Nobles' Club 372: Montezuma of the Aztecs

Spoiler :

6 cities but large empire. built stonhenge in my second city, pyramids on the third. boudica declared on wang kong and failed to take anything
diplowise: boudica and peter share judaism (I don't have it)
wang is budist
sitting is hindu
they are all kinda neutral to me. could convert to hindu and secure the bull, but will get attacked by the others. could wait for juda, but peter and boudica plot at pleased
wang kong shouldn't be an issue
going for the great Library without marble, but with pyramids and rep so mistake I guess but trade bait and gold if fail I guess
thinking of going for sacrificial altar, construction and crash econ mode on someone
 
t50 Immortal
Spoiler :

Went Wheel - Pottery - Mining - BW. Now teching AH because we have pig and I would like to see if we have horses. Went worker - warrior - warrior - settler at size 3 - warrior - second settler at size 4 - warrior and now building a worker. Settled Teotihuacan (great city!), which went warrior while growing to size 2 and then worker. Worker 1 farmed the 3 corns in counter-clockwise direction (should have been clockwise really, but oh well) and then built a cottage on the floodplain. After that, it went to improve the corn for Teo, followed by a cottage on the banana and is now chopping for Tenoch. The sheep city is building a granary while growing to size 2, after which it will build and then whip a worker. As for the fourth city, I will probably grab the eastern copper and block SB. Regarding future plans, SB is very close and is inviting an early rush. In the absence of horses, that will be a construction rush supported by axes, jags and perhaps a spear if he has horses. The land is very juicy and neither food nor commerce will be a problem. Tenoch's corns can be shared by no less than three cities potentially. Production could be better but we will be able to whip, especially after we get sacrificial altars. However, happiness is the big limiter right now. I might get wine and other than that there are calendar resources and whales. All of those resources will come kind of late...
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Deity, 1870 AD. I give up.
Although being last in tech I still managed to stop one spaceship from reaching Alpha Centauri. Now there is another spaceship about to be launched on the other continent and I simply don't have enough transport capacity or military power to have any hope reaching their capital in time.
Edit: Oh, and there is also this little thing that I'm the only player that has thus far not been a target of at least one nuke. And I have no nukes of my own.
 
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t50 Immortal
Spoiler :

Went Wheel - Pottery - Mining - BW. Now teching AH because we have pig and I would like to see if we have horses. Went worker - warrior - warrior - settler at size 3 - warrior - second settler at size 4 - warrior and now building a worker. Settled Teotihuacan (great city!), which went warrior while growing to size 2 and then worker. Worker 1 farmed the 3 corns in counter-clockwise direction (should have been clockwise really, but oh well) and then built a cottage on the floodplain. After that, it went to improve the corn for Teo, followed by a cottage on the banana and is now chopping for Tenoch. The sheep city is building a granary while growing to size 2, after which it will build and then whip a worker. As for the fourth city, I will probably grab the eastern copper and block SB. Regarding future plans, SB is very close and is inviting an early rush. In the absence of horses, that will be a construction rush supported by axes, jags and perhaps a spear if he has horses. The land is very juicy and neither food nor commerce will be a problem. Tenoch's corns can be shared by no less than three cities potentially. Production could be better but we will be able to whip, especially after we get sacrificial altars. However, happiness is the big limiter right now. I might get wine and other than that there are calendar resources and whales. All of those resources will come kind of late...
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My 2 cents :
Spoiler :
I 100% think you should skip AH and go Writing first.
If you keep settling, your maintenance costs are gonna shoot up and you kinda want Writing beforehand. (This is the awkward part with Pottery first, btw ; now you have unlocked chops & cottages but the point of the game you're at would favour max commerce over max production.)
You also need :gp: asap if you aim to tech up (Library in Teotihuacan seems best, possibly before Granary).
While unlocking the sheep is good, you do not have the happy cap to make use of the pigs, yet.
Peter is known to get early Alphabet (also Wang, in a lesser measure) and getting to that trade asap is a big deal.
Benefit of AH : sheep, perhaps horses. Cost : +10 turns to Writing (in a nutshell).

In that light, it is possible Tlatelolco should not have settled the sheep but rather corn + copper to the East, which is a site that Native America could contest. Your site does make perfect sense with AH in mind, though, it is certainly the superior spot.
There could be value to a stone play, like Chinemol did, but i'm not sure how that tracks. It most likely should be planned for very early.

As for a Construction rush against Sitting Bull... This is not the easiest target with Dog Soldiers and Totem Poles. Go for it if you want to but the map doesn't, in any way, force you into that direction :
It's perfectly reasonable to tech up and expand north.

:egypt:
 
This is my T50
Spoiler :
Bronze Working first is not destined to bankrupt if one applies solid maintenance control (i.e. time expansion with tech ; favour workers and growth when expansion is not desirable).
In the words of Sarah Connor : "There is no fate."

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Tenochtitlan is decaying hammers on a warrior, because I'm pretty sure I'd pay maintenance for it.
Plan is to stagnate cities at max pop and cottage what I can until I get my hands on Writing. Then, expand to 5 cities. So, I'm now slowbuilding workers 4 and 5 (there will be 1 chop in Teotihuacan).
Rushing Granaries right now is also premature, except in city 3, since that would either require whips or delays on cottages.
As hinted in my post above, Teotihuacan will likely 2 pop whip my Library before Granary.
I will switch back to settler production and perhaps also chopping when Writing is at hand. This means that, by that time, the land will be healthily cottaged.
We have the pop to work 5 cottages between cities 1 & 2, if we bin the pigs.

Some earlier stuff :
Spoiler :
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^ Tenoch grows to 5 and whips when BW comes in. I think this is a good whip. It doesn't really speed up the settler but allows to work floodplains for some extra commerce and get a 2nd warrior out.
Overflow goes into 2nd worker, completed with the help of a 1st chop (2 turns worker).

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^ 3rd worker. Delayed the chop (mine 1 turn) to wait on size 4.
Worker on corn farms bananas next.
Then I finished my mine and started roading to city 3. 3rd worker helps roading and does a chop en route. No more whips, in order to preserve population.
 
@BornInCantaloup
Spoiler :

I 100% think you should skip AH and go Writing first.
I hadn't thought of that but you convinced me. Also because of the last quote, I don't really need horses that badly anymore.
While unlocking the sheep is good, you do not have the happy cap to make use of the pigs, yet.
True, pigs are overkill and sheep can be farmed.
In that light, it is possible Tlatelolco should not have settled the sheep but rather corn + copper to the East
The thing is I didn't have BW yet so I didn't even know about that copper when I settled Tlate. If I had known about it then yes, that would have been a better settle for sure.
It's perfectly reasonable to tech up and expand north.
I really needed to hear this! Today my gut feeling shifted more towards teching up, with the nice land to the north. And you answered the exact question I had in mind!
 
T75
Spoiler :

2-pop whipped a settler at size 5 in Tenoch, because the eastern copper spot was just too urgent. Went Writing before AH in accordance with @BornInCantaloup 's advice. Settled Texcoco 1800 BC. As soon as Writing finished, Teo started on a Library, which it 2-pop whipped with the help of a chop. Has been running 1-2 scientists ever since. I also built a road from Tex to Poverty Point for trade routes. I whipped a monument in Tex in anticipation of culture pressure from SB. Then built a warrior for urgently needed happiness in other cities. It also worked on a Granary for a while, but at size 2 I decided to get another quick worker out of it working corn and copper. Tenoch finished the worker, then worked on a warrior, again for happiness, and a Granary. Back at size 5, it slow-built a settler that went on to found Tlax, which immediately took one corn from the capital. Overall, as you can see, I focused more on commerce and growth than on infra, with most cities still building Granaries, let alone Libraries. It felt wrong to whip a lot with such a dire happiness situation. I am currently second in GNP. Nobody has Alpha yet, Peter just got IW. I am working on Aesthetics so I can get some trades, because all of my neighbors have traits for teching, so the tech pace may be quite fast. I don't know how far the land stretches in the north, I can see a great 6th city spot there, but I can't really see any further expansion possibilites beyond that yet. Btw, what should I do with the first GS? Save him for Philo? Could be nice to do some spiritual caste-paci gaming, working my way up to Lib. If it's going to be a game like that, the lack of horses makes me wanna go cannons + muskets and later rifles.

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@jorissimo
Spoiler :
Props on the road to SB. It's a very important move to do early after writing when the neighbour is so close.
I think you have 3 warriors outside your borders. You should move them out a little to get better scouting and vision of the land available.

My thoughts on some of your questions :
- You have 8 cottageable shared tiles in Tenochtitlan. I would absolutely make it a priority to have a monster Bureau capital, here.
--> 1st GS goes to an Academy.
- Yes, if you want to tech to Liberalism, a Caste switch is extremely convenient, also free border pops are cool. As such, and there being no marble for the Aesthetics line,
--> Code of Laws is a perfectly valid entry point into the classical era.
CoL kinda speeds up Civil Service. Also unlocks Sac Altars and SPI Temples.
I don't know about your game but you could even take a cheap shot at Oracle -> CoL if the wonders are late. You seem to have 7 forests left in Tenochtitlan, so it is conceivable to 1-turn the wonder, with the help of a whip and some coordination.
- Teching to Cannons ? Perhaps. Sometimes there's a window for Macemen. If you're heavily cottaged, going straight to Rifling has some appeal. Printing Press is on the way and can be bulbed. Steam Power is a sweet follow up. I think the tech path around Rifling is better overall. Do you really need cannons ?

I think you went AH after Writing ? I was suggesting to go Writing --> Classical Era and reserve AH for trade ;)

I focused more on commerce and growth than on infra, with most cities still building Granaries
I mostly did the same and I think it makes a lot of sense, here. It's very hard to use the Granaries with so much food in the early cities and so little happiness.
Unlocking happiness should come fist and that presumes working commerce at happy cap.

gl gl
 
Immortal 1AD (Thanks for hosting!!)
Spoiler :
I went for TW, Pottery before Mining, BW. Felt like the timing worked out fairly well although was quite a slow start. Happy cap was an issue for a while. Judaism didn't spread for ages. But it's spread round now and also got Monarchy and Calendar so it's time to grow!
Have 9 workers but feels like they're struggling to keep up. Darned jungle!!
Wang DoW Sitting Bull which makes Diplo pretty easy. Peter built the good stuff (Mids and GLH) so he might have to die soon...
Probably won't play this out as not a lot of time these days but it's turning into a fun map.
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@BornInCantaloup
Spoiler :

Code of Laws is a perfectly valid entry point into the classical era.
Another one of those things I needed to hear. I often go Aesthetics by default, but it's so useless by itself, and then the Immortal AI might not even have Alphabet by the time I finish Aesth. Funnily enough I do sometimes take the CoL route to CS when I go Engineering, like in the (unpublished) Engineering Izzy game.
you could even take a cheap shot at Oracle -> CoL if the wonders are late.
Good call, I could actually try that. Will have to check if it hasn't already been built though.
I think the tech path around Rifling is better overall.
Right, also drafting with all this food will be worthwhile. Or just SacAlt-fueled whipping.
I think you went AH after Writing ? I was suggesting to go Writing --> Classical Era and reserve AH for trade ;)
I see, I see. AH has really yielded me very little. But trading for it, isn't that really bad for one's trade cap?
mostly did the same and I think it makes a lot of sense, here.
:high5:
 
@jorissimo :
Spoiler :

AH has really yielded me very little. But trading for it, isn't that really bad for one's trade cap?
It's good to be aware of your trade cap but this is only one tech.
AH is kind of expensive and the way to look at it is not in beakers but in turns.
If we look at your 1000 BC stop, all other things being equal, if you'd just skipped AH, I guess you'd have just researched Aesthetics. So, that would be +7 turns towards an important milestone, and +7 turns towards subsequent milestones. Granted, I expected Alphabet to be up for trade early in your game, and that skews things a little.

If we look at neighbours, Peter and Wang trade quite generously. So that's also context for an "early trade".
Now if we were 50 more turns into the game and you could 1 turn small techs, then, sure, trading would not be advisable.
Also, backfilling for 5-6 early techs while being surrounded by stingy AIs, not advisable. But, a different context :)
 
Part III. Making it work (or where I mostly take my own advice). To 1000 BC :
Spoiler :
1600 BC, we have 3 cities, 5 workers and are getting Writing + 2 settlers with, may I say, a very nice synchronization.
Now, it all starts here :
Spoiler :
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The next stop is Code of Laws with 5 cities and 2 Libraries (Library in Teotihuacan for :gp: ; Library in Tenochtitlan because capital).
And the Oracle has not yet been built.

At this point, I would advise anybody to make a quick forest count - I have 5 - just to check how feasible it is to rush the Oracle. Does it stretch resources ? Yes. Is the payoff huge ? Yes.
The thing is, given 5 workers, the Oracle is not a 6-7 turns build. Ideally, it is a 1 turn build. Or perhaps you amass some base hammers into it and then drop the final 120 in one go.

Turns out 5 chops is a little bit on the low side, because it requires 2 whips with overflow.
So, connect copper, prepare Axeman whip, put 10ish hammers into worker, whip -> axeman into Worker, whip worker into Oracle + 5 chops. This is 150 hammers and a conceivable plan.
Is it worth it to warp the next turns over this plan ? Yes, even though it hurts to lose 4 pop in the capital.
Now that there's a plan for production, what we need is a timeline for when the whips + chops should come in.

Spoiler :
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First, we plant our cities and start banking gold. I've had a hard time with the dotmap but I think this is alright.
Tlaxcala's location is forced, because this is the only way to get the bananas long term. Texcoco, I worry might be oversharing the food from Tenochtitlan.
However, short term, it is a very strong production spot and I think claiming Stone (Oxford) + Wine justifies it. I also don't want Sitting Bull to come close and pressure my corns.
Meanwhile : Trade routes to SB are done. Chop in Teotihuacan ensures I'll rush that Library. Tlatelolco starts on a settler, rather than on a Worker, because Tenochtitlan plans on whipping that Worker.

Spoiler :
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T65 Library whip. Note that getting the Library outside of the capital is the more efficient way to grow your Bureaucracy cottages.
Copper is connected, whips are prepared in Tenochtitlan, sufficient gold has been amassed to reach Priesthood. I would think in 5 turns.
Now it's time to spread the workers.

Sitting Bull is kind enough to send a missionary our way.

Spoiler :
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Now this is bad news. I'm still in maintenance control mode until I reach CoL and Sitting Bull is sending a settler party.
I whip the settler in Tlatelolco to guarantee peace of mind. Maybe I panicked. I lose a lot of yields from the copper mine and, without a Granary, the city will have a hard time regrowing to size 4.
Sitting Bull is obviously aiming to settle the spot where he has his archer, which means I could still settle with the sheep in the first ring later on. I didn't realize that at the time. Otoh, getting him to retreat his settler is pretty good, too.

I immediately convert into Judaism to alleviate unhappiness in Tenochtitlan. This possibly should not be a long term switch for diplo purposes but it will be very nice bonus short term.

Spoiler :
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Workers spread out. We can start the whip cycle next turn : Whip/chop, Whip/chop, Overflow/chop.

Spoiler :
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Abort, abort ! So, Korea beats us to it with a T67 Oracle. This is fair game and completely fine.
We started "going for it" on T60. The thing to understand it that the Oracle routinely isn't built by T70, perhaps 1 in 10 games. And if you never "go for it", then you never get it.
So what was the cost of this attempt ?
- Some worker turns, sure. Putting chops into the Granaries of cities 4-5 would have been a better use.
- some :science: equity from raising the slider before Tenochtitlan has its Library, sure.

Not much more. For what potential gain ? Around 13 turns of research towards CoL, which :
- allows to bank gold towards another tech ;
- immediately ends the maintenance control phase and allows full REx.
This sort of momentum, at this point of the game (6 cities, 5 workers), is completely broken. And you should go for it, reader.

Every time I complete a T70 Oracle, somebody in the comments cannot help himself : "Oh, this is so lucky !" And that person completely misses the point.
It's probably the same person who completes his wonder on 2 cities at T50.
This is not to be mean but to illustrate the costs-benefits of a wonder play. Who cares if you complete the GLH on T50 ? With 2 cities you cannot make use of it.
What about The Pyramids being completed 25 turns before the first Library ? Or that 2 cities Oracle -> CoL. You probably shot yourself in the foot with those moves.
The return on your wonders depends directly on the Empire you've already set up.
Rushing wonders at the cost of setting up is not a good play. It both increases the opportunity costs and limits the returns.

Here, we're already set up and in no way dependent on completing The Oracle. This is the reason why the gains would be so huge,
And the reason why the cost has been minimal.

Anyway ...

The Oracle "race" has been "lost" and it is time to "recover".
Spoiler :
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I think I can turn up research this turn. Judaism spread has continued nicely (SB sent 3 missionarie).
Nobody has Alphabet, yet, and I will burn my gold right before I complete my Academy, but I think getting CoL is worth it.

Spoiler :
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This is the dotmap in the north. Dotmpap In The North !
Texcoco and Tlaxcala will provide the settlers.

:egypt::hatsoff::clap::woohoo:
 
T107 :
Spoiler :
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This is Worker 16 speaking. This map is kind of wild. I can't remember the last time I peacefully expanded to 9 cities/16 workers, much less on Deity with 4 neighbours :crazyeye:
So, from 1000 BC, I've researched Code of Laws and Fishing, which gave trades for Animal Husbandry, Maths, Alpha, IW, Monarchy, Sailing, Calendar, kind of everything,
Spent a little time in Caste System to pop borders in the north, switched back to Slavery and overall ignored the possibility of religion, which may have been a mistake because no Organized Religion. Otoh, since I went from 5 to 16 workers (:lol:), I don't have a ton of infra to show anyway.
Korea is at war with both Celtia and Russia since forever, so diplo is extremely safe, but I switched out of Judaism to ensure trades with Boudicca. I've also received a lot of demands that I did not give in. I'm not sure how both of those points weight against each other (Org Rel vs no Org Rel).
Now, I've just researched my 2nd tech, Civil Service, and switched into Bureau + Caste, still without religion. The Merchants in Teotihuacan are place holders, I think they should be scientists.

I would like to attempt Liberalism --> Rifling but the AIs hate each other so much they are really slow (I wasn't even anyone's worst ennemy for the short time I spent in Judaism). Replaceable Parts notably require Banking and, at the moment, nobody has Machinery or Feudalism.

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I should backfill Polytheism at some point, perhaps this turn. I would like a trade for Monotheism with Sitting Bull.

So, I think I need to "wait on the AIs" a little, here, for trades. And that makes a Great Merchant less appealing (Temple of Artemis in Celtia).
Otoh, I would like to rush Oxford University, and that makes a Great Scientist more appealing. I will need Judaism + Organized Religion for Universities. <-- I think this is the better way ?
Astronomy is also sort of a thought but I don't think it can compare with a military tech.
Peter has been snagging all the wonders (Pyramids, GLH and MoM), so I suppose getting Macemen and backstabbing him asap could be considered.
A final option would be getting some trade bait, instead of trying for Education, but there isn't any clear tech that's appealing to me.

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Tenochtitlan is coming along nicely. Irrigation will be a revolution to the south east, because it has reached its limit for the moment.

Thoughts ?

Demographics and stats, for what they are worth :
Spoiler :
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I did some reloading, so play time should be higher.

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Peter is n°1 in GNP.


edit : So... I think perhaps Music should be the tech target, if I can get there first.
It helps stock up on trade material, which I lack thoroughly,
It has a :science: cost but the Golden Age at the end helps offset it,
I need a little time to spread religion in the North but GA would also make it easier to choose "between" a Great Scientist and a Merchant (get both).
 

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No edits to this map? The land is incredible. I'm playing it on Immortal because I think the Sacrificial Alter with the Spiritual trait is the most fun you can have with a unique building.

Spoiler :
I don't think I've ever seen 3 corn tiles next to each other like that. I settled almost identically to Born in Canteloup , except I can't even imagine pulling it off on Deity. I went Wheel->Pottery->Mining->BW->Alpha, cottaged up immediately with all the over-lap and crazy amount of food. I think I whipped the capital only once or twice total. All that sweet, sweet land to the north was just...available. Most importantly: our only source of horses. My situation at 75AD



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Wonders were going late so I made a failed attempt at the Pyramids. Spiritual rep/police state/slavery/caste system would be fun. In my game there is a lovefest with only Sitting Bull left out. So with such a strong capital, such easy diplomacy and trading, and so much strong land it will be a standard cuirassier/cavalry/cannons finish.
 
No edits to this map?
Yup. Didn't even need to do any resource swaps to give AIs nearby strategic resources or rescue any seafood from guaranteed unworkable locations...unless I was just too lazy to do the latter because I so rarely get to do zero edits to a map. One or the other :rolleyes:.
 
It took a while, but here is finally my T100 update:
Spoiler :

Cities:
Narrowly lost the wine/stone spot to SB. Founded Calix (fish gem site) and Xochi (corn dye site) in 525 BC. There was some tension near Calix with a barb archer, which I managed to deflect with a second warrior, which successfully defended against it in a jungle. I briefly switched into Caste to get a 3-turn border pop in each city. I'm not seeing any clear avenues for settlement except one coastal backfill. I could try to conquer the barb cities though.

Tech:
I managed to chop + whip out the Oracle per @BornInCantaloup 's advice and got it in 800 BC :dance:
I took CoL and Confu was founded in Tlate. Then I went Maths, which was probably a mistake, as Monarchy was the bigger priority. After that, I was on 0% for a long time, only briefly breaking the fast to tech Fishing. WK finally got Alpha in 600 BC. I could have put some turns into Alpha to trade it for Maths, but I wasn't sure what Wang was going for so I decided to cash in right away and take IW from him. Peter is now 4 turns away from Alpha. Nobody except Wang has Alpha
However, it feels very counterintuitive to self-tech it. I really need Monarchy right now. 79 bpt, not the best, but also not the worst. The northern cities are going to boom soon though, especially once I get Calendar.

GP:
Got a GS in Theo in 675 BC and decided to save it for Philo. Academies are nice but my reasoning was that Paci and Caste have synergy with Spiritual and are a means towards getting more GS. Getting that Academy would have delayed the second GS quite a lot.

Religion:
As I said above, I founded Confu. However, Buddhism (SB's religion) spread to Texcoco in 600 BC, and I switched to it in 450 BC. Both SB and WK are Buddhist. Meanwhile, Peter and Boudi are Jewish.

Foreign:
As you can see, I got WK to pleased. Boudi, on the other hand, started plotting in t93 after I refused to cancel deals with WK. When I switched to Buddhism, she became Annoyed. She is most likely plotting on me and can reach me through Russia. Need to keep an eye on that northern border. SB is not pleased yet. He is stacking for the barb cities. I will probably lose the northeastern barb city to him as he already has a military ready to go. He will flip the corn from Xochi.

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Some comments for you :)
Spoiler :
Well played on the Oracle :goodjob:

Then I went Maths, which was probably a mistake, as Monarchy was the bigger priority.
I think this is correctly identified (which, obv, is easier in retrospect), especially since the Oracle -> CoL line already opened Monarchy for you.
If we go back in time a little : Tenochtitlan has huge potential as a Bureau cap because of its triple corn. Monarchy helps unlock that potential.
Maths, in most cases, I would consider as trading material, not to be self teched. Although it isn't a tech the AIs trade easily, so it can be uncomfortable to "wait on it" for a long time.
There's always uncertainty in the trading game and this is an area where it's actually easier to tech up on Deity than it is on Immortal, because the trading game is so much more favourable :mischief:

WK finally got Alpha in 600 BC. I could have put some turns into Alpha to trade it for Maths, but I wasn't sure what Wang was going for so I decided to cash in right away and take IW from him. Peter is now 4 turns away from Alpha. Nobody except Wang has Alpha
This is more problematic, not in navigating the trades but from a strategic point of view. Alpha being late is bad but this isn't on you. However, you didn't unlock trades with Sitting Bull, Peter and Boudica,
Despite having CoL + Maths.
Let's say you don't want to put turns into Alpha to trade Maths for it,
Give/trade Meditation to Wang, Give/trade Priesthood to Wang --> Trade Alphabet for CoL. CoL has value but not so huge that you should keep it as a monopoly.
Open your save and look what civics the AIs are running. There's a pretty big chance that Monarchy is/was already up for trade, no ? Perhaps some other useful stuff.
So, I fear that by keeping a hold on Meditation -> CoL, you artificially put yourself in a NoTechTrades situation.
600 BC is only 9 turns ago, I shouldn't be dramatic :lol: Getting Alphabet yourself opens up 3 extra trade partners is the message.

Got a GS in Theo in 675 BC and decided to save it for Philo
I would go all in on the Bureau cap but there is a fair argument for this decision. It's probably just as valid.
Remember that you will need to spread religion accordingly ;)

Boudi, on the other hand, started plotting in t93 after I refused to cancel deals with WK.
You can (and should) check if her Worst Ennemy status has changed but that, indeed, reads like she was triggered to start plotting.

SB is not pleased yet. He is stacking for the barb cities. I will probably lose the northeastern barb city to him as he already has a military ready to go. He will flip the corn from Xochi.
You may very well be right (you know best) but there's no sight on this on the map at t100. I would at least consider using the unhappies in Tlaxcala to 2 pop whip an Axeman into Axeman and try for the barb city. AIs often launch an assault and fail, giving nearby units very good odds at an opportunity capture.
If you fail on Avar (station 1N), you can head towards Harappan for a retry.

ps: you're going to need a lot of workers for your northern cities, like 3 per city (use your judgement), if you manage to unlock happiness and want to develop the riverside fast enough.

:)
 
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