My tests showed that Hatshepsut was more likely to win by Domination, and then maybe a toss-up between Spaceship and Cultural. That dynamic resulted from Elizabeth taking nearly every wonder and religion, and Hatshepsut being left with opportunities to wipe out the villains in 1v1s. More than anything/anyone else, she reliably took second place, so I am a little disappointed she couldn't get 1-2 points at least!
I do think Montezuma needed the points almost as badly as Hatshepsut, but winning with Pacal came as a surprise. I only had two games where they even survived to the end together, and in the first Pacal won with Catherine in second. Reinforces the notion that second is almost always up for grabs. In the other game, Catherine was first to die on T243, and Elizabeth won Diplomatic(!) twenty turns later before the Aztec-Maya front resolved. The variance on some of these games is just wild...