Next World Superpower?

[Amenhotep7]

Suppose the US just somehow within the next few days/weeks lost it's superpower status. (It would have to go on and accept mediocrity...Kinda like Britain.j/k) In the current world situation, who would become the next superpower? Russia, China, England, the EU as a whole, etc, and how would it affect the world today? Suppose China became the next superpower. Would China begin to become more diplomatically aggressive, knowing that there is no Superpowered USA to act as a counterweight?

 

[Amenhotep7]

Two votes and no replies, eh?

 

[mrgenius]

china.

 

[andrewgprv]

Most Likely China, Possabley the EU

 

[Dell19]

If the USA was to lose its super power status over say several years then it could be hoped that the EU would speed up its integration and enlarge its military to then take the place of the US in balancing China with the help of Japan. Who knows what Russia would do... but its unlikely we would see the rise of one specific European nation as a new superpower.

 

[Kinniken]

China is the only country who could become a "classic" superpower in the medium term I think, though countries like India and Brazil could become very strong second-rank nations, replacing nations like Japan, the UK and France.
I hope the EU will become more united and extend its influence in the world, but it will not become a superpower, nor a single state. More of a community of interests and values using mainly "soft power", which can be very effective.

 

[Amenhotep7]

I always thought it would be cool if the EU became one country with all of the former nations having much autonomy. Then again, it's not likely!

 

[HighlandWarrior]

no one. China is far from a super power, the eu? ha!

 

[The Last Conformist]

If the US ceased to be a superpower tomorrow, in favour of cultivating oranges, say, there wouldn't be an immediate successor. I do recon China to be the most likely eventual successor, however, so I voted for them.

 

[luiz]

Today everything indicates that China will be the world's leading power in 30-50 years.

However, in the 70's everything indicated that Japan would be the world's leading power in the year 2000, and look where they are now after a decade of endless crises... Today nobody would even consider a scenario with Japan as a superpower.

If someone claims to know the future, someone is lying.

 

[Kinniken]

Originally posted by Amenhotep7
I always thought it would be cool if the EU became one country with all of the former nations having much autonomy. Then again, it's not likely!

Well, if you look back to fifty years ago, the progress toward that is in fact rather impressive. And anyway, few people (not even me, and I am definitely a federalist) want it to become one country. I far prefer the idea of a federation somewhat in-between a federal country and a "classic" multilateral organisation; a federation that on top of what it already does would provide a common foreign policy and defense and more economic cooperations, but would leave the state within it handling most of the rest. And a federation which countries would be free to leave if they so desire, but which would also be open to accepting new members.
In fact, something not very far from the original United State, with the very important distinction that being made up of countries with their own language and culture it would not turn into a single nation like the US did.
I strongly believe that such a federation would be a very positive thing for the world; built on shared values and compromise between very different countries, it would be more likely to promote outside its borders the ideals that more than anything else would unite it, with far less risk of falling into nationalist extremism. It would also have the rather unique history of having grown entirely peacefully, never though conquest. And its very growth would make its boundaries less "fixed" than that of modern states, which would hopefully blur the "us and them" mentality that is sadly very present in many countries today.
Now, all this is largely a "vision". But the EU has been built on a vision, it so far it has turned out rather well

 

[Sarevok]

China

 

[stratego]

If US loses its superpower status, wouldn't Canada and Mexico want to gain that status to stablize the region. I vote Mexico

 

[Free Enterprise]

Basically it would either be China or if the EU if the EU fully unified into a single super state. China will continue to gain power at a steady rate however it still has some ways to go to reach true super power status.

Thus it would be a multipolar world if the U.S. ceased to be a super power.

The demographic troubles would need to be reversed if the EU really wants to be a super power for long though. Also the EU is still composed to independent states for the time being. If it were to become a super power they would have to fuse the militaries and government moreso than they are now. Possibly streamline the supra-national government too (too overlapping and convolutated).

Russia has some serious problems demographic and economic problems it must resolve first to even consider being a super power.

 

[Kinniken]

Originally posted by luiz
Today everything indicates that China will be the world's leading power in 30-50 years.

However, in the 70's everything indicated that Japan would be the world's leading power in the year 2000, and look where they are now after a decade of endless crises... Today nobody would even consider a scenario with Japan as a superpower.

True enough, and you can add to that the USSR, whose rapid post-war economic growth led many people to claim that it would economically overtake the US and become the world's first economic power in twenty years or so.

Predictions on China becoming the first economic power rest on the assumption that they can continue to have GNP growth at 10% for the next thirty years, which is ridiculous. First, the reason they are growing so fast is that they have so much to catch up - as their GNP/head starts to climb it is doubt full they will be able to continue growing that fast. Secondly, the risk of major political upheaval is very big. How long will the Communist Party be able to cling to power?
However, it is true that with their massive population even a lowish (by western standards) GNP/head is enough to get them among the biggest economies in the world. I guess we shall see

 

[gael]

Ireland.

 

[JonathanValjean]

Definitely China!

 

[Hakim]

India? No?

The EU will never be more than a market when it comes to power.

How about an union between North and South America and Europe including Russia? Atlantic Union, with capital on Azores.

 

[Maj]

Japan had two major barriers that impeded their rise to superpower status. The first is its scarcity in natural resources. The second is its Constitution which specifically forbids the formation of a military and the engagement in any combat, although the former has been successfully circumvented to create the SDF. There are also the issues of frequent natural disasters, high population density and little arable land to contend with.

To be in the midst of a recession that has gripped the country for over a decade and still boast the world's second largest economy is quite remarkable.

China would be my pick although there's no saying that it would have to be America's successor; the two can co-exist as superpowers.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

If we had an adequate defensive military, the resource superpower of Canada would rise in the next century.

You want water? KISS MY FEET.