tR1cKy said:
3) Let E, P(E) and T as above. Let S be a work variable which initially has a value of 1 (100%). This variable will be used to store probability of past events (or sequences of them). This is a little complex trick, but easily understandable with an example.
Let's take T=0.01, or 1%, as above.
a) my first legionary lose to a spearman. Chances are 18.6%. S takes the value:
S*0.186=1*0.186=0.186.
Now S>T. The event is allowed to occur and my legionary is killed.
b) my second legionary lose again. Chances are again 18.6%. S now is:
0.186*0.186=0.035.
Once again, S>T and my second legionary follows the first in heaven
c) my third legionary lose. Chances are the same. S now is:
0.035*0.186=0.0064.
Now S<T. Event is forbidden, the legionary wins despite the roll and S is reset to its initial value of 1.
That's all.
My 0.02
tR1cKy... i find ur idea quiet good and innovative... u defnitly got a good point there
though i don't know if this could actually get implemented without causing 'exploits' : the problem with it is that, after u get unlucky 1 or 2 times in a row, u'r sure the 3rd time u won't.
The problem is that, in some cases, you are SURE you will win a certain battle, if u wait for a couple defeats beforehand... wait for S to lower enough, then attack with your strong unit so that T is quiet high so that T>S for sure. If only one battle with a particular unit is really important for you, then u would attack with other units in the same turn, and when u get an unlucky streak, immediatly play the important battle 'coz ur quiet sure u'll win
i hope u got my point
anyway, i think you are totally right about anything : 1 strong unit loosing to a very weak one is maybe not so probable, but could and SHOULD happen (so that the game is not linear...) and i personally think it is quiet realistic... i mean look at it this way : a tank attacks a weak warior in the woods... the warrior only got a stone axe... then the tank falls short on fuel, or whatever... the warior manages to get beside it without beeing detected, and then on top of it... he opens the hatch...
OK, this is quiet (a lot) unprobable, but i think u got my point...
but the good point about ur theory is that it prevents the bad luck from occuring many times in a row, THAT beeing what breaks the fun
a little suggestion (i'm not at all a mathematician or a programmer though) : instead of comparing T to S in that way, and preventing radically the legionary to loose the third time, maybe u could get like a bonus% on the attack rate if u just lost, that % beeing higher if the last defeat wasn't much probable...
Explanation (here comes the tricky part

) :
Let A be the effective attack rate taken into consideration : it could be
A = T*(1+S) ; and S = (0.5 - Z) with Z beeing the probabitlity of the last battle to be
lost for that player.
If last battle had a 50/50 chance to be won, then S = 0.5-0.5 and A=T, probability not changed.
If the last battle had 75% chance of beeing won but was still lost, then Z=25%
S = 0.5 - 0.25 = 25, A = T(1+S) = 1.25*T and u have more chance of winning
For that to be a "history" of a couple last battles, u could make S = oldS+(0.5-Z) that way u take all last battles in consideration
to continue with the same exemple : let's say the second battle was still lost and A compared to the defense shows that the attacker had a 80% probability to win. OldS was 25%, ans Z is now (100-80)=20% ; that makes S = oldS+(0.5-Z) = 0.25+(0.3)=55%, the attacker gets a 55% bonus this time instead of 25%. It becomes even less probable that he looses again...
You could also let S go negative, so that u have quiet a bad luck after a couple very lucky strikes (i mean if you just defeated 10 tanks with a single spearman, even though you wouldn't complain about it, it would be bad also

)
To continue with the same logic... u could make this work also for the defensive value. that way the combat system would somehow compare the differential luck of the antagonists (and then the effective defense would be D = basedefense*(1+S)...)
You could also reset S once in a while (like at the begining of the player turn) although i personally wouldn't like it
and finally, one last thing... you could make each player have a different S towards each enemy on the battlefield (to reduce exploits) : if you have been unlucky latly against germany, you will get a battle bonus only against them but not also against the egyptians who u have never warred with...
And for the "Role Playing" part of this : the next time the tank is likely to encounter a warior, they would have learnt to always keep their fuel tank full, and so they are less likely to loose again
Anywayz, i hope this helps...
sorry for my bad english (i'm from France

) i just hope it didn't make things even more uncomprehensible, and PLEASE forgive me for my grammar errors
ZiP!
PS : i think that one can say that, for a first post, it's quiet a long one
