Jester's Final Prediction Thread

I would love her. But watch, it'll be Baldwin IV lol.

And the return of Gilgamesh, LOL.

(I hope not, I think we can do much better. Plus, female leaders of any sort get a bit of a leg up in opportunities so I think her odds are good.)
I'd be a little surprised. She's pretty obscure; I only know she exists because I took a class on the Crusades. While her story has "period drama" written all over it, I don't think anyone's done one on her like the dozens of period dramas on Wu Zetian, for instance.
 
We really need more American civs. Like in previous civs it was disappointing but in a game where you're expected to evolve your culture South American civs are going to be starved for options for a while. Hope we get something like Humankind's region oriented culture packs.
 
We really need more American civs. Like in previous civs it was disappointing but in a game where you're expected to evolve your culture South American civs are going to be starved for options for a while. Hope we get something like Humankind's region oriented culture packs.
Personal guess based on nothing except that it makes sense to me: the first two packs (Crossroads of the World and Right to Rule) will be focused on smoothing out the weirder gaps in the base game, but future packs will probably tend to be regionally themed (like Civ6's already were, interestingly). Expansions will probably have the usual mix of regions--perhaps followed by "smoothing" DLC again.
 
Teotihuacan I just don’t think there will be enough information for them to feel comfortable basing a Civilization around.
Is Teotihuacan really that unlikely? I don’t expect it in the base game, but I would be really happy to see it someday. And if they’re including the Mississippians, I think that opens the door for the inclusion of some obscure civilizations. I don’t expect things like the Olmecs or the Harappans, but I believe Teotihuacan is much better documented than those two.

I might be biased here, though, since Mesoamerica is a region of a huge particular interest to me. Either way, I hope they give us much more than just the Maya and the Aztec.
 
We really need more American civs. Like in previous civs it was disappointing but in a game where you're expected to evolve your culture South American civs are going to be starved for options for a while. Hope we get something like Humankind's region oriented culture packs.

Is Teotihuacan really that unlikely? I don’t expect it in the base game, but I would be really happy to see it someday. And if they’re including the Mississippians, I think that opens the door for the inclusion of some obscure civilizations. I don’t expect things like the Olmecs or the Harappans, but I believe Teotihuacan is much better documented than those two.

I might be biased here, though, since Mesoamerica is a region of a huge particular interest to me. Either way, I hope they give us much more than just the Maya and the Aztec.

Personal guess based on nothing except that it makes sense to me: the first two packs (Crossroads of the World and Right to Rule) will be focused on smoothing out the weirder gaps in the base game, but future packs will probably tend to be regionally themed (like Civ6's already were, interestingly). Expansions will probably have the usual mix of regions--perhaps followed by "smoothing" DLC again.

@sTAPler27 Bad news: I do think that we are getting dual "Spain" leaders at launch with Benito Juarez and Simon Bolivar (and no actual leader for exploration Spain yet), because they provide a necessary skeleton to build out that region. But, good news: I think that we will get a great three-or-four leader civ pack earlier down the line which will give us, quite likely, a full Mayan path with leader, Purepecha and leader, Muisca and leader, and Aztec and leader). Or something quite close to that, I think America will look great. Point being, @Xandinho , yes I do think Teotihuacan's odds are great.

(I'm also feeling out a Canada + Inuit -> Dene -> Metis path to better represent that region for even more America. It's one of the more difficult ideas because, unlike our likely Polynesian expansion progression, the Metis, Dene and Inuit likely arrived in exactly the opposite order they would want to naturally progress by "level of civilization," but maybe they could be symbolically reflecting on each other (the Inuit are "like" what the Metis would have looked like, or the Metis are "like" what the Inuit could have looked like) more than representing a literal progression. Also, I just can't think of a solid Canadian pathway other than Norse -> Normans, which Cnut is likely already claiming. Norse -> Holy Roman Empire/Franks/Carolingians -> Canada? Kiiiind of? So North America may manage to swing a couple civ leaders up there too.)

@Zaarin I semi-agree. I think Crossroads of the world is going to smooth out expectations of Assyria and Babylon, which won't be in base game because they don't "meld" as well with other civs to form the necessary infrastructure; you can definitely call that a "weird" gap by Civ standards, though. Right to Rule, I am less sure about; I don't really know where it is going to be located (I am pretty sure not "Aztec through Inca" territory, that begs for a bigger expansion on both the Mexican and Colombian paths simultaneously as noted above), but it isn't necessarily Gaul and Goths and HRE related stuff like people think. ACTUALLY, if I were to peg an obvious "gap" in my model that begs for fixing sooner than later, it would in fact be "Spain" since it has no leader. An expansion for that could be Al Andalus/Cordoba -> Spain -> Argentina and Al-Andalus -> Portugal -> Brazil, with Pedro I and San Martin as leaders, although I feel like I need to workshop that prediction better if that's the case because I would probably have expected Spain to progress to "New Spain," with an actual Spanish emperor, but that arrangement only adds 3 new civs. (and no, I don't think cutting Aztec -> Mexico or Inca -> Gran Colombia really works; we already have a Mexican wonder in the game and I don't know why they would release Al Andalus but not Portugal/Brazil in the same pack).

I think America and Southeast Asia are going to be the two regions they will most want to "fill in" first, with maybe Swahili Africa as a third region that just feels like it coheres together "less" than Amina's Songhai (which, although comfortably complimented by a Nubia -> Akan -> Ashanti civ or something Yoruban, stands perfectly fine on its own for now, whereas Swahili Coast is kind of begging for Mutapa -> Zulu and Abyssinia -> Ethiopia). I think especially Latin America needs to come sooner than later, so either I am expecting a "BIG" DLC pack for "building out the Maya, Muisca, Purepecha/Aztec," or otherwise a full expansion to come sooner than later. (which, I was speculating on at least one idea which the Mayans would reflect well: a new "defensive/isolationist/enduring" leader type, which they perfectly encapsulate, along with, coincidentally Vietnam in Southeast Asia and the Zulu on the Swahili Coast).
 
10 civs per era has been confirmed in the PAX- Australia livestream on at the moment, which should be useful for narrowing down the paths - we already know most of them!
I believe it was said 30, not counting the Shawnee, but no information of how many per era? Considering seems like later eras support more civs from info about MP, it may not be 10/10/10.
 
I believe it was said 30, not counting the Shawnee, but no information of how many per era? Considering seems like later eras support more civs from info about MP, it may not be 10/10/10.

This Vietnam/Trung reveal is wow. I personally am not a fan of tying Vietnam to Khmer, unless we are getting a modern Vietnam era. Majapahit is probably dead, Indonesia saved for expansions and Borobudur is a universal wonder for now. Rama V, extremely unlikely.

As for this "31 civs," I would normally say I'm dubious. Because 31 architectural styles that's roughly what it would take to represent all regions across the whole game, before we start doubling up. But also, we just got Trung Trac leading Khmer.

Ngl, huge blow. It's just one data point, not unsalvageable because Khmer -> Majapahit was always going to be a little stretch, but now if SEA has a pretty weak thesis, detractors may be correct that no region has a strong leader thesis at launch and better pieces are getting skipped. Seems another underlying rule is that they are trying to get as diverse styles of civs in the game at launch (if indeed they are strapped to as low a civ count as 31), regardless of plausible civ-paths.

Also, this still does not address why there are 13 civs in that leaked antiquity screenshot. I wonder if cuts were made.

I'll still be in this game a bit, will be curious to see if they are bluffing/underselling, and otherwise what "pieces" got cut (maybe it is Maya -> Inca -> Mexico at launch). A lot could still go according to predictions. But very interesting day.

I'm not updating my initial predictions post anymore though, so feel free to applaud or tear them apart as you like!
 
This Vietnam/Trung reveal is wow. I personally am not a fan of tying Vietnam to Khmer, unless we are getting a modern Vietnam era. Majapahit is probably dead, Indonesia saved for expansions and Borobudur is a universal wonder for now. Rama V, extremely unlikely.

As for this "31 civs," I would normally say I'm dubious. Because 31 architectural styles that's roughly what it would take to represent all regions across the whole game, before we start doubling up. But also, we just got Trung Trac leading Khmer.

Ngl, huge blow. It's just one data point, not unsalvageable because Khmer -> Majapahit was always going to be a little stretch, but now if SEA has a pretty weak thesis, detractors may be correct that no region has a strong leader thesis at launch and better pieces are getting skipped. Seems another underlying rule is that they are trying to get as diverse styles of civs in the game at launch (if indeed they are strapped to as low a civ count as 31), regardless of plausible civ-paths.
On the contrary. We've already seen the Majapahit/Indonesian symbol from Civ 6 behind Himiko during the Exploration Era.
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On the contrary. We've already seen the Majapahit/Indonesian symbol from Civ 6 behind Himiko during the Exploration Era.
View attachment 705900
Correct, yes I was realizing that.

So perhaps the path is still the same (Khmer -> Majapahit -> Siam), but unified under a different (in my opinion, vaguely thematic as "fiercely independent from China and India," but still kind of terrible compared to modern Siam representing that and Mandala cities) leader choice. Or otherwise, there is an additional Vietnam and Trung Trac on top of my base game speculations.

I could probably parse back the "Malian" and "Swahili" paths into one Amina leading Aksum -> Songhai -> Hausa, as ugly as Aksum into Songhai is (I guess they barely make sense under Amina).

I could even maybe condense South America into Maya -> Inca -> Mexico under...Simon Bolivar? Ew.

And I guess just cut Tongans and Maori for now and just release with modern Hawaiians from...Silla? Mayans?

I could see the overall picture still applying after DLC, but man are some ugly paths formed if we don't get more civs than 31. And frankly I don't know why, because the civs themselves are hardly more complicated than Humankind civs. How did they justify half of the Humankind roster at launch? How did they even expect to compete in the market? That is so, so, so bizarre.

And frankly, if the game does launch like this, it will indeed be as ugly and disconnected as I hear some of my detractors claiming it is. Horribly, horribly insensitive to Japan/Korea, Songhai/Aksum/Bugandans, Mayans and Incans, probably Polynesians.
 
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And I guess just cut Tongans and Maori for now and just release with modern Hawaiians from...Silla?
Looks like Silla won't be in the base game--based on clips we've seen in game, the last two Antiquity civs have to be Persia and Mississippians. Silla, Goths, and Assyria must be DLC civs.

How did they even expect to compete?
Considering how universally panned Humankind has been, I don't think competing with Humankind is even on their radar.
 
Look man, I hate to say it but there was no universe in which Firaxis could have lived up to the expectations you set for yourself. As soon as you get into “it will be the most culturally sensitive and dare I say magical release, you’ll see, I’m patient 🙂” based on gut-feeling… I mean, yeah, there was no other possible conclusion. Condolences, though,
 
And frankly I don't know why, because the civs themselves are hardly more complicated than Humankind civs.
This is simply not true.

Aren't Humankind Civs just one unit, one infrastructure, and one tiny ability?

It doesn't compare with the content in each civ for Civ VII, which when taken as a whole are walls of text longer than the ones in Civ VI.
 
Looks like Silla won't be in the base game--based on clips we've seen in game, the last two Antiquity civs have to be Persia and Mississippians. Silla, Goths, and Assyria must be DLC civs.
That’s assuming
1. There are 10 each era (instead of 8,7,15 or some other combination)… there maybe and it would make sense…but it’s not sure
2. The Mississippians aren’t in the DLC, revealing Tecumseh was using one bit of DLC that game might have had other DLC as well.
 
That’s assuming
1. There are 10 each era (instead of 8,7,15 or some other combination)… there maybe and it would make sense…but it’s not sure
2. The Mississippians aren’t in the DLC, revealing Tecumseh was using one bit of DLC that game might have had other DLC as well.

And there was that antiquity screenshot with 13 civs. I'm dubious about the semantics of "civ." It could mean architectural styles, it could even mean "leaders" (as representing "civs").

I just wish I had been able to watch the whole stream instead of going off everyone's secondhand accounts of what was said, but I'll do that later. It's not super important, it sounds like they said what they said and we do have to account for it without totally dismissing it.

I hope we don't have to see any more of this insanity now.

Not for a while! I'm gonna let this thread go dormant for a bit. I don't think speculation is totally killed, just severely crippled. While reveals could progress as I expected, I think there are good odds that they will wrap up with Persia and the Samoan/Tongan leader and move on to exploration reveals, and we won't have confirmation any further until quite some time later.

But, in the meantime, still keep an eye out for that Mississippian announcement (which will bring clarity to at least a couple things), and maybe some minor wonder reveals like Mosque of Silvan or Krak des Chevaliers.
 
The Mississippians aren’t in the DLC
I think that's a safe assumption; Firaxis has never been cagy or duplicitous in their marketing before.

I'm dubious about the semantics of "civ." It could mean architectural styles, it could even mean "leaders" (as representing "civs").
They were quite explicit: 31 civilizations, including the Shawnee. Not architecture styles. Not leaders.
 
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