New Supreme Court Justices

[zjl56]

This is pure speculation, but I believe that at least one Justice (Stevens) will retire within the next eight years. Do you believe that any other justices will retire, and who are strong runners for nomination for Republicans or Democrats?

 

[downtown]

Obviously, it depends on who the president is. If a Democrat becomes president in 2008, Stevens and Ginsburg could very well retire.

 

[JollyRoger]

I think Justice Ginsburg may also retire within the next 8 years. As for replacements, it really is hard to tell. It really depends on who is President and how stacked the Senate is for or against the President. Based on seats up for grabs, I would expect that the Democrats will pick up seats in 2008 meaning that a Republican President would likely need to go with a moderate nominee while a Democratic President would perhaps have a little bit more leeway. Since it apears realistic that the next 2-3 Justices that will be replaced are from the "liberal" wing of the Court, I think a Democratic President will only be able to maintain the current balance on the Court (4-4, with Kennedy as the swing vote), while a Republican would have an opportunity to really move the Court to the right. Of course, there is always the possibility that someone will appoint the next Stevens or Souter, but it usually takes a few terms of the Court for that to become apparent.

 

[JollyRoger]

Here is some speculation:

http://www.scotusblog.com/movabletype/archives/2007/07/the_republican_1.html

The link is to the speculation on the Republican possibilities, but once there, you can click on links to speculation about Democratic possibilities.


Republicans:

As things stand, my short-list for a first nomination is: Ninth Circuit Judge Consuelo Callahan, Florida State Supreme Court Justice Raoul Cantero, Sentencing Commission Chairman Ricardo Hinojosa, Texas Supreme Court Justice David Medina, and Fifth Circuit Judge Priscilla Owen. I predict Callahan, which likely would disappoint conservatives who recognize the great importance of the Stevens seat, but which nonetheless reflects my sense of the likely political realities of the circumstances (i.e., who could get confirmed).

For a second nomination (should there be one), I would add as potential nominees Paul Clement, John Cornyn, Judge Michael McConnell, and Judge William Pryor. I predict Clement. (He would be very young, but for the record Joseph Story was 32 when he was appointed.)

Democrats:

The First Seat:

Hon. Johnnie Rawlinson, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit

Chief Justice Leah Ward Sears, Georgia Supreme Court

Hon. Sonia Sotomayor, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit

Hon. Kim McLane Wardlaw, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit

Additional Names for a Second and Third Seat:

Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Governor and former State Attorney General (term limited as of 2010)

Dean Elena Kagan, Harvard Law School

Hon. Merrick Garland, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia

Gov. Deval Patrick, Governor and former Asst. Attorney General (first term ends in 2010)

Sen. Ken Salazar, U.S. Senator from Colorado

My ultimate predictions? Kim Wardlaw (2009, for Souter), Deval Patrick (2010, for Stevens), and Elena Kagan (2011, for Ginsburg).

The second seat will go to a recognized intellectual heavyweight. That means Garland, Kagan, Sullivan, or Wood. Kagan gets the nod from me because she is the youngest (by five to ten years) and helps the gender balance of the Court.

For the third seat, I believe a Democratic President will prefer to expand the Court’s racial diversity by appointing an African American. My full list has twelve candidates. (In my original post, I predicted Deval Patrick because he is known to the Clintons and has political experience.) Because this appointment would come at least two years into a Democratic Administration, I’ll pick Teresa Roseborough, who could be appointed in the meantime to the D.C. Circuit, Second Circuit (where she works), or Eleventh Circuit (where she lives). (Walter Dellinger advocated appointing her to the Eleventh Circuit towards the end of the Clinton Administration.)

Interestingly, this would mean three consecutive appointments of women.