There are like 6 regulars here and they’re all very opinionated. I wouldn’t mistake anything you read here as the majority opinion of anything.
The most true thing I've seen anyone write.
I think probability based water exploration is completely out of the question. No one wants to hear that their vessel just made a bad roll so you have to build a new one to finish exploring.
Ideally, water stuff overall needs some kind of complete overhaul - maybe one that lets you pay more production for a more equipped ship.
For example, by default, your medieval ship is able to explore all coastal tiles and maybe 2-3 ocean tiles without a constant attrition.
However, if you spend more production/gold on your ship, it comes equipped with more "Supplies" (represented by a maximum amount for that ship).
Then, it's able to cover maybe 5-6 ocean tiles without attrition.
Ships with more supplies produce more money when plundered by Privateers, they might be slower (depending on balance), and the more ocean tiles they cover, the more supplies they use.
At a port, you might be able to refill supplies at a set Gold cost.
Next: for trade
Trade ships come with a Supply cost consideration, which eats into their overall profit.
This would be balanced by how much more profitable a certain trade route could be, which adds a lot of agency.
Next: for transport
Perhaps embarking could only move you on coastal tiles by default (for convenience) - but transport over Ocean should require climbing on board to a proper Ship.
This would take up the space would take up for Supplies, so you have to manage.
What do you guys think?