NCAA Football Thread - 2024

Quintillus · Nov 5, 2024

Wow, that is a lot of edits! You know it's okay to post again in the same thread if it's been a few days and there's something noteworthy to comment on? Double-posting can be an indicator of spam, but doesn't automatically mean there's spam.

So, the votes that everyone's been waiting for this week are in - the College Football Playoff votes. They mirror the AP Poll pretty closely, Georgia/Ohio State is the only difference in the top 13, and that's super-close in the AP, too.

But the Committee is really not keen on Army. 18th in the AP, 25th in the Committee. Looks like they'll have to beat Notre Dame to get respect.

That puts Boise State (12), Wazzou (21), and Army (25) as the top non-Power-Four schools in the committee's ranking. Boise State already beat Wazzou. It's certainly possible that we could see more than one Group of 5/Pac-12 school if Wazzou or Army wins out and gets a bit of help - unlikely for Army unless than can win over Notre Dame, certainly within the realm of possibility for Wazzou.

Indiana is the top-ranked team from Indiana and Brigham Young is the top-ranked team from Utah... what a year.

ummmm........ · Nov 6, 2024

Remember WSU is in the same boat as ND, they can't get in as the fifth conference champ, only as an at large . . .

EDIT: And I like the edits, they make me happy. When I double post it makes me feel like I'm talking to myself ; p

Four relevant games this weekend: Alabama/LSU, loser is out. Clemson, Colorado and Ole Miss also face potential elimination. This assumes two-loss P4 teams are in and three loss teams are out. In reality one or more three loss P4 teams will likely fill slots due to a shortage of teams with two or fewer losses, but there will be far far far more three loss teams that don't make it so it seems like as fair a line to make as any . . .

EDIT EDIT: Would-be BCS is out and the only differences in the top twelve are Indiana and Tennessee are flipped at 7 & 8 and SMU and Boise are flipped at 12 & 13. Committee is such a waste of time, they're only there to make sure Alabama gets in over FSU ; p

Daniel Boone · Nov 6, 2024

I was looking forward to the Mizzou vs Oklahoma game this weekend, but with how both teams seasons have gone it doesn’t seem like it’ll be a great game.

ummmm........ · Nov 6, 2024

A lot of ppls have already written Mizzou off -- including me apparently, bc I forgot to include them ; p -- but if they win out I still think they get in, bc there will be attrition above them. Listening to ppls talk about the playoff rn is like listening to ppls talk about all the undefeated teams during the four team playoff, wondering how any of them are going to lose and how there's going to be chaos picking four teams but it always worked out. This will be the same. There will be fewer than twelve P4 teams with fewer than three losses by the time the playoffs come. There just will, it will work itself out. Ten of the twenty-three P4 teams with fewer than three losses have two losses already . . .

As for the actual game, idk if Mizzou has their qb back from injury or not. They opened as a point and a half favorite and it has swung four points towards Oklahoma since then so I'm guessing not? Arnold is nothing special at Oklahoma but he's young and improving. Meanwhile Oklahoma's defense is probs better than Alabama's and Alabama just shut Mizzou out without Cook. So I'm guessing Mizzou goes down . . ?

Daniel Boone · Nov 6, 2024

ummmm........ said:
A lot of ppls have already written Mizzou off -- including me apparently, bc I forgot to include them ; p -- but if they win out I still think they get in, bc there will be attrition above them. Listening to ppls talk about the playoff rn is like listening to ppls talk about all the undefeated teams during the four team playoff, wondering how any of them are going to lose and how there's going to be chaos picking four teams but it always worked out. This will be the same. There will be fewer than twelve P4 teams with fewer than three losses by the time the playoffs come. There just will, it will work itself out. Ten of the twenty-three P4 teams with fewer than three losses have two losses already . . .

As for the actual game, idk if Mizzou has their qb back from injury or not. They opened as a point and a half favorite and it has swung four points towards Oklahoma since then so I'm guessing not? Arnold is nothing special at Oklahoma but he's young and improving. Meanwhile Oklahoma's defense is probs better than Alabama's and Alabama just shut Mizzou out without Cook. So I'm guessing Mizzou goes down . . ?

Yeah, if Cook doesn’t play then I don’t think Mizzou has much of a shot. OU’s defense this season has been very good, and Mizzou’s backup is not good at all.

ummmm........ · Nov 9, 2024

And down goes Miami. I still don't see how they'd miss the playoffs with only one loss. Not sure how the tiebreaker works between them and the Clemson/Pitt winner for who gets to face SMU in the conference title game either. Barring any further unexpected losses ofc . . .

Really impressed with the defense and receivers from Ole Miss so far. Glad we don't play them this year ; p

Quintillus · Nov 9, 2024

And down goes Georgia. And the Ole Miss goalposts.

That makes #3 Georgia, #4 Miami, and #17 Iowa State having fallen. Should've watched the midafternoon slot, the Ohio State game was efficient but not particularly interesting. Indiana defeated the Wolverines to move to 10-0, and Army is now 9-0

The plot thickens.

ummmm........ · Nov 9, 2024

The two loss field is certainly getting crowded. SEC title race too . . .

No one has been eliminated tho, all the two loss teams have won so far today, only Alabama/LSU and Oklahoma/Mizzou left . . .

EDIT: If this result holds and Georgia beats Tennessee next week it's not only possible but actually quite likely there will be six 6-2 teams tied for second in the SEC at the end of the year . . .

EDIT EDIT: Quite the finish for Oklahoma/Mizzou. Four touchdowns in three minutes at the end of the fourth saw Oklahoma go from down seven to up seven to lose by seven ; p

But that mean all those games today and the only team that got eliminated from the playoffs was LSU. Maybe some two-loss P4 teams will miss the playoffs after all . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT: So with the elimination of LSU that leaves us with twenty-two P4 teams with two or fewer losses, including ND and WSU. Ten of those are two-loss teams with games this week, with four of them -- Clemson/Pitt and ASU/KSU -- playing each other. So we'll at least get down to twenty ; p

Quintillus · Nov 10, 2024

^Maybe they should have made it a 16-team playoff :mischief:

.

I watched the first half of Alabama-LSU, but then went to sleep early. Wasn't impressed by LSU's defense. And Milroe can run.

BYU eked out a victory in the Holy War, with some help from a controversial-if-you'-re-a-Utah-fan holding call. I haven't found a sufficiently non-grainy replay of it to say whether I think it was legit or not.

The two-loss teams, by updated loss count, then last week's CFP ranking, with potential conference-winner-automatic-qualifiers noted. Italics for non-Power 5/Notre Dame schools.

1. Oregon (zero, Big Ten)
2. Indiana (zero)
3. BYU (zero, Big Twelve)
4. Army (zero, American)
---
5. Ohio State (one)
6. Miami (one, ACC, lost, likely to fall)
7. Texas (one, SEC)
8. Penn State (one)
9. Tennessee (one)
10. Notre Dame (one)
11. Boise State (one, Mountain West)
12. SMU (one)
13. Washington State (one)
14. Louisiana (one, Sun Belt)
---
15. Georgia (two, lost, likely to fall)
16. Alabama (two)
17. Texas A&M (two)
18. Ole Miss (two)
19. Iowa State (two)
20. Pittsburgh (two, lost, likely to fall)
21. Kansas State (two)
22. Colorado (two)
23. Clemson (two)
24. Missouri (two)
25. Arizona State (two)
-- (end of the ones who likely have a real chance unless there's lots of chaos)--
26. Navy (two)
27. Western Kentucky (two)
28. Sam Houston (two)
29. Liberty (two)
30. UNLV (two)
31. Tulane (two)
32. Memphis (two)

Ones that were off my radar were Arizona State and Louisiana. Arizona State still has a path to the Big Twelve title, albeit not an easy one, needing to beat Kansas State and BYU and have some help with Iowa State and Colorado losing. But they haven't lost to anyone above them in the rankings.

Louisiana's only loss is to Tulane, and they have an easier finish to the season than Army or Boise State - probably too easy. But their record, if not their strength of schedule, positions them as potential dark-horse candidates for the automatic Group of 5 spot if there's chaos among the currently-ranked Group of 5 schools.

----

Aside from that, financially profitable day for Georgia, with Ole Miss storming the field twice. That's the silliest conference rule I am aware of, to generalize what Clark Lea said earlier this year, the community needs those celebrations.

ummmm........ · Nov 10, 2024

Or maybe we should have left it at four, or reduced it to three ; p

Oregon and Ohio State have already played, and are likely to play again. I don't need to see that a third time in the playoffs. I'm okay with them facing off against the SEC champ, that's why the postseason exists after all, and then maybe throw Notre Dame in there for fun, make the SEC champ prove themselves against ND before they get the right to face undefeated Oregon. If BYU is undefeated then okay they can be the fourth team, or substituted for ND in the three team scenario. After that no one has "earned" a berth, you're just filling spots with undeserving teams, like we always did with that last team in the four team model . . .

The G5 teams are irrelevant, other than the AQ. There is zero chance the committee puts a second G5 team in, that's just not the way money works. Louisiana is also irrelevant, there is no way the Sunbelt champ will be the AQ. It will be Boise, unless they somehow lose one of their remaining games in which case it will be the AAC champ, whether that's Army, Tulane or Navy. The only other possibility is if Army magically beats ND and wins the AAC, in which case they would jump Boise who would somehow drop to thirteenth or below . . .

So again we're left with the twenty-two P4 teams vying for eleven spots, guaranteed to drop to at least twenty this weekend, could theoretically drop to fourteen but realistically I think other than the four playing each other only Georgia(Tennessee), Missouri(@South Carolina), Colorado(Utah) and Iowa State(Cincinnati) have a real chance to lose. Ole Miss is off, A&M plays New Mexico State and Alabama plays Mercer, so I'm penciling in those as wins this week ; p

EDIT: fwiw, South Carolina opened as a two-TD favorite over Mizzou . . .

Quintillus · Nov 11, 2024

Missouri's best win is Vanderbilt, whereas South Carolina also beat A&M, and beat Vanderbilt a lot more convincingly than Missouri did. So I can see why South Carolina is the favorite (and, in the new AP Poll, ranked one higher than Mizzou). South Carolina's worst loss is against LSU, so they have two Top 10 losses (Ole Miss and Alabama) and the other one is still Top 25. Mizzou's losses (Alabama and A&M) are also quality losses, but South Carolina beat one of those two...

This may not be the year, but at some point I suspect a 12-team playoff will result in multiple G5 teams qualifying - Cincinnati broke into the 4-team playoff as a G5 school, after all. The most likely route this year is if Army beats Notre Dame (who managed to lose to a Northern Illinois team that is 2-3 in MACtion so far this year), and Boise State wins out. Army should be in if they win out, and I don't think leaving out a Boise State team whose only loss is by a field goal to #1 Oregon would make sense.

I'm still on Team Eight-Team Playoff, but the thing I like about it being more than four is there is a chance for an improved team (over the course of a year) to make it - though it also means there's a chance that a team that's doing worse as the season goes on to still make it. Traditionally, yes, it would be Oregon/Ohio State/Indiana, Texas/Tennesse, BYU, and Notre Dame assuming no upsets. But now there's a chance for an Ole Miss that is peaking at the right time and has never lost by more than a field goal. There's a chance for a Boise State or SMU. Could even be a spot for a two-loss Bama team, without Saban having to improve on his TV-circuit marketing game from a couple of years ago.

Twelve may be too much, and I wouldn't be surprised if we get a team whose odds look doubtful, with the top three candidates being Penn State (likely to finish the year without a win against an end-of-season top-25 team, unless Illinois finishes strong), Georgia, and Miami, although Penn State would have an outside shot even in a 4-team playoff.

The real determining factor will be how the games play out. If the #10 team wins the championship this year, well, that's a strong point in favor of the expanded playoff. If, after a few years, the semifinals are consistently teams ranked in the top 5 or 6, they were expanded too much. I'm hoping there's at least occasionally a team outside the top 4 that proves worthy, though hopefully not beyond 9 (as then we'd likely have a 64-team January Madness in a few years, and basketball should have a monopoly on that big of a tournament).

------

Edit: Florida State vs Charleston Southern in two weeks... favorite among the 1-9 teams? Charleston Southern faces 2-8 Eastern Illinois first, so they might have the better record by the time they face Florida State. Of course Florida State should win, but they've lost so many times that they should have won this year that nothing would surprise me at this point.

ummmm........ · Nov 11, 2024

You missed the fact that South Carolina's defense is awesome and Mizzou's offense is poop. I think that has a lot to do with it ; p

Two G5 teams will never make it. Cincinnati got in bc there was the constant, irrational, complaint that G5 teams didn't have access. Now they do, no need to share revenue any further. What's far more likely is the SEC and Big Ten will start limiting access for the Big XII and ACC as well, though I imagine their champions will always have access as long as they exist as competitive leagues . . .

I like the more limited playoff bc it preserves the integrity of the regular season -- the one thing that made CFB unique, and better than all the other sports. With professional sports you don't need to watch the regular season at all, everyone with a winning record makes the playoffs. I'm sure the CFB playoffs will be great fun to watch, and this last month of the season is going to be a lot of fun as well, but the first two months were entirely optional . . .

The real determining factor will be how much money they make. If they think a sixteen or a hundred and thirty team playoff will make them more money, that's what we'll get . . .

Daniel Boone · Nov 11, 2024

I just want to point out how crazy it is that Vanderbilt is a quality win this year.

ummmm........ · Nov 12, 2024

It's a natural consequence of the NIL world I think, player mobility and all. That also probably has something to do with why there are so many two-loss teams this late in the season, more parity. And I think that's probably good for the sport, and I'm in favor of it either way bc it's def good for the players ; p

EDIT: I don't care too much about the playoff rankings bc only the last one matters and if you don't make a twelve team field you have no one to blame but yourselves. But, the committee is doing some weirdness this year. Oregon/Ohio State at the top makes sense to me . . .

Texas at three, okay, I guess, kind of? They look good, so pass the eye test. And they only have one loss, but it's not a great loss to a two-loss UGA team that isn't turning out to be quite as good as we thought, maybe. That's kind of the story with their wins as well, they've got a handful, but over teams that turned out to be not as good as we thought they were at the time . . .

Penn State at four. Close loss to Ohio State, haven't played anyone else . . .

Next up Indiana. Great story, but they've played no one, not even anyone who we thought was good at the time. But okay, undefeated does count for a lot still. Except, hang on, there's BYU at six. Also undefeated and wins over either KState or SMU are more impressive than anything Indiana has done, much less both so WTH . . ?

And then it starts to get weirder from there. Tennessee is up next, one loss, just like Penn State. Much worse loss so okay makes sense that Tennessee would be lower, except oh they have a win over Alabama to Penn State's win over nothing. So again, WTH . . ?

And then let's look at the other one-loss teams. Notre Dame has wins over A&M and Louisville, weird loss to Northern Illinois. Miami is up next, again, bad loss to GT, only good win is over Louisville. So at least the committee is consistent with the "bad loss" one-loss teams grouped together there, but valuing a "quality loss/no win" team like Penn State over the "bad loss, quality win(s)" teams is the opposite of what they always did in the four team field . . .

And oh, wait, that's not the end of the one loss teams. There are two more, both ranked just outside the top twelve. Boise has basically the same resume as Penn State, close loss to #1 Oregon, no wins. But Boise is nine spots lower? SMU, same story. Only loss is by three to undefeated BYU, win over the same Louisville team as Miami, but "bad loss" Miami is five spots ahead of them? And then there's WSU, way down in the rankings but same resume as Penn State and Boise, quality loss, no wins . . .

I'm more or less fine with the next three SEC teams at 10-12. Georgia has better losses and better wins than either Alabama or Ole Miss, but both of those teams beat Georgia so meh. I wouldn't be surprised to see UGA and Tennessee swap places next week if UGA wins this weekend. Actually Tennessee might still stay ranked over Alabama and Ole Miss with them having Mercer and an off week this weekend, no opportunity to impress . . .

It doesn't make a ton of sense to have A&M separated from that pack down at fifteen, unless you're using the "good wins trump bad losses" criteria the committee has used in the past, but abandoned at the top of the rankings . . .

So, short answer, these rankings make no sense. But, again, who really cares ; p

Quintillus · Nov 15, 2024

That's a detailed analysis for something no one cares about

.

This weekend I plan to watch Ohio State at Northwestern at Wrigley. I've seen Wrigley so many times on WGN watching the Cubbies, it'll be weird to see it hosting a football game. Although, it's on BTN, so I'll have to go out somewhere to watch it. Probably worth it for the novelty factor.

Aside from that, Tennessee/Georgia is the other one that I may well watch. Two good teams (even if not both as good as expected), and now that it's mid-November we're at a point where even with a 12-team playoff there are stakes - and surprisingly, more so for Georgia.

Sadly I'll probably miss seeing the Mercer game. Their TV coverage is likely to be limited up here. Tulane/Navy there's a chance I might catch glimpses of depending on where I watch the Wrigley game.

ummmm........ · Nov 16, 2024

Quintillus said:
That's a detailed analysis for something no one cares about .

That's what sports are for ; )

Second most interesting game for me tomorrow is probably Utah/Colorado. I don't think Utah is going to have a lot left for Colorado after the way the BYU game ended last week, but it's slim pickings this week with so many byes. There's a lot of buzz about Arkansas upsetting Texas as well, but idk how much that would really affect anything tbh, even if it did happen. Would make Texas/A&M game an elimination game tho . . .

But other than that yeah tomorrow is just waiting around for Tennessee/UGA to start. I'm surprised Etienne being out hasn't affected the way ppls feel about the outcome of that game more, but I'm betting they know more about it than I do so I'm expecting a big Georgia win . . .

Quintillus · Nov 16, 2024

Looking a bit farther down the field, Boise State has probably their toughest test left with San José State. I don't expect it to be close but there's an outside chance it could be. Not on a network that I have though.

Any idea what happened to Wyoming this year? They're 2-8, after finishing .500 or better for the past seven whole seasons (not counting 2020). The only thing I see right away is that their head coach retired. They lost to Colorado State tonight, and Colorado State has a chance to finish undefeated in the Mountain West, and thus face Boise State for the conference championship. Everyone's talking about the other team in Colorado, and the Buffaloes did earn bragging rights over the Rams this year, but the Rams have their first winning season since 2017 at 7-3 and counting, and as far as I know the winningest coach named Norvell in college football this season. Which no one would have expected twelve months ago.

ummmm........ · Nov 16, 2024

Tbh I know I'm going to miss a chunk of the day tomorrow so haven't paid a lot of attn. I feel good about getting home in time for Tennessee/UGA and that's all I'm hoping for . . .

EDIT: Mizzou, KState and Pitt all picked up their third loss today, so that brings us down to nineteen teams I think . . ?

EDIT EDIT: No true two-loss v two-loss elimination games next week either . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT: Realistically I think four or five of the two loss teams face a potential threat next week . . .

Unrelated to anything, but I've been really impressed with South Carolina lately. They may be the best team with no chance to make the playoffs rn ; p

Quintillus · Nov 16, 2024

What a slate of games! Wisconsin vs Oregon was a real highlight. It came down to which team did better on 4th-and-9... and a questionable chop block call against the Badgers. That took away a 1st down and set up the short field that Oregon turned into the lead.

Georgia/Tennessee looked really good for three quarters too, Tennessee couldn't get things going in the second half though.

Ohio State/Northwestern was close for one and a half quarters, and the Wrigley setting was unique. I hear that Army is playing in Yankee Stadium next week, so there's another opportunity to watch football in baseball stadiums.

BYU isn't out of the woods against Kansas yet, they've got the lead but the Jayhawks are moving.

But so far the upsets? Stanford over Louisville. Georgia over Tennessee - does that count? The Gators over the Tigers. And USC over Nebraska. Almost UMASS over Liberty, that really would've been a big one. Louisiana Tech over Western Kentucky is a bit of a surprise too.

Edit: Charleston Southern made it to overtime against Eastern Illinois. Per the AP reporter, "Charleston Southern will look to snap its nine-game losing streak in its finale at one-win Florida State." I love the deadpan delivery, and in a way it would be less strange if the Buccaneers pull that off than it would have if UMASS had beat Liberty.

Edit: Updated two-or-fewer loss list:

Spoiler :

ummmm........ · Nov 17, 2024

I had trouble getting into Oregon/Wisconsin bc even if they lost who cares, they could have lost that one and Washington next week and still get in the playoffs ; p

Kind of felt the same way about BYU. I don't see the Big XII getting two in so whoever wins the conference is in and it doesn't matter much to me who it is (Colorado) . . .

Speaking of, the Big XII is the only P4 that has unranked two-loss teams, and it has two of them, ISU and ASU . . .

EDIT: I will say I was able to get into "meaningless" Florida/LSU, at least the bit I caught at the end. It's nice seeing Florida give Napier the chance to turn that around, and to see players who were still invested in their team without much left to play for . . .

NCAA Football Thread - 2024

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