Player stats, sales, and reception speculation thread

[Kwami]

I can't believe they gave up on making some kind of sequel to fix the fundamental issues - they could have destroyed Civ.

Who says they won't make Humankind 2 at some point? They've made sequels to all of their other games.

 

[Bug Repellent]

Another difference between Civ7 and its predecessors is the poor player reviews on Steam. Neither Civ5 or Civ6 had a mostly negative rating 4 months after release. Civ7 does, and this, with near certainty, is hurting sales. I'm sure this is worrying Firaxis, since to date only 10% of Civ6 buyers have purchased Civ7, so Civ7 has a long way to go sales-wise.

 

[GeneralZift]

Who says they won't make Humankind 2 at some point? They've made sequels to all of their other games.

I read and heard from some people that they would no longer consider it. No clue if that's true.

 

[Leucarum]

For me it was the combat system and the city building which killed humankind for me. Civ switching was neither here nor there, their fundamental systems turned me off...

 

[Kwami]

I read and heard from some people that they would no longer consider it. No clue if that's true.

Ah. Well, but who knows? Plans change, right? I think the only problem might be if Sega has some hold on the IP.

For me it was the combat system and the city building which killed humankind for me. Civ switching was neither here nor there, their fundamental systems turned me off...

Yeah... Humankind was really fun at first, but it got really messy as the game went on. It had a lot of systems that just didn't really work out. Maybe it's better after all the patches and DLC? I don't know.

I really didn't like the civ switching, though. Not because I'm opposed to the idea in general; I like it in Civ VII for the most part. What I didn't like in Humankind was that everyone switches at their own time and there are so many eras that I had a hard time keeping track of who I was playing against.

 

[Gorbles]

It's just interesting numbers with lots of variables you can play with to get all kinds of results, which I thought might be interesting to discuss. That's why I tried to show a range and how you could play with the numbers. It wasn't intended as a personal attack or to beat a dead horse.

Late, potentially-irrelevant clarification: comment wasn't aimed at the napkin math stuff. That's probably the most constructive guesstimating we've had in the past two pages

 

[trev1972]

I personally think the upcoming update (out tomorrow?) is a big effort to pull people back.
I expect a surge of players after its release, how big it will be and how long it will last will be interesting.

 

[Dreadnought]

Given the player counts we see for concurrent players, I don't think 100,000 unique players a day is out of the question, although I'd figure it to be closer to 80,000, assuming that players typically play for an hour or two at a time. In a given week, however, I doubt it gets insanely higher because the core playerbase would likely be the same individuals over a week as it is over a day. I'd estimate about 160,000 to 200,000 unique players in a given week timeframe on Steam.

Thus my messy estimate for DLC sales if they happen at this time would be Firaxis looking to target those 160,000 players. How many would actually get the DLC day one and not wait for a sale is another story.

 

[Bug Repellent]

I personally think the upcoming update (out tomorrow?) is a big effort to pull people back.
I expect a surge of players after its release, how big it will be and how long it will last will be interesting.

The devs are certainly working really hard to court us back and I do wish them luck. For me though, w/o a game mode to play w/o civ switching and the ability to remove non civ leaders from the game I won't jump in. This requires additional world leaders to compensate the loss of of some of the current non-world leaders, so this patch isn't enough to make me pay $100 and more importantly, play the game. That being said, any additional game customization will help the game. No doubt.

 

[Kyriakos]

Is there any stat for Civ7 that allows optimism? For I feel we already know those stats which promote pessimism. Eg, maybe there was an unexpected boost following an announcement or patch etc etc.
Also, when will the next feature-pack arrive? (for example modding tools or anticipated leaders or civs or other changes)
If the code becomes available (iirc it did for some previous Civ game) people can just uncode the features they don't like.

 

[stealth_nsk]

Is there any stat for Civ7 that allows optimism? For I feel we already know those stats which promote pessimism. Eg, maybe there was an unexpected boost following an announcement or patch etc etc.
Also, when will the next feature-pack arrive? (for example modding tools or anticipated leaders or civs or other changes)
If the code becomes available (iirc it did for some previous Civ game) people can just uncode the features they don't like.

First, the optimism and pessimism are subjective things. We don't know what targets Firaxis have.

From my point of view we have more optimistic data than pessimistic:
1. Positive. Civ7 had record presale numbers, as stated by 2K
2. Positive. We have several sources of info pointing that sales outside Steam are at least as big as Steam this time
3. Neutral. Number of simultaneous players on Steam shows pretty expected dynamics for a game without any promo sales or big expansions
4. Negative. Steam user reviews are very likely much lower than Firaxis expected by this point

 

[Alexander's Hetaroi]

For what it's worth (and it's not worth very much), I haven't seen Civ VII listed as a top-selling Switch 2 game anywhere. I'm not sure that is surprising or even data at this point.

https://support.civilization.com/hc...ivilization-VII-Nintendo-Switch-2-Version-FAQ
Probably because there is no official Switch 2 version. You have to buy a Switch version and upgrade it.

 

[TylertheDestroyer]

First, the optimism and pessimism are subjective things. We don't know what targets Firaxis have.

From my point of view we have more optimistic data than pessimistic:
1. Positive. Civ7 had record presale numbers, as stated by 2K
2. Positive. We have several sources of info pointing that sales outside Steam are at least as big as Steam this time
3. Neutral. Number of simultaneous players on Steam shows pretty expected dynamics for a game without any promo sales or big expansions
4. Negative. Steam user reviews are very likely much lower than Firaxis expected by this point

I think we can all comfortable agree that Firaxis' target wasn't releasing a title to overwhelmingly negative user review and the game having ten thousand less players on average than its 15 year old predessecor

Also no where do we have sources pointing to the sales outside of steam are anywhere near as big as Steam sales. The playstation store has 3k reviews to Steams 30k....I have no idea how you could construe the fact that the game has less players than Civ V on steam a " neutral"...? Let's be real, it's kind of bit delusional to still be pretending that this game hasn't flopped and that everything is going well at Firaxis HQ at this point

 

[Civinator]

Is there any stat for Civ7 that allows optimism?

It is the stat of the different versions of the Civ series. They managed to stabilize every version of the Civ series, even when having a rough start. As I wrote in several posts, it is possible to secure Civ 7 when doing the fixes properly.

 

[queenpea]

https://support.civilization.com/hc...ivilization-VII-Nintendo-Switch-2-Version-FAQ
Probably because there is no official Switch 2 version. You have to buy a Switch version and upgrade it.

No, I don't think so. The "upgrades", including for games like the Zelda series, are included in top selling Switch 2 games. The system didn't launch with a great deal of Switch 2 games available, so I guess they have to count upgrade packs as game sales.

 

[user746383]

The most unequivocally positive metric is they sold lots of copies in presale.

 

[queenpea]

The most unequivocally positive metric is they sold lots of copies in presale.

There is also the quote from the CEO (?) of 2K saying they were happy with sales, if I remember correctly?

 

[Alexander's Hetaroi]

No, I don't think so. The "upgrades", including for games like the Zelda series, are included in top selling Switch 2 games. The system didn't launch with a great deal of Switch 2 games available, so I guess they have to count upgrade packs as game sales.

Interesting. I did see the list and was surprised to see that 2 versions of "Tears of the Kingdom" were on it. Strange it counts both versions as separate games.
Though my point being is there is no standalone Switch 2 edition for Civ VII. That means if you wanted to play on the Switch 2 you have to buy a Switch 1 version and then upgrade it, so I wouldn't be surprised if many people either don't know, or don't like the way it is being handled.

 

[queenpea]

Interesting. I did see the list and was surprised to see that 2 versions of "Tears of the Kingdom" were on it. Strange it counts both versions as separate games.
Though my point being is there is no standalone Switch 2 edition for Civ VII. That means if you wanted to play on the Switch 2 you have to buy a Switch 1 version and then upgrade it, so I wouldn't be surprised if many people either don't know, or don't like the way it is being handled.

Yeah, it's a silly thing. I guess it is (partially) why the Switch version was at a lower price point than PC / other consoles at launch.

 

[Alexander's Hetaroi]

Yeah, it's a silly thing. I guess it is (partially) why the Switch version was at a lower price point than PC / other consoles at launch.

Most original Switch games continue to be sold for around $60 max. So, it's not surprising with the Switch 2 that they upped the price to close to $70-$80 price range mirroring all other consoles.