leader drought

[sumthinelse]

I have had a string of 100 elite unit victories without producing a leader, after producing 3 leaders in approximately 50 elite victories (yes, I am sure I don't have one now -- used them all!).

I know that such a thing is possible, but.... The odds of throwing 11 on a pair of dice is 1/18. If I threw the dice 30 times and I didn't get 11 on any of the throws I would not think that was unusual. If I threw the dice 100 times and 11 did not occur, I would begin to suspect that I don't have the same dice I was using a little while ago. I wonder if there are times in the game where it decides you have been producing too many leaders and does not generate leaders for a while?

What are the odds of an event with probability 1/16 NOT occurring in 100 tries?

 

[BlueMonday]

About one in seventy five.

 

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by BlueMonday
About one in seventy five.

Thanks, BlueMonday.

What is the formula for the general case?

We are starting to get on the edges of the bell curve here. The game may "think" I have a leader, HAS_LEADER flag not cleared somehow....

 

[Lt. 'Killer' M.]

You sure you didn`t have a leader sitting around somewhere unused? Cause then you can`t get a second while he`s around.....

 

[sumthinelse]

The odds are lower than 1/75! Since the probability of note getting a leader on a single victory is 15/16, the the chance of doing it 100 times in a row is (15/16) to the 100th power, a number between 1/1000 and 2/1000.

Killer, the 1st thing I checked was whether I had a leader. Neither the mil. advisor nor I can find one. But the program probably thinks that there is one. I wish there was a tool that displays all the fields in a saved file.....

 

[sumthinelse]

I was playing the Russians and the last leader's name was Stalin. Maybe that name was born under a bad star (a red one) but now they made that "improvement" in 1.12f so that .bic changes don't work after the first time, so I can't change that name in this game.

I retored the game before Stalin was created. Then I created him and disbanded him. Still couldn't create a new leader after that. Used him to hurry a different wonder in a different city. Still couldn't create a new leader after that.

The name after Stalin in the .bic file is Lenin, but it seems that I can't create a fourth leader no matter what I do. Based on my experiences with loading a 1.17f game into the 1.21f patch, I would say: Don't be surprised to see some paranormal phenomena, or bugs, depending on how you want to look at it.

 

[Lt. 'Killer' M.]

Originally posted by sumthinelse

Killer, the 1st thing I checked was whether I had a leader. Neither the mil. advisor nor I can find one. But the program probably thinks that there is one. I wish there was a tool that displays all the fields in a saved file.....

Aaarrgh! Then it really must be a 1.21 conversion thing

I feel sorry for you, if you have a good game going and now you can`t play on properly - that su*ks!

 

[TheNiceOne]

sumthinelse is correct that the formula is (15/16)^100, which is 1 in 635.

This means that if 635 players won with 100 elite units each, you should expect that one player came out without a leader.

So not getting a leader doesn't necessarily mean that something is wrong (although I don't guarantee this), but may mean that you just have bad luck.

BTW, I've continued a 1.17 game with 1.21 and received leaders.

 

[Zachriel]

There's a thousand people on this forum. It was bound to happen that someone would have a 1/635 streak of bad luck. But past bad luck is not an indicator of future luck, so keep on playing. Or try a militaristic civ.

 

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by TheNiceOne
sumthinelse is correct that the formula is (15/16)^100, which is 1 in 635.

This means that if 635 players won with 100 elite units each, you should expect that one player came out without a leader.

So not getting a leader doesn't necessarily mean that something is wrong (although I don't guarantee this), but may mean that you just have bad luck.

BTW, I've continued a 1.17 game with 1.21 and received leaders.

Now it's at least 140 elite victories without a single leader. That makes .000119, one in 8395. It's possible I'm just having bad luck, but I don't think so. I think that something happened to make the probability zero or damn near zero.

After loading the 1.17f game in 1.21f I did get leaders for a while but now, 140 and counting....

 

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by sumthinelse


Now it's at least 140 elite victories without a single leader. That makes .000119, one in 8395. It's possible I'm just having bad luck, but I don't think so. I think that something happened to make the probability zero or damn near zero.

After loading the 1.17f game in 1.21f I did get leaders for a while but now, 140 and counting....

I would guess you either have your facts wrong (you seem to know what's going on ), or you need to reinstall the game, or you really are very, very unlucky. Wanna play poker sometime?

 

[Zachriel]

Press F3. Sort by unit type. Look for a leader. If you find one, that is your problem.

 

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by Zachriel


I would guess you either have your facts wrong (you seem to know what's going on ), or you need to reinstall the game, or you really are very, very unlucky. Wanna play poker sometime?

I am happy to report that I produced a leader on the 155th attempt. The odds of that are 1/22103! This may be a record, but then again maybe not everyone notices how long it takes. I think it's possible the game was out of whack for a while, but now it seems OK!

 

[sumthinelse]

"Leaders can arise when an elite unit wins a battle." - civilopedia. "can" arise. maybe. I have never seen a leader
created when I kill the top unit of an enemy stack. Has anybody ever seen a leader generated in that manner? Maybe the game does not know where to put a leader in that case. Also, if you take a town of size one the game generates a captured enemy worker but seems to NEVER create a leader in that case. The best chance seems to be to attack a single unit (not stacked) in the open.

There may be other situations in which an elite victory cannot produce a leader. My elite units have killed 200 Zulu Impi (when I had no leader) without creating a single leader! Odds: about 1 in 400000! When I attack Zulu archers and warriors I get leaders except in the cases stated above.

Has anybody ever generated a leader by killing a Zulu Impi?

My friends, help me to observe what conditions allow or prevent leaders.

 

[sumthinelse]

Maybe I could turn this experience into something good! Do you think the Weekly World News (sorry, you international readers, it's one of those cheap magazines in the USA with sensational stories, e. g. "Woman Falls in Open Manhole into Arms of Amorous Male Gorilla." You can buy it at the grocery checkout) would buy my story for $50000? "CIv3 Fanatic has 155 Elite Victories Without Creating a Leader! .... 'I felt like Ken Griffey Jr. if he didn't hit a home run in 2 months,' says Civ3 Fanatic sumthinelse.... Another Civ3 fanatic, Killer, commented, 'That just s**ks," with a tear rolling down his cheek.... but it looks like sumthinelse might be coming out of his slump now.' "

If I can sell this story maybe Killer can sell his about the temple: "Civ3 Temples Cause Miracles!.... Killer reported,
'After I built the temple, my galley didn't sink on an ocean square. And then the next day, my boss gave me a big raise. I have a friend who built a temple, and after that he sobered up, stopped cheating on his wife, and his mother-in law moved out....' "

There must be hundreds of astounding Civ3 stories our Fanatics could tell.....

 

[damunzy]

@sumthinelse

I received only 1 GL in my current game in which I am playing the Iriquos. It is pretty frustrating in some games, other games I get many GLs. Firaxis has a weird way with numbers and chance.

 

[Dell19]

In my latest game, it seems that I only get a great leader when I start a new war. Each time I have started a new war I have recieved a new great leader pretty soon after. I have had 5 great leaders and I used them all before the war ended in each case.

 

[etj4Eagle]

Originally posted by sumthinelse
"Leaders can arise when an elite unit wins a battle." - civilopedia. "can" arise. maybe. I have never seen a leader
created when I kill the top unit of an enemy stack. Has anybody ever seen a leader generated in that manner? Maybe the game does not know where to put a leader in that case. Also, if you take a town of size one the game generates a captured enemy worker but seems to NEVER create a leader in that case. The best chance seems to be to attack a single unit (not stacked) in the open.

There may be other situations in which an elite victory cannot produce a leader. My elite units have killed 200 Zulu Impi (when I had no leader) without creating a single leader! Odds: about 1 in 400000! When I attack Zulu archers and warriors I get leaders except in the cases stated above.

Has anybody ever generated a leader by killing a Zulu Impi?

My friends, help me to observe what conditions allow or prevent leaders.

Yep I have had a leader generated in taking out the top unit of a stack.

 

[Graeme the mad]

I was pretty sure you couldnt get a leader from the top of a stack - I always send elite units into cities last because of this.

Where did the leader appear eagle?

 

[Sixchan]

I destroyed 11 civs on my way to conquest victory, and didn't get a leader!