Jester's Final Prediction Thread

On the contrary, they've been very specific about what is included in each pack. Tecumseh and the Shawnee includes...Tecumseh...and the Shawnee. :dunno: This is no different from preorder bonuses they've done in the past like Babylon (Civ5) and Aztecs (Civ6).
It does include Tecumseh and the Shawnee. But that is different from comprising Tecumseh and the Shawnee. If it were a patent, it would fail for vagueness and incompleteness.

I think the Right to Rule and Crossroads of the World packs are going to come with 12 civs each, personally. I know it says it’s gonna be 4 civs each, but imagine the delight on our faces when Ed Beach goes on Instagram live and says to us “aha, fooled you! We snuck a cheeky extra 200% of the civs we said there’ll be as a little treat for everyone who preordered!”

I actually thought about that and would love it if it were the case, but I do think that when they refer to "civ" it means "one era civ," as differentiated from leaders meaning "three civ paths." Mostly because so many of the regions we are seeing represented just lend themselves so well to approximately four civs building out two new leader pathways.
 
I think the Right to Rule and Crossroads of the World packs are going to come with 12 civs each, personally. I know it says it’s gonna be 4 civs each, but imagine the delight on our faces when Ed Beach goes on Instagram live and says to us “aha, fooled you! We snuck a cheeky extra 200% of the civs we said there’ll be as a little treat for everyone who preordered!”
More likely Right to Rule is an entire extra 2 games..an MMORPG and an RTS it just also comes with 4 civs and 2 leaders for Civ7 that fit the themes in the 2 “Right to Rule” games.
 
It does include Tecumseh and the Shawnee. But that is different from comprising Tecumseh and the Shawnee. If it were a patent, it would fail for vagueness and incompleteness.
Firaxis has never engaged in the kind of "ha ha! gotcha!" marketing you're describing. If they say Tecumseh and the Shawnee pack includes Tecumseh and the Shawnee, then we should expect Tecumseh and the Shawnee.
 
Firaxis has never engaged in the kind of "ha ha! gotcha!" marketing you're describing. If they say Tecumseh and the Shawnee pack includes Tecumseh and the Shawnee, then we should expect Tecumseh and the Shawnee.
And yet they didn't mention the Mississippians as a civ once in an hour livestream about the Shawnee. Some Hopewell mention with respect to the wonder and architecture, nothing much about Mississippians.
 
And yet they didn't mention the Mississippians as a civ once in an hour livestream about the Shawnee. Some Hopewell mention with respect to the wonder and architecture, nothing much about Mississippians.
Which means
1. The Mississippians are in the base game and they don’t want to confirm them yet

2. Mississippians are in one of the 4 civ DLCs and they don’t want to confirm them yet

3. That was Tecumseh in front of some other civs symbol. The Shawnee get unlocked through Maya, Tecumseh, ?or gameplay?
 
Lowland South America path:

Arawak/Taíno>Tupi/Guaraní>Brazil
Arawak/Taíno>Tupi>Guaraní
Rome>Portugal>Brazil
For the Indigenous peoples of Brazil, I’ve been thinking of something like this: Xinguans > Guarani > Brazil
Xinguans would be a blob of peoples who inhabit the Xingu Valley, with Kuhikugu as their associated wonder. If I were to choose a specific tribe, l'd go with the Kuikuro. I'd place the Guarani in the Exploration Age due to their interactions with the Portuguese and Spanish. The Tupi would be another option for Exploration, though it would be difficult to find an associated wonder for them. Finally, Brazil in the Modern Age.

Andean path:

Nazca/Caral>Inca>Colombia/Gran Colombia
Nazca/Caral>Inca>Mapuche
Rome>Spain>Colombia/Gran Colombia
I’ve been thinking that Tiwanaku might be the best option for Age 1 of the Andes. They were a very influential empire throughout the region (perhaps the most prominent before the Incas emerged). And they are most likely better documented than the Nazca or Moche. However, the Nazca is the popular option due to the Nazca Lines. Personally, I'd prefer to have both, but I don’t think we’ll be that lucky
 
Which means
1. The Mississippians are in the base game and they don’t want to confirm them yet

2. Mississippians are in one of the 4 civ DLCs and they don’t want to confirm them yet

3. That was Tecumseh in front of some other civs symbol. The Shawnee get unlocked through Maya, Tecumseh, ?or gameplay?

These are all other plausible explanations. I do not consider them more likely, however.

Also, aside, but the Viceroyalties of New Spain and New Granada split the Yucatan almost down the middle. Mexican Empire and Gran Colombia leaders make most sense at launch for both civs progressing from the Maya.
 
Good chances of a Mississippian reveal at PAX on Friday.
 
These are all other plausible explanations. I do not consider them more likely, however.

Also, aside, but the Viceroyalties of New Spain and New Granada split the Yucatan almost down the middle. Mexican Empire and Gran Colombia leaders make most sense at launch for both civs progressing from the Maya.
I still question the historical, cultural and geographical accuracy of a link between New Granada/Colombia/Gran Colombia and the Inca with the Maya to be a bit of a stretch in cultural and historical terms.
Inca to Colombia could work, but Maya to Inca is were the link might seem forced.

What I'm not questioning now is the possibility of your predictions coming from someone with more knowledge about the game from, shall I say, more direct sources of information.

Still, let's also hope we can have, probably with future DLCs, the possibility to go from Spain to Colombia/Gran Colombia and from Muisca to Colombia/Gran Colombia.
 
I just saw you predicted/anticipated that the Colombian wonder would be the Museo del Oro. That's very exciting for me as a Colombian architect, because it is one of the most iconic modernist buildings of Colombia and I met the architect who designed it. It would perhaps be the first wonder from the Modern Movement of architecture in the whole series.

However, even though I love the Museo del Oro as a building, I always dreamed of having the Torres del Parque as a wonder for a modern Colombian civ. It is perhaps the most iconic building in the country, together with the bullring that surrounds it. It also looks stunning and would look awesome as a Civ wonder. When people in Colombia itself think about modern Bogotá and modern Colombia, it is this very iconic building what comes to mind.
 
I still question the historical, cultural and geographical accuracy of a link between New Granada/Colombia/Gran Colombia and the Inca with the Maya to be a bit of a stretch in cultural and historical terms.
Inca to Colombia could work, but Maya to Inca is were the link might seem forced.

What I'm not questioning now is the possibility of your predictions coming from someone with more knowledge about the game from, shall I say, more direct sources of information.

Still, let's also hope we can have, probably with future DLCs, the possibility to go from Spain to Colombia/Gran Colombia and from Muisca to Colombia/Gran Colombia.

It's because you are still thinking of these individually as "defining" the whole civ. Maya in this path isn't being led by a Mayan leader. Inca in this path isn't being led by an Incan leader. It is the New Granada territory and legacy being led by Simon Bolivar.

I really don't have any direct sources. This has all just been me trying to discern how a game that looks so seemingly disparate at first announcement might actually make sense and won't alienate civ fans.

I do think that a Spain -> Spanish colonies will happen in some form, although I struggle to think about how a Spanish leader would choose between Mexico or Gran Colombia as the endpoint. What I think may happen is that when we get the Iberian DLC, it will proceed from Cordoba/Al Andalus along two paths, Spain and Portugal. The modern two civs will be Brazil for Portugal (Pedro I) to proceed to, and Argentina for Spain to progress to. I think it just barely works as Argentina feels more culturally successor to Spain, it parallels Brazil well, and San Martin at least was Spanish, unlike Benito or Simon. But it's still a little messy, and I haven't put much thought into how to make Spain -> Argentina more streamlined.

And then, I have a suspicion. My suspicion is that we have a normal modern "France," which will proceed naturally from Gaul -> Normans -> France when it happens. And Napoleon is getting his own "French Empire" civ, which was just so large and covered most of continental Europe that it doesn't seem fair for any one civ path to take priority; he can probably just pick from a set.

I think the Spanish may get a "Spanish Empire" civ, separate from Spain for Isabella (or Urraca) to just go ham with. Otherwise, I still think, if my "only one leader gets any two antiquity -> exploration or exploration -> modern civ combination" theory holds, we just run out of room for Imperial Spain to progress (as otherwise Rome -> Spain -> Italy is taken by Rome/Italy path, and Cordoba -> Spain -> Argentina is taken by Argentina/"Spain" path. Think of them as like "mega Civs" even, like a variant on the normal civ for that era. Normal France participates in Vercingetorix Gaul -> Franks -> France; French Empire participates in everyone's business.

I could see Britain being replaced by "British Empire" with a Victoria leader, as well (modern). I think we can get away with Portugal and the Dutch not having mega imperial forms, they only have one major colonial place they might progress toward. But I do think that normal Mongolia, progressing from Han -> Mongolia ->Qing under Kublai, will get a "mega Mongolia" empire under Genghis. And I think Greece will get a "mega Greece" under Alexander. Maybe mega Russia under the Soviet Union. And maybe, MAYBE a "mega Arabia" under Umayyads.

I think these will be special empires, and maybe even likely some sort of early access/preorder bonus for expansions. Mega-France (modern), Mega-Spain (exploration), Mega-Britain (modern), Mega-Greece (antiquity), and Mega-Mongolia (exploration), maybe mega-Russia (modern) and mega-Arabia (exploration). Not many, but it would keep progressions in the game fair because outside of those, the rest of the world stayed a lot more territorially condensed/related and forms more natural 3-civ pathways.

I just saw you predicted/anticipated that the Colombian wonder would be the Museo del Oro. That's very exciting for me as a Colombian architect, because it is one of the most iconic modernist buildings of Colombia and I met the architect who designed it. It would perhaps be the first wonder from the Modern Movement of architecture in the whole series.

However, even though I love the Museo del Oro as a building, I always dreamed of having the Torres del Parque as a wonder for a modern Colombian civ. It is perhaps the most iconic building in the country, together with the bullring that surrounds it. It also looks stunning and would look awesome as a Civ wonder. When people in Colombia itself think about modern Bogotá and modern Colombia, it is this very iconic building what comes to mind.

Wow! That is pretty. The Colombian wonder prediction is extremely uncertain for me, I am not very familiar with Colombian architecture. But I do like what it represents as tying back to Muisca history, which I think will help that region coalesce a little better. Still, would not be disappointed at all if we got Torres.
 
If Mississipians are in the game it doesn't necessarily imply a reveal any time soon.

I think it's more likely they'll show a diverse set of Civs from across the world.

Unless they are revealing all Antiquity Civs before moving on to Exploration Civs.

Yeah, like you said, the devs could set aside antiquity civs right now and move on to exploration civ reveals.

But, I kind of suspect not. I think the coinciding of all of this around Tecumseh week makes me think they might as well just reveal the next alphabetical civ after Greece, Han, and Khmer, which would just be the Mississippians. Base game or not, might as well just get them out of the way while we are on the subject of the Shawnee, because they are going to have to make a few extra reveals before launch anyway. (If they continued doing one each week, we would only get to 29 civs on the website, and I don't think anyone would call me a conspiracist to say that's too low. We are going to see either some additional reveals, or probably one or two new "bulk" reveals at the beginning of exploration and modern era reveals.

I think we may get something at PAX Australia, or otherwise know for certain what the plan is by next Tuesday. Most likely things I foresee happening:

1. Mississippians revealed sometime between today and Friday or on Friday, Norse/antiquity civ revealed next Tuesday.

2. Nothing revealed for the rest of the week, Mississippians or Norse/antiquity revealed next Tuesday and civs continue down the alphabetical path.

3. Nothing revealed for the rest of the week (or Mississippian reveal this week), then bulk exploration reveal Tuesday (I'd bet when we do get them, it's the same base paths as our starting 5 civs: Abbasids (Egypt), Ming (Han), Chola (Maurya), Spain (Rome), Swahili as a bonus (Aksum) with Fumo Liyongo reveal to kick things off.)

Note, importantly, that if it is option 2 or 3, and the Mississippians are not revealed in the order expected (and civs continue down a predictable reveal alphabetical reveal path), they are hiding something secret about the Mississippians.

Also, as I was typing this, it seems that Himiko leading Silla or Yamatai still works in alphabetical order, if she is planned to be officially revealed alongside her civ. Even more evidence that there is probably an alphabetical rule because she would otherwise have been on the website already.
 
It does include Tecumseh and the Shawnee. But that is different from comprising Tecumseh and the Shawnee. If it were a patent, it would fail for vagueness and incompleteness.
firefox_6ZZ9PeOv36.png

The description of the pack on the Steam page seems pretty clear to me. Also, just like with the other collections, if Firaxis wanted to have some surprise there, it would be much more likely to do like the collections and say something like "This content pack adds the Leader Tecumseh and three civilizations including the Shawnee!", to get people more interested in preordering for this larger pack, while keeping the mystery a bit longer about what would the others civs be until later when revealed.
 
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The description of the pack on the Steam page seems pretty clear to me. Also, just like with the other collections, if Firaxis wanted to have some surprise there, it would be much more likely to do like the collections and say something like "This content pack adds the Leader Tecumseh and three civilizations including the Shawnee!", to get people more interested in preordering for this larger pack, while keeping the mystery a bit longer about what would the others civs be until later when revealed.

And here is the page the preorder link from the official civ website leads to:


Tecumseh and Shawnee Pack.png


And this one has language more in line with what is actually on the official website. I'm honestly not sure where you are getting that page from, I can't find out how to get to that particular description.

More to the point, even if that description wasn't some Steam employee paraphrasing/inferring Firaxis-sanctioned language, it still is not exhaustive. It adds Tecumseh and the Shawnee. It could always add more than that.
 
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Tecumseh and Shawnee Pack adds the Tecumseh Leader and the Shawnee Civ. Period. Chaosprophet's screenshot is from the official description of the content of the Tecumseh and Shawnee Pack.
I think you can see it in the FAQ of the official site (where the game guides are).

Edit. I realize my answer may be quite harsh, or at least not smooth, but it pains me to see you so attached to what is certainly wishful thinking :undecide:
 
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There's a 50% chance of any three civs being released in alphabetical order though, so that's really no basis for a system of government predicting they are being released in alphabetical order.

Edit:

To be more clear, there's a 50% chance of 3 civs being released in descending or ascending alphabetical order.

There's technically no difference between the two, it could very well be chance that they are in ascending order.

3 civs isn't enough to constitute a reliable pattern.
 
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So IMO this is all very optimistic. Firaxis have launched with 18 civs the last 2 games. Not only have they pushed themselves into a situation where they compulsorily must release with more than that so people don't feel they are cutting content with the 3 age split, they also have considerably expanded the individuality of civs creating more work to design and balance them. There will be pressure from 2k to ensure they dont release with more than required on launch too so that there is plenty of DLC fodder.

There's a few factors which will affect what the number ends up being such as:

- civs in a standard game (now including per age) previous games have had a ratio of 2.25 civs on launch to a full standard game roster (18:8) barring preordained bonuses etc.

- sufficient options for civs to "evolve" into. Its looking likely every 1 civ will have 2 automatic options and others unlockable with certain criteria hit? Although it could well be some are exclusively unlocked through criteria being hit, at least on launch. Logically at least 1 civ must always be an option that isn't takeable by someone else so you don't get stuck without a next age choice, so id expect at least as many civs in each age, if not more in later eras.

So there are on a standard map 5 civs in antiquity, 5 in exploration and 8 in modern or 18 in total. Multiply by our game capacity:launch ratio and we get 40ish. I think it will end up being less than that as the sheer quantity on launch across the 3 eras will hide the lesser availability per age a bit, and with the extra individuality I think they will use that to justify a smaller ratio. 40 feels like the cap to me that they would go for if they were feeling generous.

Then there's what we know so far. From the features pinned thread:

We know about (or suspect) 8 (9) pre dlc civs in antiquity:

Rome
Greece
Egypt
Aksum
Han
Maurya
Maya
Khmer
(Mississippians)

We know about (or suspect) 7 (9) pre dlc exploration civs:

Normans
Songhai
Abbasids
Mongols
Ming
Chola
Spain
(Inca)
(Majapahit)
+ Shawnee DLC

We know about (or suspect) 4 (11) modern civs:

America
Buganda
Meiji
Mughal
(Qing)
(Siam)
(France)
(Britain/England)
(Mexico)
(Germany)
(Russia)

So on the principle that every civ in antiquity and exploration has 2 automatically triggered successor civs (based on historicity / regionality) we might have something like:

Rome > Normans / Spain?
Greece > Normans / ???
Egypt > Songhai / Abbasids
Aksum > Songhai / ???
Han > Ming / Mongolia?
Maurya > Chola / Majapahit?
Maya > Inca? / ???
Khmer > Majapahit? / Chola?
(Mississippians) > Inca? / ???

Normans > France? / Britain?
Songhai > Buganda / ???
Abbasids > ??? / ???
Mongols > Qing? / Meiji?
Ming > Qing? / Meiji?
Chola > Mughals / Siam?
Spain > France? / Mexico?
(Inca) > Mexico? / America?
(Majapahit) > Siam? / Maurya?
+ Shawnee > America? / ???
??? > Germany? / ???
??? > Russia? / ???

??Hawaii / Tonga?? Not sure where to put this

I feel like a lot of those would be controversial, but not outlandish given what weve seen so far with Egypt and the Normans...

And expressing it this way shows a few areas where we've got gaps at the min which may suggest more civs ie:

1) North/Central European antiquity civ (could this be thr Goths because of the Mausoleum of Theodoric?)

2) North American exploration civ from Mississippians / Maya, but maybe this is just Shawnee? Alternatively could be Aztec?

3) middle Eastern modern civ from abbasids, maybe ottomans?

4) second middle Eastern modern civ from abbasids, or possibly mughals?

5) second modern civ from Songhai, possibly into a middle Eastern civ, or another modern African one like kingdom of Benin or Zulu?

6) another exploration civ from Greece, could be a middle Eastern civ or maybe Byzantium? This might also feed into some of the suspected modern civs like Russia or ottomans if they pan out.

So thats 30 accounted for between confirmed and suspected civs I've listed above, + 6 I've mentioned takes us to 36. Maybe a couple of extra wildcards in there bringing us somewhere around 36-40 civs across all eras on launch. We may even know all the antiquity civs (barring mississippians) already.
 
2) North American exploration civ from Mississippians / Maya, but maybe this is just Shawnee? Alternatively could be Aztec?

They will (or at least should) make sure that the base game is not broken when not owning the Shawnee DLC. So I think, there will be another American exploration civ (not necessarily North American, though). Otherwise, there would be a problem if Maya and Mississippians are in the same game, because they cannot go both Inca. Aztecs fit the bill, but as we have no evidence, it could be anybody else.

Presumably, there are options for European civs to go into America and Spain into Mexico is also very likely. Especially with the Shawnee DLC, Mexico and America would be very crowded as destination for Exploration civs. So I think, there is going to be one more Modern American civ. Which one, is anyone's guess, though.
 
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