Peny for your thoughts.

[Hammurbabble]

Sorry but my experiences greatly contradict this. On Monarch+ I have little hope for a religion even with Mysticism and an oasis. (Yes, I was beat by the AI even starting next to an oasis, believe that was on Emperor though.)

On any difficulty above Noble, you will almost always be beaten by the AI if you're researching the same first tech and start at the same time. That's no more true on Deity than it is on Prince, any extra advantages there are just overkill. The only way you get one of the two starting religions is if you're researching one of them and the AI is researching the other. Still, I've found that's true more often than not if you go for Poly. Not EVERY time, but most of the time.

The test I made with the five starts is to check whether it was so out of balance that an AI would have time to start researching Mysticism, get beat out by another AI, and then research Poly, beating you even though you started with Poly. I wanted to test that because in my normal play I'm on Prince about ready to move up to Monarch, so I doubted it but wasn't really sure. That appears not to be the case.

While I agree that the AI seems to go for Meditation over Polytheism, I frequently have two civs that start with Mysticism in my games, and often the first two religions are founded within a couple turns of each other (and both before I get to them.) The main factor seems to be how many rival civs are in the game. I always play with 9-10 civs which is part of the reason I'm almost always beat. I don't understand the dynamic completely, but losing the Poly race even with an oasis was pretty disheartening.

I usually play on Large maps with 8 opponents (9 civs total including me). If I start with Mysticism, I almost always get one of the opening religions. My test on Deity was slightly smaller, normal size with 7 opponents, but let's do some calculations based on my usual play. Let's also assume that I'm going to lose the race if I and an AI are going after the same thing, which is true most of the time on the difficulty I play or higher.

There are a total of 34 civs, 10 of which start with Mysticism. Since I'm playing as one of those, the game chooses among 33 civs of which 9 start with Mysticism. It picks 8 of them, with a 27% chance for any one of them to start with Mysticism. On the average 2 of them will.

Now, I don't know what the odds are for their first research among Meditation, Polytheism, and something else, but let me just pick a figure out of a hat and say that 80% of the time they'll go Meditation, 10% Polytheism, and 10% something else. If that's true, then there would be a 90% chance of you beating either of them if you go for Polytheism, because you'll be researching it and they won't. Basic probability theory then says there's an 81% chance you'll beat both of them, i.e., that neither of the two will be researching Poly to start. Which is about what I found in my test.

That's if you're playing on Prince or above, where you almost automatically lose if you're going for the same thing as the AI right out the starting gate. And it doesn't matter how much above Noble, either. Deity is no harder for this than Prince, or shouldn't be. On Noble, half the time you'll beat the AI even if you do race them, and below that you should win just about every time. So figure you've got about an 80% chance on Prince and above, a 90% chance on Noble, and so close to 100% it doesn't matter below that.

I don't know if those figures are right or not, but this fits with my own play experience as well as my test.

Edit: Just for grins, let me do the same thing if you DON'T start with Mysticism. (You're crazy to go for one of the early religions in that case, but what the heck.)

The game still picks 8 AI civs, but this time there are 10 out of the 33 possibilities that start with Mysticism, because yours ISN'T one of them. So that's a 33% chance for each, giving an average of 2.64. So more often than not, there will be THREE.

Same assumption as before, you're going to lose if you're racing out the starting gate. Let's say you beeline for Poly. Now, on Prince certainly, the AI can't research both Meditation and Poly faster than you can research Mysticism and Poly. Is there a difficulty where that becomes possible for it? If so, you're totally hosed and forget it at that level and above. If not, then again it comes down to a question of whether you have someone competing with you out the start, only there's an extra player a bit over half the time.

So -- if there are only two civs with Mysticism, you have an 80% chance approximately just like if you started with it, but if there are three, that chance drops to 73%. The actual chance will be somewhere between those two. Still not too shabby actually! (But I don't recommend this gamble, because you'll use up too much research time doing it. Better to take on someone else's religion in this case.)

 

[InFlux5]

Well obviously this is all very anecdotal. All I know is even Poly is a crap shoot on Monarch+. It could just be bad luck. But while it does seem the computer prefers Meditation to Poly, I would hardly estimate it at 90%/10%.

For me the issue becomes whether you are willing to stick with it for Monotheism. Rarely do I focus on religion in my games, but when I do I usually end up getting my first one from Mono. It's not a bad investment as Organized Religion is a great civic for Spiritual civs. Also, at that point I am probably gunning for the Apostolic Palace and the various benefits it confers.

In other words, I've stopped looking at Poly to give me a religion; every time I plan it that way I get beat.

 

[Hammurbabble]

Well obviously this is all very anecdotal. All I know is even Poly is a crap shoot on Monarch+. It could just be bad luck.

I think so. And it isn't all anecdotal; it's a fact that the AI researches faster than you do on Prince +. So if you get a religion most of the time on Prince, you'll do it on Deity, too.

But while it does seem the computer prefers Meditation to Poly, I would hardly estimate it at 90%/10%.

I just plugged that in because the result fit my test on the five Deity starts, and also my own experience. I used to go for Hinduism even when I DIDN'T start with Mysticism, call me crazy. I've learned better. But really, if you do start with M, there's no reason not to. It's not going to be any harder on Deity than it is on Prince. The dividing lines for this purpose are Warlord to Noble (when you stop having an advantage) and then Noble to Prince (when you start being disadvantaged).

For me the issue becomes whether you are willing to stick with it for Monotheism. Rarely do I focus on religion in my games, but when I do I usually end up getting my first one from Mono.

Hmm. It's a thought, but here's my feeling. Researching an early religion for 12 turns is slightly delaying your first settler, because you need Bronze Working to efficiently chop it out. The benefits of founding a religion are strong enough that a 12-turn delay is worth it, but I think delaying through Poly, Masonry, and Mono (and maybe Writing? I forget) is too long by far. So my new strategy is:

A) If I start with Mysticism, research Polytheism first. Odds are, that will give me Hinduism. If it doesn't, though, go to B.

B) If I don't start with Mysticism, or if someone beats me to Poly, go to Mining/Bronze Working. Build a warrior, or maybe two, then a worker, and then chop out a settler. Go through the worker techs, Priesthood, and Writing. Then look around at what's happening religiously. If there's at least one religion floating around, try to adopt that instead of beelining for whatever's still open. If not, odds are there's still time to chop out the Oracle and slingshot to Code of Laws for Confucianism.

So far, that's worked pretty well.

 

[Bleys]

Well obviously this is all very anecdotal. All I know is even Poly is a crap shoot on Monarch+.

It would be simple enough to create your own experiment with this, probably wouldnt even take you an hour to run a big pile of random data for yourself. It is over 80% you get Hinduism, I have done it bunches of times, and its around 20% you get it without starting with Myst, on Immortal. THATS the crap shoot, starting with Myst its a piece of cake to get Hinduism.The question is "is it worth it?", I feel it isnt on Emp and above, and I am about 50/50 on Monarch being "worth it", because I am usually headed to CoL with the Oracle, or planning to bulb Theocracy, and planning to conquer at least one other holy-city before too long, and thats all I generally worry about for religion in non-religious-specialty games.

Honestly, doing too much mixing and matching of different lines of progress through the early game is detrimental on higher levels.

 

[madscientist]

One more post on topic, founding early religions.

They are dependent primarily on how many leaders start with Mysticism, which is more map size dependent than anything else. Your main rivals are Isabella because she can work fishing at the get go and HC/WK because they are financial. They also have a preference for the cheaper tech of meditation. My expereince is that if you have at least 1 commerce tile at the start, and a second at pop 2 you have a good chance at getting the religion. Nothing is ever guarenteed, but the payoff is worth it, especially with the Celts who have no real economical advantage in traits or UB.

Regarding Archery, well everyone at this point should know my preference for it.

 

[sylvanllewelyn]

dayhjawk: My experiences tell me that the HRE is one of the hardest civs to play as. Two worst traits in the game, a defensive UU and a subtle UB. Definitely my vote for "worst leader". I would very much like someone to teach me how to use this civ myself. Kickass UB? Really? Shaka could do nearly as well.

Just because you don't start with mysticism and you have no chance to found a religion doesn't mean you don't need to research it. You still need the monuments for your second/third city, deity difficulty or not. It sucks but it's inevitable. Get a creative leader if it concerns you so much.

Early wonders are overrated: my favourite early national wonder is "one more city" and my favourite world wonder is "stack of axeman". I would even dare to say that pyramids and representation is overrated, since you'd need a military force that could produce the same amount of hapiness with hereditiary rule anyway (or you get destroyed), and then you could stick a large stack of archers in your GP farm. The pyramids cost a lot of hammers, hammers that could've been spent elsewhere.

If I really want early wonder power: found religion, build Stonehenge as the Celts. Build temple, shoot for early religious shrine. That much hapiness and economic support is no joke. Boudicca could warmonger for a long time before courthouses are necessary.

 

[Hammurbabble]

starting with Myst its a piece of cake to get Hinduism.The question is "is it worth it?", I feel it isnt on Emp and above, and I am about 50/50 on Monarch being "worth it", because I am usually headed to CoL with the Oracle, or planning to bulb Theocracy, and planning to conquer at least one other holy-city before too long, and thats all I generally worry about for religion in non-religious-specialty games.

Honestly, doing too much mixing and matching of different lines of progress through the early game is detrimental on higher levels.

Well, we'll see if I agree with you after playing a few games at Monarch and above; I just made the transition from Prince and am doing well in my first Monarch game. However, I'm playing as Ethiopia, and so did not go for Poly out the door. Huayna is my neighbor and he cheerfully gave me Buddhism, so there's no need.

My feeling is, as I said, and yes this is pure theory, 12 turns isn't that big a deal considering what it gets you. I could use the income from a shrine that Huayna's raking in right now, which becomes peanuts on the scale of the late game but in the beginning it's a lot of dough. I seldom do an early rush, which is the only thing it would seriously slow down. And even that, not all that seriously.