N. Korea Threatens to Abandon Armistice

[SSG Paul]

Just wondering what the general thoughts were on this.
The US/Korean militaries DO think that N. Korea could attack if all other options (blackmail) didn't work to get their relief aid, though I'm sure many will disagree with this. N. korea is definately more dangerous than Iraq. This latest threat is because N. Korea says the US is building up their forces in the area.



http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030218/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_armistice_6

 

[napoleon526]

This is just saber-rattling from Kim. If he attacks the south, It's very unlikely that the Chinese would back him up like in '51. Without outside help, there's no possible way he could stand up to the US forces.

 

[Toasty]

Who cares about the old coot?

Such threats don't even deserve to be taken seriously...

 

[SSG Paul]

The thought process by the military is if Kim doesn't get what he wants, and he starts running very low on resources to the point that he can't keep the military functioning, war could be used as the last resort. Go out with a bang, rather than just wimper away.
Though I do agree with the saber rattling, which has worked in the past. What if his demands are not given into?

 

[SunTzu]

The surprise attack by the chinese in the Korean War was the only thing that helped the North Koreans, and they won't get any outside help a second time around.

 

[Greadius]

How come when Bush rattles its sabers, millions of people gather in protests; but when Kim Jong Il rattles his sabers, we dismiss it as showboating?

They're oppertunists. This may be the best one for a forceful reunification they're going to have.

 

[Alcibiaties of Athenae]

JUST A WARNING TO SOME PEOPLE:

If this thread "mysteriously" turns into an Israeli thread, or an attempt to attack the US, as the last one did, posters will be banned, instead of the thread simply being removed.

This thread is about North Korea, comment on THAT.

Thanks for your time.

 

[Archbob]

Actually the Chinese are not on the N. Korean side this time around.

 

[muppet]

Originally posted by Greadius
How come when Bush rattles its sabers, millions of people gather in protests; but when Kim Jong Il rattles his sabers, we dismiss it as showboating?

Everyone who is anyone takes Bush seriously.
No one takes Kim seriously.

Think of it as a compliment.

 

[JollyRoger]

I guess this rules out North Korea allying with the U.S. against Iraq or with the Israelies against the Palestinians. It would be mere sabre-rattling if certain military resources weren't already extended on multiple warfronts and thus presenting a delusional madman with the illusion that he can do more than rattle his sabre. Won't be pretty for either side of the pennisula if he tries anything, but somebody would realize the folly of their delusional ways. Probably it would be the Korean delusional madman that would be realizing his folly.

 

[muppet]

What do you mean the Chinese are on N.Korea's side this time?!

Why on earth would they be on the side of a real loony toon? Don't they realize that a loony with a nuke (or big army) is real dangerous?

 

[wtiberon]

The Japanese did some saber rattling of their own threating to invade N. Korea if they attacked South Korea. China has no choice to but to back the U.S. since we are their number one importer and exporter...if they lose us they lose their economy. South Korean citizens have begun to change their tune after a little education and now have staged rallies in support of U.S. troops. Russia will either support us or provide no obstruction so either way they will not be problem. Remember in the first Korean war we at one time controlled the entire peninsula until about 4 million chinese invaded and drove us back so their military should prove no problem...the only wildcard is the nuclear weapons and if we could disable those by precision strikes an invasion will pose no problems.

 

[Archbob]

I meant to say not.

 

[allan2]

Originally posted by JollyRoger
I guess this rules out North Korea allying with the U.S. against Iraq or with the Israelies against the Palestinians. It would be mere sabre-rattling if certain military resources weren't already extended on multiple warfronts and thus presenting a delusional madman with the illusion that he can do more than rattle his sabre. Won't be pretty for either side of the pennisula if he tries anything, but somebody would realize the folly of their delusional ways. Probably it would be the Korean delusional madman that would be realizing his folly.

I was at a friend's house last night and we were discussing this very thing. North Korea could be a real wild card in the next few weeks or so. With much of the 7th fleet likely over in the Gulf, they could see that situation as the best opportunity they've had in a long time to pull something. Not saying they'd win, I highly doubt it, but they may feel they have a shot--and either way, Seoul would be toast within 36 hours or so just from artillery fire. It wouldn't be pretty. Just another something for our strategists to consider....

 

[wtiberon]

Remeber also that the U.S. has been planning for a N. Korean attack since the cease fire (technically we are still at war since no peace treaty was ever signed). I had alot of friends who had to spend a year of their enlistment in Korea and they say they would do invasion scenario excercises almost every month. With 50 years of preperation I'm sure that they are prepared for anything (short of nuclear weapons).

 

[Greadius]

Originally posted by muppet
Everyone who is anyone takes Bush seriously.
No one takes Kim seriously.

See, I don't get this. They both look like baffoons, they can't speak coherently, they're priveledged recovering alcoholics following in their fathers footsteps/shadow... what has Kim done to be taken less seriously? Why do we just assume he's not going to do anything, but we assume Bush is going to invade no matter what?

Its an odd double standard. Especially considering Kim's culture of invincibility and infallibility. Here is a man who has been told for 50 years that he can do no wrong by everyone around him, and as part of a religious doctrine needs to reunite the Korean peninsula under HIS leadership with the possible oppertunity (weaking American ability to defend N.Korea as a result of Iraq ect.) to do so that may never present itself again.

Originally posted by wtiberon
Remember in the first Korean war we at one time controlled the entire peninsula until about 4 million chinese invaded and drove us back so their military should prove no problem

I don't consider 33,686 dead 'no problem'.

Plus there is a lot more to be damaged this time around. South Korea is the 13th largest economy in the world. The type of devistation caused would go much deeper than simply lives lost. Economically speaking, they'd do less damage invading Russia than South Korea.

 

[allan2]

Originally posted by wtiberon
Remeber also that the U.S. has been planning for a N. Korean attack since the cease fire (technically we are still at war since no peace treaty was ever signed). I had alot of friends who had to spend a year of their enlistment in Korea and they say they would do invasion scenario excercises almost every month. With 50 years of preperation I'm sure that they are prepared for anything (short of nuclear weapons).

I was in the Navy's 7th Fleet, on the U.S.S. Independence (the fleet's carrier at that time) out of Yokosuka, Japan, so I know about scenario planning for such eventualities (as a QM I aided in the voyage planning for such a contingency, and I also worked with OSs (operations specialists). Yes we are prepared. The question is, will Kim Jong Il feel too confident, out of the perception that we're "too occupied" elsewhere? Because even in our winning, a lot will be lost, if he attacks. I hope like hell it doesn't happen.

 

[wtiberon]

Originally posted by Greadius


I don't consider 33,686 dead 'no problem'.

Plus there is a lot more to be damaged this time around. South Korea is the 13th largest economy in the world. The type of devistation caused would go much deeper than simply lives lost. Economically speaking, they'd do less damage invading Russia than South Korea.

Oh how we continue to underestimate the U.S. military.

In the original Korean war the N. Koreans were aided by the Chinese and the Soviets with men and finance (the Soviets flew the fighters dressed as N. Korean pilots) . My whole argument of a "no problem" war hinges on the fact that we can destroy or neutralize his nuclear weapons. Also we would have to do a pre-emptive strike to destroy missile silos and artillary batteries that are aimed at Seoul. Other than that they don't have the motivation (remember his people are starving) or the production to sustain a war longer than a couple of months.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

IMO just another attempt at blackmail by NK. They're timing it perfectly to tie in with the current intl uncertainties, for a better chance at success.

Solve the Iraqi mess, focus full attention on NK, and I'd really like to see them trying the same antics again...

As for China, though they don't want the Koreas to go to war, they also don't want NK to 'fall'. They definitely don't want the US to come up all the way to the Yalu river and stare into Manchuria. The Chinese probably won't support or participate in an attack into SK, but there's a serious chance they'll join in, on NK's side, in the event of a SK counterattack that'd seem to destroy NK.

 

[Toasty]

@Greadius: Simply put, Bush is a lot more powerful man. We trust in our military's capability to defend itself against 3rd world powers, however militaristic, especially those like the NK army which would fight a "WWII style" war. We can't have that kind of assurance with Mr. Bush.