I went with SIP and AG > BW. I can't really imagine teching anything else here. On T52 i popped gold at Lisbon! Prior to that i thought Monarchy might be very important, but just getting +1 happiness is a really big deal, not to mention the extra commerce to help fund expansion.
I decided to tech Alpha after TW > Pottery > Writing since i really wanted to trade for IW and i had only met 3 AI (one of which was Toku). It appears i just barely beat Mansa to this Sugar spot. It's not a great spot early, but I didn't want Mansa to get it, and there's a suspicious tile that could have horses or iron. It should be a pretty nice city long-term.
I'm not sure what happened to the archers in this barb city. A few turns prior to this there were 4 and then suddenly just 1. I pulled the axe garrisoned in Coimbra and took the city with 1 loss.
I traded away my copper for stone and got something like 160 fail gold before it was completed. I then traded something (i think it was Currency) to Mansa for 280 gold on the next turn. I have mixed feelings about speeding Mansa up even more, but other people already had the tech, it was wayyy too much gold to turn down, and my general feeling with Mansa is that you usually just have to make the trades when you can because trade opportunities can disappear very quickly when he's in the game.
I attempted to snipe Cherokee with a couple of axes, but there was no such luck.
T100 i switch into HR + Bureau and build an Academy.
And this is the current tech situation where i find myself at a tech disadvantage despite T100 CS.
Lisbon which i want to grow out onto 4 more cottages. The galley is to explore the sheep island i see to the SE and possibly send a settler down there.
Overall, I'm not entirely sure where to go from here. I recently saw that the map script is Terra and i have almost no experience playing this type of map. I'm not sure how one would effectively settle the new continent without State Property so my inclination is to let the AI settle the new world while i conquer the old one.
I don't have horses, but i do have iron and a lot of beaker potential so right now I'm leaning towards Cannons. Medieval war seems unnecessary here when i have 8 cities, good BPT, and a safe diplo situation. The tech pace on this map is also very fast so i think i need a unit with a long window and Cannons are definitely that. The only argument i can think of for an earlier war would be to knock Mansa down a peg, but I don't believe I'm even set up for one in terms of infrastructure.
I also need to do some more exploring. I have two WBs out now, but i sent the first one west and it ran into the great wall of Tokugawa until i recently got him to pleased for OB. The eastern WB came a good bit later and there still should be 1 more AI over there somewhere that i haven't met.