

 

[RedCourtJester]

Honestly, that's a pretty confusing thing to do IMO. Just starting a clean thread might be better (and will probably make the Mods happier). It's not like we're going to run out of space on the servers by having 1 more thread

That seems fair, I will rename this again to separate it and then make a new weekly guessing thread.

 

[Xandinho]

And there was that antiquity screenshot with 13 civs. I'm dubious about the semantics of "civ." It could mean architectural styles, it could even mean "leaders" (as representing "civs").

Time for some wild speculation: We know there are two DLCs with 8 civs coming, and if we include the Shawnee, that brings the total to 9. If we’re getting an equal number of civs per era, that means we’re getting 3 new civs per era.

Perhaps that screenshot with the blurred icons showing 13 civs - where the 3 icons after Rome are still undefined - might already include the DLC civs. If that’s the case, considering the undefined icons, the three new civs would come alphabetically after Rome. Based on the wonders we know of, we can speculate two of them: Tonga and Silla. But what about the third? Maybe Teotihuacan? The Visigoths? Or perhaps some other civ that hasn’t been speculated yet?

 

[RedCourtJester]

Time for some wild speculation: We know there are two DLCs with 8 civs coming, and if we include the Shawnee, that brings the total to 9. If we’re getting an equal number of civs per era, that means we’re getting 3 new civs per era.

Perhaps that screenshot with the blurred icons showing 13 civs - where the 3 icons after Rome are still undefined - might already include the DLC civs. If that’s the case, considering the undefined icons, the three new civs would come alphabetically after Rome. Based on the wonders we know of, we can speculate two of them: Tonga and Silla. But what about the third? Maybe Teotihuacan? The Visigoths? Or perhaps some other civ that hasn’t been speculated yet?

Well if we are just looking at alphabetical stuff:

Yamatai/Wa and Wagadu still fit and would help Himiko and Amina a lot.

Xiongnu would work fantastic for a Turko-Mongolic expansion.

Sogdia would work for a Pashtun expansion.

Scythia would work for...whatever.

Wessex could work as an English antiquity civ, but I would personally prefer Mercia (and they might just be collectively "Angles" which I think is the fairest way of saying "Heptarchy." And by that logic, Saxons or Vandals could also still be in the running somewhere though I think "Goths" are just all around the best antiquity Germanic representation.

Not an exhaustive list, just what comes to mind.

 

[RedCourtJester]

I have a craaaaaaaaaazy new/updated theory. Crazy. Insane. Utterly insane. There is so much accidental symmetry to this idea it would be scary if true.

But I'm going to wait a few weeks to post it I think. I want to wait until we start seeing more exploration wonders to see if any of my predictions start coming true. Here's at least a shortlist of good indicators to me (or alternative wonders that might represent roughly the same civ/era):

* Trowulan (several options), Malbork Castle/Kopu Lighthouse, Fire Temple, Kilwa Kisiwani, Venetian Arsenal/Uffizi, Tran Quoc Pagoda, Janggieupseong (less sure about this specific wonder), Temple of Kukulkan (or Chichen Itza), and mayyyybe Aachen Cathedral
* (less implicating but still aligning would be something Portuguese like Torre de Belem or Byzantine like Hagia Sofia)
* Bonus!: Krak Chevaliers, Great Mosque of Silvan

But what I will say, is that it would suggest a whopping ~25 wonders per era, if not exactly 25 wonders per era prior to bonus content (Shawnee), at launch. Which...wouldn't be bad for the 7 wonders cultural challenge.

Semi-related tiny prediction: Gabarnmung. Just cuz I want it badly and the numbers might allow for it to squeak in, but it's okay if not.

I think we may start seeing a lot more exploration era footage as soon as October 29th, give or take, although that does depend on what is revealed over the next two weeks.

 

[FishFishFish]

Great Mosque of Silvan

I am curious why you would predict this mosque. The Great Mosque of Silvan is cool, but I don't think it would be very fitting as a wonder. I think there are less obscure mosques built in Anatolia around the same time period (like the Divrigi Great Mosque and Hospital for instance) that would be more wonderous.

 

[RedCourtJester]

I am curious why you would predict this mosque. The Great Mosque of Silvan is cool, but I don't think it would be very fitting as a wonder. I think there are less obscure mosques built in Anatolia around the same time period (like the Divrigi Great Mosque and Hospital for instance) that would be more wonderous.

I think we may see several great mosques, not just that one.

That one in particular would mean certain hypotheses could be true, though. I will tell everyone what I think it means if/after we spot it.

I will say that the two bonus wonders are not central to the crazy hypothesis, just a smaller prediction that could align with it or stand alone.

 

[Wabnosa]

I am going to say this, some may not like it. Maya to Shawnee should be an option.

 

[RedCourtJester]

I am going to say this, some may not like it. Maya to Shawnee should be an option.

I...predict that will absolutely be an option for both solo and multiplayer.

 

[Evolena]

But what I will say, is that it would suggest a whopping ~25 wonders per era, if not exactly 25 wonders per era prior to bonus content (Shawnee), at launch. Which...wouldn't be bad for the 7 wonders cultural challenge.

Remember, the Wonders goal is only for the Antiquity Cultural Legacy Path, each age has its own goals.

 

[RedCourtJester]

Remember, the Wonders goal is only for the Antiquity Cultural Legacy Path, each age has its own goals.

I meant specifically for antiquity!

However, I wouldn't be surprised if wonders were an option for victory in exploration or modern as well (or factor into it).

 

[Evolena]

I meant specifically for antiquity!

Ok, it wasn't clear as you mentioned the Shawnee

 

[chaosprophet]

But what I will say, is that it would suggest a whopping ~25 wonders per era, if not exactly 25 wonders per era prior to bonus content (Shawnee), at launch. Which...wouldn't be bad for the 7 wonders cultural challenge.

You mean in the base game, even though what we saw of the ancient tech tree would mean that is extremely unlikely?
By the way, I'm curious, why would you want that? we already got the release total number of civs, and when they add more civs they can always add their wonders too, so there is no need to have tons of wonders in the game already for civs only coming later on DLCs.

 

[FishFishFish]

I think we may see several great mosques, not just that one.

Sure, but I don’t think they’ll be picking too many built around the same area at similar times.