Hmph. AGCEEP has really evil event bugs.
I played as Ak Koyunlu, the little nation next to Otto. Well, I went through few years of peace, until I conquered Kurdistan from Kara Koyunlu. Then; 60 years of peace. After that Kara Koyunly got "Jahan Shah" events, which occured a war between me and Kara. Perfectly realistic. When I luckily got a peace treaty(they had 60k troops, I had 13k, but no provinces were anymore occupied). Then Jahan Shah died, and "growing Ak Koyunlu conquered Kara Koyunlu."
So I controlled provinces between Trabzon and Hormouz. Nice. Early 15XX I got an event, where my empire split between two heirs, Ahmad and Murad. Realistic, Iraq got in event the whole Persia. But then. I got an event about rise of the Safavids. 30k revolt in Azerbaijan. But I won with my 35k cavalry army. Then I got an event, where Safavids got independence BECAUSE I LOST THE BATTLE!? Man, there were no rebel survivors! In that event all my troops, which were in Azerbaijan, disbanded.
Nice. Well, a good reason to change the game I play(LBA2, here I come!).