Labour and Tories both suffer setbacks

[ComradeDavo]

Both the Labour party and the Tory party suffered setbacks in the by-elections held on thursday.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5129524.stm

Labour and Tories suffer at polls

Labour has failed to win back a former stronghold in one by-election and been beaten into fourth in another.
Independent Dai Davies won the Blaenau Gwent seat in south Wales, which Labour lost in 2005 to Independent Peter Law when he overturned its 19,000 majority.

Meanwhile the Tories held Bromley and Chislehurst, in south-east England, but their 2005 majority was slashed from 13,342 votes to 633 by the Lib Dems.

Labour came fourth behind the UK Independence Party.

Labour party chairman Hazel Blears said Blaenau Gwent was a "unique set of circumstances" branding the situation in the Welsh constituency a "family feud".

She said Labour had not had enough time to turn it round from the general election but insisted the result was "coming in the right direction".

She said the Bromley result was an "absolute disaster" for David Cameron's Tories.

"What you've got here is a classic by-election with the Liberal Democrats campaigning really hard, they have a by-election machine," she said.

"And people vote tactically in by-elections, and clearly there was a move here to vote anything but for the Tory party so everybody got behind the candidate that they thought could beat David Cameron's nominee," she told BBC Breakfast.

'No confidence'

Conservative leader David Cameron said he was delighted Mr Neill had won even if the margin had been disappointing.

He blamed the Liberal Democrats for fighting a "negative, dirty campaign" that he said was bad for politics as it had put voters off.

"My impression is that very personal, very negative campaigning that the Liberals do - they often do it, they do it a lot and it is damaging and I think it is bad for politics. I think that probably had an effect. Obviously we will have a good look to see what lessons there are to learn," he told BBC News.

Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell praised his party's near-miss as a "stupendous result" in "one of the safest Conservative seats in the country".

"It shows that there is no confidence in Cameron's Tories in the Conservative heartlands," he said.

Sir Menzies added that the results in both Blaenau Gwent and Bromley were a "complete rejection of the Labour government".

It comes as a YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph suggested Mr Cameron is more popular than Tony Blair and that 6% more people would prefer a Tory government led by Cameron to a Labour one led by Gordon Brown.

Female-only shortlist

The Blaenau Gwent by-election was called following Mr Law's death in April. Mr Davies had been his election agent.

Mr Law, a former Labour Welsh Assembly member, produced one of the big upsets of last year's general election in winning the seat.

He had left Labour in protest at the introduction of a female-only candidates shortlist. He was diagnosed with a tumour during his election campaign and died this April.

Mr Law won the seat last year with a 9,000-vote majority.

In Thursday's Blaenau Gwent vote, Labour came second, with Owen Smith trailing Mr Davies by just under 2,500 votes.

Mr Smith said there was a need to "reach out to those people who left the party and try to heal some of the rifts that were here".

Bob Neill, who won in Bromley and Chislehurst for the Conservatives, replaces the late Tory MP Eric Forth, who had held the seat since its creation in 1997.

He received 11,621 votes, edging him just ahead of Liberal Democrat Ben Abbotts with 10,988.

Labour's Rachel Reeves was pushed into fourth behind UKIP candidate, MEP Nigel Farage.

Mr Farage said the result "sends a very loud message that it's time Mr Blair went".

Following his win, Mr Neill accused the Liberal Democrats of fighting their election campaign with the "most vigorous and underhand example of cynical personal abuse" that he had encountered in his 30-year political career.

He told them: "If you sometimes wonder why it is that people in this country are turned off by politics, get a mirror and look at yourselves."

Sir Menzies told the BBC News website members of his party had begun their campaigning before Mr Forth's funeral and before the writ had been moved calling the by-election in Bromley and Chislehurst.

He said he had intervened and stopped them.

He denied Mr Neill's accusation that his party had fought an unscrupulous campaign.

"If there had been any question of impropriety you can be certain I would have stepped in and stopped it," he said.

The Assembly election was won by Trish Law, widow of Mr Law.

BLAENAU GWENT
Dai Davies, Ind: 12,543
(-7,962 from 2005)
Owen Smith, Labour: 10,059
(-1,325)
Steffan Lewis, Plaid Cymru: 1,755 (+912)
Amy Kitcher, Liberal Democrat: 1,477 (-4)
Margrit Williams, Conservative: 1,013 (+197)
Alan Hope, Official Monster Raving Loony Party: 318
Turnout: 51.7% (-14.4%)

BROMLEY AND CHISLEHURST
Bob Neill, Conservative: 11,621
(- 11,962 from 2005)
Ben Abbotts, Liberal Democrat: 10,988
(+1,620)
Nigel Farage, UKIP: 2,347
(+872)
Rachel Reeves, Labour: 1,925
(-8,316)
Ann Garrett, Green: 811
(-659)
Paul Winnett, National Front: 476
John Hemming-Clarke, Independent: 442
Steven Uncles, English Democrats: 212
John Cartwright, Monster Raving Looney Party: 132
Nick Hadziannis, Independent: 65
Anne Belsey, Money Reform Party: 33
Turnout: 40.5% (-24.3%)

The Tories should be particuarly worried about the result in BROMLEY AND CHISLEHURST, as it seems alot of their voters stayed at home. They have tried to blame this on 'negative campaighning' by the Lib dems, which amuses me given the horriably dirty campaign the Tories fought her ein Bath in the general election, trying to blame our Lib Dem MP for the Bath Spa crisis despite the fact that it is a council issue and that the council is split, with Tories in key roles regarding the spa.

The real reason alot of their voters eitehr stayed at home or went to UKIP is that David Cameron is alienating alot of the right of the Tory party. The Lib Dems did pretty well, there votes up, whilst Labour's were way down.

In BLAENAU GWENT Labour should have expected it really, and should take it as another sign that Blair should go now to stop the rot spreading. After rejecting Labour at the general election i couldn't see many of their supporters returnign, and they didn't.

How I judge these results is that the Tory party aren't doing as well as everyone thinks they are, whilst Labour are doing as badly as everyone thinks they are! The Lib Dems are basically doing the same as how they were in the general election, they really should be capitalising more on Labour's ill fortune but I wouldn't complain too much given the scandals of late.

 

[flaming_iles]

I've said it before and I've said it again. Cameron is a FOOL!

Trying to be all things to all people is the stupidest thing a politician can do.

Thats why the tories stayed at home, if one of Cameron's A-Listers had been in his place, we would have lost the seat for sure.

 

[sysyphus]

Looks like all the major parties are taking a beating. Good for Britain to keep the big boys honest.

BTW, what is the UKIP, some kind of variation on the BNP?

 

[flaming_iles]

BTW, what is the UKIP, some kind of variation on the BNP?

UKIP or UK Independence Party is a party traditionally to the right of the Conservatives and to the left of the BNP. Their main aim to to remove Britain from the EU. I dont think they tolerate or are associated with the BNP.

 

[colony]

Looks like all the major parties are taking a beating. Good for Britain to keep the big boys honest.

BTW, what is the UKIP, some kind of variation on the BNP?

UK Independance Party. www.ukip.org/

anti EU, anti Immigration etc., nothing to do with the BNP

I'm not really surprised at how badly the Conservatives did though, although it is worse than I thought it'd be. It obviously hasn't taken long to realise there's not much to Cameron. Looking at those results I think the Lib Dems have a lot of work to do as well.

 

[Kan' Sharuminar]

They have tried to blame this on 'negative campaighning' by the Lib dems, which amuses me given the horriably dirty campaign the Tories fought her ein Bath in the general election, trying to blame our Lib Dem MP for the Bath Spa crisis despite the fact that it is a council issue and that the council is split, with Tories in key roles regarding the spa.

Meh, all general elections seem to be more about discrediting the other parties rather than, say, telling us what your policies are.

I suppose this is good news for the LibDems, which is good news for me.

I miss ol Charlie though

 

[Bozo Erectus]

When I see Blair and Cameron going at it in PMs Questions, its such an obvious mismatch. Cameron is a little dog nipping at the heels of a master politician and great historical figure. Im sure he cant wait till Brown takes over and the playing field is leveled somewhat.

 

[Cuivienen]

I, as an American, stayed up just to see the results in Bromley and Chislehurst. I care that much about how well the Lib Dems do. Aren't I strange?

Anyway, great news for the Lib Dems, poor news for the Tories, and Yet Another Disaster for Labour. I remember seeing polling from a week or so ago that suggested that Labour would retake the Blaenau Gwent parliamentary constituency (but not the Welsh Assembly seat, where Trish Law had the sympathy vote). Apparently, they declined in the last few days of the campaign. It really is appalling that they spent nearly 200,000 pounds on a 52,000 person constituency and still lost. It just shows that Labour has drifted far away from its traditional base, something that will come back to haunt them. They're in serious danger of a meteoric electoral collapse if they don't at least make overtures to the left again, though polls haven't reflected this yet.

What I think B&C shows best is that people who vote Labour will overwhelming change their vote tactically to the Lib Dems against the Conservatives rather than change to the Conservatives even (or perhaps especially) in Conservative heartlands. This bodes ill for the Conservatives, who will be trying to win back seats like Solihull and Eastleigh from the Lib Dems next election.

Also, Bob Neill's acceptance speech was perhaps the first time I have ever heard a "sore winner". But that's really the only thing you could call him.

 

[ComradeDavo]

I, as an American, stayed up just to see the results in Bromley and Chislehurst. I care that much about how well the Lib Dems do. Aren't I strange?

Well I stay up for American eelctions as well

What I think B&C shows best is that people who vote Labour will overwhelming change their vote tactically to the Lib Dems against the Conservatives rather than change to the Conservatives even (or perhaps especially) in Conservative heartlands. This bodes ill for the Conservatives, who will be trying to win back seats like Solihull and Eastleigh from the Lib Dems next election.

Thats always been the case, though I would say that in the past 5 years alot of those people who always supported Labour but tatically vote Lib Dems have been switching to become actual Lib Dem supporters, due to the Iraq war and sharing the Lib Dems values in regards to civil liberties. I think at the next election there will probably be alot more Labour voters tatically voting Lib Dem to keep out the Tories in many seats

 

[Bozo Erectus]

How would Labour voters voting Lib Dem keep Tories out of seats? Seems to me that any splitting of the vote would only help the Tories. Like the jackasses that voted for the Green Party in 2000 and helped elect Bush.

 

[bathsheba666]

How would Labour voters voting Lib Dem keep Tories out of seats? Seems to me that any splitting of the vote would only help the Tories. Like the jackasses that voted for the Green Party in 2000 and helped elect Bush.

It depends on the constituency.

In those where there is a large tory and liberal presence, the labour vote is essentially useless and counts for nothing...

..unless you use it to keep out the tory candidate, by voting liberal.

In another constituency, the mix may be different, and this would then be a dumb idea.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

It depends on the constituency.

In those where there is a large tory and liberal presence, the labour vote is essentially useless and counts for nothing...

..unless you use it to keep out the tory candidate, by voting liberal.

In another constituency, the mix may be different, and this would then be a dumb idea.

Ah ok, that makes sense. Are there many constituencies where Lib Dems have displaced Labour?

 

[ComradeDavo]

Ah ok, that makes sense. Are there many constituencies where Lib Dems have displaced Labour?

A few. In places like Scotland and cities like Manchester and Birmingham, there are alot of Labour vs Lib Dem battles. There are about 100 seats where Lib Dems are 2nd to Labour. But in places like the south west and rural areas, it's largely Lib Dem vs Tory.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

A few. In places like Scotland and cities like Manchester and Birmingham, there are alot of Labour vs Lib Dem battles. There are about 100 seats where Lib Dems are 2nd to Labour. But in places like the south west and rural areas, it's largely Lib Dem vs Tory.

Interesting, I guess the best thing that ever happened to Lib Dems was the advent of Blair and 'New' Labour.

 

[Cuivienen]

Thats always been the case, though I would say that in the past 5 years alot of those people who always supported Labour but tatically vote Lib Dems have been switching to become actual Lib Dem supporters, due to the Iraq war and sharing the Lib Dems values in regards to civil liberties. I think at the next election there will probably be alot more Labour voters tatically voting Lib Dem to keep out the Tories in many seats

I left out a "still" in there. That is, the Tories' popularity has not yet caused people to stop tactically voting against them, at least in the direction of the Lib Dems. I doubt that the Lib Dem vote would collapse in a by-election in a Tory-Labour marginal.

For example, I doubt a by-election in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (the only Tory seat in Scotland and a Tory-Labour marginal) would result in Lib Dems voting tactically for Labour.

 

[Cuivienen]

Well I stay up for American eelctions as well

You're crazy! As an American, "staying up" for UK elections meant midnight -- but American elections would have you, in the UK, up until dawn the next day.

Did you stay up for the CA-50 special election early in June? It was rather reminiscent of Bromley & Chislehurst.

 

[EdwardTking]

Contrary to what many cynics would have the world believe,
most people in the UK take their elections pretty seriously.

They want to elect an MP who will best represent their interests.

But the centralisation of power in both the Conservative and
Labour parties means they are increasingly reluctant to vote for
what they perceive as, more often than not, party stooges who
actually represent a 4 year quasi dictatorship by D Cameron/T Blair .

They correctly perceive that behind all the public relations and sales
pitch both David Cameron and Tony Blair look down upon them and
actually represent uncaring elites, big business and foreign interests.

For all its faults, the Liberal Democrat party has not yet succombed
to the soviet style, centralism of thou must conform to the party line.

Those voters of a centrist or liberal nature are therefore increasingly
inclined to vote Liberal Democrat in the hope that their MP will be
more free to represent them. Many inherently conservative nature
are similarly inclined to try out the UKIP (or even the BNP), and
those of a left or a revolutionary inclination try out Respect etc.

 

[ComradeDavo]

You're crazy! As an American, "staying up" for UK elections meant midnight -- but American elections would have you, in the UK, up until dawn the next day.

Did you stay up for the CA-50 special election early in June? It was rather reminiscent of Bromley & Chislehurst.

Well, staying up wise I mean more the presidential and mid-terms elections. Though I keep track of others when I awaken in the morning etc.

 

[Kan' Sharuminar]

Well, staying up wise I mean more the presidential and mid-terms elections. Though I keep track of others when I awaken in the morning etc.

As do I. I also always watch the UK General Elections. Why, last time I was happily playing Civ2 with the TV on in the background.

 

[Cuivienen]

Those voters of a centrist or liberal nature are therefore increasingly
inclined to vote Liberal Democrat in the hope that their MP will be
more free to represent them. Many inherently conservative nature
are similarly inclined to try out the UKIP (or even the BNP), and
those of a left or a revolutionary inclination try out Respect etc.

My impression is that the BNP is actually appealing to disgruntled voters on the left rather than the right. That is, poor, white, working-class families that supported Old Labour policies during the 1980s and have become strongly distrustful of all three major parties for their abandonment of statist-socialist views. Thus, they're for big government and government economic control, but very much afraid of social change. The BNP is actually far to the left on economics.