I should have been clearer. These variables are ENTIRELY about city-state-vs-empire relationships, and there's not that directionality issue; the difference between the two is in what YOU have been categorized as by the AI.
My guess is that these variables' chance values are used to decide whether a city-state you're already at war with (for any reason, whether they're allied to someone you declared on or whether you declared on them directly) decides to make that state permanent instead of just allowing you to go back to a peace state (albeit at -60 Influence) the moment you make peace with their main ally.
The first variable was the chance that this would occur under normal conditions, while the second was the chance that this would occur after you'd been labeled "Warmonger", which has a very specific meaning to the diplomacy AI. Basically, if you've conquered (or just declared war on, I forget) two city-states you get labeled "Aggressor", which causes a few specific variables to increase, and if you conquer four you get labeled "Warmonger" and another set of values get used. Obviously, a city-state's going to be less likely to forgive and forget if you've got a history of conquering other city-states, hence the separation between these two variables. And once you get that status you never lose it, so you can't conquer the local city-states and then later on hope to ally with the ones you discover on another continent.