I don't think Firaxis set any expectations for number of simultaneous players of Steam at all. It's pretty meaningless metric by itself and since Civ7 is still primary SP game (until they finish some planned features) and has large focus on consoles, it's even more meaningless.
Again, are you seriously implying that Firaxis set out to have ten thousand less player on average playing VII than Civ V a month or so after launch? Of course, Firaxis is lookng at the number of simultaneous players, they want active playerbase so they can sell them DLC.
Also where are all these hypothetical console players? The game is no where to be found in the list of top sold and downloaded games on these consoles and almost all metrics of engagement (number of reviews for example) that can be found point to consoles having a small fraction of the players.
So if you don't have any information, no one has? Sure it's hard to navigate this thread and its predecessor as they are drowned in watching two simple metrics, but occasionally there are valuable points of information, for example:
- We had an approximate number of physical copies of the game for PS sold through Amazon in UK. Adjusting this by physical/digital ration, share of Amazon, share of UK and share of PS, this gives some number.
- We have estimation of total Civilization units sold in the recent years by April, which includes Civ7 and gives some upper limit.
- We have information about drop in total number of Civilization (all titles) players on Steam, meaning most of them moved to other platforms
- We have list of best-selling games in USA since the beginning of the year and some numbers on other games in the list
- We have some articles mentioning Civ7 position in top sale list for some particular countries, platforms and time periods
We have plenty of information to make an educated assumption that the game did not do anywhere near as well as Firaxis and 2k hoped
1. This UK list was physical only, most people are not buying physical and many games are not sold physically anymore... and it only topped this list once at release. Yeah sure if I play with imaginary numbers you can make them say what you want to them but this list is almost useless in the context of this conversation.
2. Estimations are estimates and still most estimates put VII's numbers below VI's sales.
3. What....? In what world do you think most Civ players have moved to consoles?
4. 2025 has had almost no real competition as far as AAA releases go this year and it's still Civ was outpreformed by AA titles like Kingdom Come
6. No we don't after launch and again, Civ had no real competition at it's release. It should be on the top of these lists still but it isn't.
etc.
Individually none of this is proof enough, but if you ever worked with things like market analysis, it paints a pretty complete picture. By April Civ7 sold 2-2.5M units, with at least half being outside Steam.
None of these are proof at all. it's just grasping at straws and straight making up numbers...
Where on earth are you pulling out estimates that have Civ 7 selling 2 million and half of those are not on PC? Even most game analytic sites still put its sales at only around 1 million. (Civ VII sold 1 million in its first two weeks on PC alone)